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Some former Marlin stars are suddenly missing, but not because of their salaries. It was contracts to Prado, Volquez, Ziegler, Tazawa and Chen that sunk the ship. Those total about $55 million for 2018 alone – that’s right, more than Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich and Gordon combined. All for players that don’t matter a bit and, frankly, never figured to matter to those outside the team’s front office.
The starting pitching staff returns a cast of proven mediocrity (Straily and Urena), broken promise (Nicolino, Conley, and of course Chen, who actually seems to be broken), and some looming talent. With volumes of statistical data available these days, it’s easy to lose track of the one stat that tells the entire story: WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched). No matter how quick the fastball, how crisp the slider, the bottom line is limiting the number of hitters who reach base. Low WHIP and success align perfectly. Really good pitchers keep it under 1.25. Top pitchers get it much lower. Thing is, if a pitcher can’t dominate with a low WHIP number in the minors, they certainly can’t be expected to do it in the majors. With that in mind, at least three credible rotation guys stand out, all mature arms. Over nearly 100 innings in AAA last season, Caleb Smith went 9-1 with a 1.05 WHIP. The lefty, acquired from the Yankees, was his team’s top starter. Another lefty, Dillon Peters, put up a 1.00 WHIP over two minor league seasons before getting six starts for the Marlins in September. Results were mixed, but his first and last starts were outstanding, as in no runs over 12 1/3 innings. Trevor Richards, a righty, was the farm’s Pitcher of the Year. In 146 innings split between A+ and AA, his WHIP stood at 1.03. A fourth farmhand seems just a couple months of AA ball away. Ben Meyer tossed 111 innings, mostly for Jupiter, with a ridiculous .93 WHIP. He is recognized as the top control artist in the organization. All four of these future rookies strike out at least a hitter an inning. While the Miami organization has announced that reliever Jarlin Garcia will be shifted to a starting role, his numbers as a starter in the minors don’t support the move.
Future hopefuls, acquired in trades, should form an interesting AA Jacksonville rotation (along with Meyer). Nick Niedert, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Jordan Yamamoto will be battling to produce the lowest WHIP number.
The bullpen features somewhat dependable Drew Steckenrider and Kyle Barraclough, late-inning fireballers with marginal control. Stumbling incumbents Ziegler and Tazawa will return, solely in the hope that they can improve enough to draw trade interest. With Miami committed to a 13-man staff, that will leave openings for four of Nick Wittgren, Brian Ellington, Odrisamer Despaigne, Adam Conley, Chris O’Grady, Rule-Five signees Elieser Hernandez and Brett Graves, and either Caleb Smith or Garcia. Reinforcements, fortunately, are not far off. Andy Beltre, Merandy Gonzalez, Marcus Crescentini and others excelled in A+ ball last season.
The offense, minus four starters from last season, features two reliable returnees. Justin Bour is a healthy full-season away from being a star. Without injury, he projects as 40 HR/120 RBI in the clean-up spot. JT Realmuto is on the verge of becoming baseball’s best catcher. If he can lift his Marlin Park hitting marks to anywhere near his road totals, that’s a done deal. Starlin Castro is a solid pro who should produce hitting third in the order. While the club has him penciled in at 2B, I surmise that there will be discussion of moving him to SS. While Castro may not be a plus glove at short, he is certainly a double plus hitter compared to Riddle or Rojas, the only other options. A Castro/Dietrich MI combo represents a huge offensive upgrade, which is likely to be needed. Instead, Mattingly has introduced Dietrich as his Opening Day left fielder. That’s a curious decision. If defense is valued so highly that Castro stays at second, what in the world is Dietrich doing in the OF? Brinson, Lee and Sierra are great defensive talents and rookies who will only grow with experience. If one thing will breed excitement at Marlin games this season, it will be the blazing speed of those three. Third base belongs to Prado for the same reason Ziegler and Tazawa will be in the pen – the team is stuck with him. Brian Anderson will have to begin the season in AAA, awaiting Prado’s next pulled muscle.
Given the current intention to play Rojas and Dietrich regularly, the four reserve roles will likely belong to Telis and three of Riddle, Sierra, Lee, and Garrett Cooper. Cooper, acquired from the Yankees along with Caleb Smith, had a huge AAA season last year. He is a first baseman/corner OF with questionable skills at the latter.
