Rosenthal: Marlins Trade Yelich to the Brewers

[Namaste]

With Stanton, Ozuna and Gordon gone, I’m ok with the players received for Yelich. Yelich doesn’t want to be here (I don’t blame him) and we stocked the farm even more. If Toronto wouldn’t say yes to Vlad Jr, it is what it is.


WITH THAT SAID......

90% of Marlins fans are smart enough to know that EVERY prospect we acquired during this latest fire sale who blossoms into a good/great major leaguer, will ultimately be traded away for.............


MORE PROSPECTS like the ones we received today during the next firesale.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

[rmc523]

Yup. And it’s depressing lol.

[Erick]

Just got home from an abomination of a heat game and my first reaction looking more at Yamamoto's stats: Don't know if its sustainable at higher levels, but i love the kind of pitcher he is. I havent read anything about his actual stuff to this point, but he checks all the boxes performance wise for me as far as minor league starting pitching goes: goes deep into games, low walks, over a k/IP, and the appropriate age for every league he's been to. Not saying he's a good prospect at all because I havent looked into his actual stuff and how much his performance could be related to his future potential, just saying I like the actual style of pitcher he is.

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NExt question for me is what is the explanation behind Monte Harrison's improvement at the plate this season compared to his previous years? Is it sustainable? 21 hr's, 27/31 SB's, .832 OPS across 2 levels, but a lot of k's still too. He looks like a very interesting prospect too.

Looking at Diaz's stats, reminds me a bit of left handed Dan Uggla stat wise and position wise, but Uggla has a little more power seemingly. Good power for the 2b position though, lots of k's but also a really solid amount of walks and therefore a good OBP, average fielder, 4th best 2b prospect in the league according to the just released mlb.com rankings (these are for next year and not the old one's people have been quoting.).

I kinda like this trade a lot, but i want to hear more about the pitchers actual stuff and actual potential rather than just going by the numbers. I think we might have just gotten 3 future + lineup position players and an interesting looking SP prospect.

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I feel like we're getting to the time where we can maybe start projecting future teams. JT is gonna get traded and its a big question mark if we could get robles, but if we could get him we're looking pretty damn good for year 1 of a rebuild. Future at a lot of positions looks to be solidified.

1b- Bour?
2b with Diaz
3b- with Anderson, Dunand maybe
OF- Robles, Brinson, Sierra, Brian Miller, Braxton Lee, Harrison

Sp- guzman, Alcantara, Gallen, Conley, Urena, Yamamoto, Peters, Rogers, Garrett, richards, Neidert, Merandy Gonzalez, Kolek maybe.


Good start when we still have Realmuto, Castro, Straily, Bour...

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Looking into Harrison a little more, his lesser stats in his first few years might have been in part to injuries each of his first few years in the minors and this year was finally healthy for the first time. Lets hope.

Yamamoto’s best pitch is apparently a + curveball.

[fish16]

Yamamoto’s best pitch is apparently a + curveball.

given that this deal appeared to be a focus on hitting, im super OK with him as the SP prospect and #4 guy in the deal. His numbers are super impressive for a number of reasons as i highlighted.

[Swifty]

This is a pretty meh return for one of the best contracts in baseball. Arguably the best contract in baseball. You're getting a very very good young player with a chance to be a great player on an absurdly club friendly deal for the next 5 years. Unfathomable how this is part of the rebuild if it was supposedly a 3 year plan towards contention.

Also, through all of this, is there one guy who's an inevitability like Burnett or Preston Wilson were from the 97 fire sale, or Hanley was from the 06 fire sale?

Maybe we just get really excited that Bruce Sherman is going to be even wealthier?

[Erick]

Also, through all of this, is there one guy who's an inevitability like Burnett or Preston Wilson were from the 97 fire sale, or Hanley was from the 06 fire sale?

What does this mean?

[fish16]

This is a pretty meh return for one of the best contracts in baseball. Arguably the best contract in baseball. You're getting a very very good young player with a chance to be a great player on an absurdly club friendly deal for the next 5 years. Unfathomable how this is part of the rebuild if it was supposedly a 3 year plan towards contention.