Prediction: Only 99 losses.
The starting pitching staff returns a cast of proven mediocrity (Straily and Urena), broken promise (Nicolino, Conley, and of course Chen, who actually seems to be broken), and some looming talent. With volumes of statistical data available these days, it’s easy to lose track of the one stat that tells the entire story: WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched). No matter how quick the fastball, how crisp the slider, the bottom line is limiting the number of hitters who reach base. Low WHIP and success align perfectly. Really good pitchers keep it under 1.25. Top pitchers get it much lower. Thing is, if a pitcher can’t dominate with a low WHIP number in the minors, they certainly can’t be expected to do it in the majors. With that in mind, at least three credible rotation guys stand out, all mature arms. Over nearly 100 innings in AAA last season, Caleb Smith went 9-1 with a 1.05 WHIP. The lefty, acquired from the Yankees, was his team’s top starter. Another lefty, Dillon Peters, put up a 1.00 WHIP over two minor league seasons before getting six starts for the Marlins in September. Results were mixed, but his first and last starts were outstanding, as in no runs over 12 1/3 innings. Trevor Richards, a righty, was the farm’s Pitcher of the Year. In 146 innings split between A+ and AA, his WHIP stood at 1.03. A fourth farmhand seems just a couple months of AA ball away. Ben Meyer tossed 111 innings, mostly for Jupiter, with a ridiculous .93 WHIP. He is recognized as the top control artist in the organization. All four of these future rookies strike out at least a hitter an inning. While the Miami organization has announced that reliever Jarlin Garcia will be shifted to a starting role, his numbers as a starter in the minors don’t support the move.
Future hopefuls, acquired in trades, should form an interesting AA Jacksonville rotation (along with Meyer). Nick Niedert, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Jordan Yamamoto will be battling to produce the lowest WHIP number.
The bullpen features somewhat dependable Drew Steckenrider and Kyle Barraclough, late-inning fireballers with marginal control. Stumbling incumbents Ziegler and Tazawa will return, solely in the hope that they can improve enough to draw trade interest. With Miami committed to a 13-man staff, that will leave openings for four of Nick Wittgren, Brian Ellington, Odrisamer Despaigne, Adam Conley, Chris O’Grady, Rule-Five signees Elieser Hernandez and Brett Graves, and either Caleb Smith or Garcia. Reinforcements, fortunately, are not far off. Andy Beltre, Merandy Gonzalez, Marcus Crescentini and others excelled in A+ ball last season.
The offense, minus four starters from last season, features two reliable returnees. Justin Bour is a healthy full-season away from being a star. Without injury, he projects as 40 HR/120 RBI in the clean-up spot. JT Realmuto is on the verge of becoming baseball’s best catcher. If he can lift his Marlin Park hitting marks to anywhere near his road totals, that’s a done deal. Starlin Castro is a solid pro who should produce hitting third in the order. While the club has him penciled in at 2B, I surmise that there will be discussion of moving him to SS. While Castro may not be a plus glove at short, he is certainly a double plus hitter compared to Riddle or Rojas, the only other options. A Castro/Dietrich MI combo represents a huge offensive upgrade, which is likely to be needed. Instead, Mattingly has introduced Dietrich as his Opening Day left fielder. That’s a curious decision. If defense is valued so highly that Castro stays at second, what in the world is Dietrich doing in the OF? Brinson, Lee and Sierra are great defensive talents and rookies who will only grow with experience. If one thing will breed excitement at Marlin games this season, it will be the blazing speed of those three. Third base belongs to Prado for the same reason Ziegler and Tazawa will be in the pen – the team is stuck with him. Brian Anderson will have to begin the season in AAA, awaiting Prado’s next pulled muscle.
Given the current intention to play Rojas and Dietrich regularly, the four reserve roles will likely belong to Telis and three of Riddle, Sierra, Lee, and Garrett Cooper. Cooper, acquired from the Yankees along with Caleb Smith, had a huge AAA season last year. He is a first baseman/corner OF with questionable skills at the latter.
Prediction: Only 99 losses.
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