Also, through all of this, is there one guy who's an inevitability like Burnett or Preston Wilson were from the 97 fire sale, or Hanley was from the 06 fire sale?

Maybe we just get really excited that Bruce Sherman is going to be even wealthier?

And we're now getting 3 potential really good players, 1-2 of which are potential stars, on even better team friendly deals with 6 years of team control for each. This is really good value for Yelich.

Our system is looking really good considering we still have JT, Straily, Bour, Starlin, Barraclough, etc to move.

[fish16]

Thursday’s Christian Yelich deal with Milwaukee netted Miami four prospects: OF Lewis Brinson, 2B Isan Diaz, OF Monte Harrison, and RHP Jordan Yamamoto. Full, deeper reports on each of these players is available on our Brewers pref list, but below are condensed summaries of each.


Lewis Brinson, CF (60 FV) – It’s important to note that Brinson opinions among scouts and executive vary pretty widely, especially for a player who has performed at the upper levels of the minors. Some people just don’t think he’s going to hit, but Brinson has made relevant swing adjustments multiple times as a pro and his strikeout rate has dropped every season. It’s been a very reasonable 20% over the last two years and he has monster complementary tools in plus power and plus speed.

If there’s anything to be worried about here, it’s Brinson’s medical history, which includes several soft-tissue lower-body injuries, like hamstring strains. If he’s ever forced to move to a corner-outfield spot (most scouts think the margin for error is pretty thin in this regard, as Brinson’s feel for center is just okay), then all aspects of Brinson’s offensive potential need to arrive if he’s going to be a star. But we know he’s a terrific athlete, we have visual evidence of him making adjustments that the data supports, and so we’re optimistic about Brinson.

Monte Harrison, CF (55 FV) – Harrison has elite physical ability. He’s a plus runner with a great chance to stay in center field, at least plus raw power, and elite arm strength. Injuries dashed his first three pro seasons but 2017 represented a breakout. Harrison both tweaked the way his hands set up pre-swing, unlocking more of power, and managed finally to sustain his health. He too often chases pitches out of the zone and probably still needs to make a few mechanical tweaks to get to all of that power so, like Brinson a few years ago, his profile is considered volatile.

Isan Diaz, 2B (50 FV) – Diaz has plus raw power and an extreme uppercut swing that magnifies other traits which make him strikeout-prone. He didn’t have a great 2017 and is a fringey defender at second base, but his gorgeous uphill swing is such that he projects to get to much of his raw power in games. Combined with his patient approach and ability to reach base, that should enable him to become a productive big leaguer.

Jordan Yamamoto, RHP (40 FV) – Yamamoto is a 6-foot righty whose high-spin fastball plays well at the letters, but it’s important for Yamamoto to live high in the zone with his heater and not allow it to loiter any further down because it’s only 89-92 and will get whacked. He also has a doozy of a curveball that projects to plus. Everything else is fringey, and we have him projected in the bullpen, where the fastball will tick up.

*****

There’s a common thread of concern that runs through each of these hitters — namely, regarding their ability to make contact. Hitters like this are invariably seen as riskier than their peers, as there’s always a chance that they can’t hit big-league pitching well enough to be any kind of big leaguer at all. We don’t truly know this until we see them hit big-league pitching (also known as the Brandon Wood allegory).

But the reasons each of them have struggled to hit — Brinson had breaking-ball recognition issues early in his career and is a long-levered guy, Harrison chases and has mediocre bat control, Diaz runs deep counts and has a steep bat path — are different, and it’s important that we know and think about that. People in player evaluation have different opinions about which of these traits can and can’t be addressed during the developmental process. It would take years of minor-league plate-discipline data to figure it out statistically, but perhaps teams already have.

The prospects Miami has gotten in return for their star big-league veterans this offseason seem to indicate a strategy that contrasts with the sort colleague Kiley McDaniel identified with regard to the Pirates. Pittsburgh has pursued near-ready, low-variance prospects who are likely to be competent big-league contributors during their pre-arb seasons. The hitters in this deal, meanwhile — and, I’d argue, most of the prospects Miami has acquired this offseason — have such loud complementary tools that they have a great chance to be effective major leaguers even if their bats don’t totally develop.

There’s a chance Sandy Alcantara and Jorge Guzman “only” become late-inning relievers and that Magneuris Sierra maxes out as a dynamite defensive outfielder who can’t hit, etc. Even if the fate of most of these players is something short of what scouts project based on physical tools or athleticism, they are still 40 or 45 FV types of players. That’s not much worse than what we expect from the kind of package Kiley says small-market teams covet.

If one or two of these acquisitions puts everything together (Alcantara or Guzman become No. 2 starters or Monte Harrison does what Bo Jackson would have done if he’d have played only baseball), then the Marlins have a star that teams in their kind of market can’t attract or afford (if you believe their owners). I think that trade-off is worth considering. Independent of their bad-faith financial motivations, this was Miami’s best haul of talent so far this offseason.

Also of note is Miami’s 40-man roster, which currently has three outfielders: Brinson, Sierra and Braxton Lee, who was acquired via trade from Tampa Bay ahead of July’s deadline. All three can really fly (Lee and Sierra are 70 runners) and have a chance to see lots of playing time in 2018. Sierra and Brinson have already had a taste of the majors and Lee looked terrific in the Arizona Fall League.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scou...yelich-return/

Fangraphs take on the deal.

[lou]

This is a pretty meh return for one of the best contracts in baseball. Arguably the best contract in baseball. You're getting a very very good young player with a chance to be a great player on an absurdly club friendly deal for the next 5 years. Unfathomable how this is part of the rebuild if it was supposedly a 3 year plan towards contention.

Also, through all of this, is there one guy who's an inevitability like Burnett or Preston Wilson were from the 97 fire sale, or Hanley was from the 06 fire sale?

Maybe we just get really excited that Bruce Sherman is going to be even wealthier?

Yea I'm not loving this. One of the guys will need to turn into at least a 3+ WAR player (more if Yelich improves, which I suspect he does as bombs are coming) to mitigate Yelich, plus use the payroll they saved to buy something to make up the difference. Really volatile prospects, even if the upside is undeniable. Hopefully it works out and they get 1 really good player, even if not as good as Yelich, and another competent starter somewhere.

[fauowls44]

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018...pects-for-2018

Interesting to read this from John Sickles from a few days ago. Says we have some interesting arms, but lack impact bats. The Marlins apparently agreed.

[fish16]

Yea I'm not loving this. One of the guys will need to turn into at least a 3+ WAR player (more if Yelich improves, which I suspect he does as bombs are coming) to mitigate Yelich, plus use the payroll they saved to buy something to make up the difference. Really volatile prospects, even if the upside is undeniable. Hopefully it works out and they get 1 really good player, even if not as good as Yelich, and another competent starter somewhere.

I dont think it would surprise me if any one of Diaz, Brinson, or Harrison turn into a 3+ WAR player. that's not guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination, but i dont think its far fetched either. Even if all 3 are just above average, getting 3 above average everyday players isnt bad at all.

[lou]

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018...pects-for-2018

Interesting to read this from John Sickles from a few days ago. Says we have interesting arms, but lack impact bats. The Marlins apparently agreed.

I think they just took the best deal they could get. These are really volatile bats, even if some love them.

Looking at the farm, they need 4-5 more future starting pitchers to me. I will have some faith restored if they move Realmuto (new # 1 asset) for a pitcher better than Guzman/Alcantara, get some more Niederts, M. Gonzalezs, and Gallens for Bour/Straily/Castro/Barraclough/whoever, and draft a college SP 1st rounder 2018. That probably gets them to the attrition level where they'll have their full rotation and staff in house by 2021, and hopefully an ace emerges from the group.

I don't really care about the bats. They can find bats and that's a better free agent investment when Jeter is ready to spend.

[fish16]

I think they just took the best deal they could get. These are really volatile bats, even if some love them.

Looking at the farm, they need 4-5 more future starting pitchers to me. I will have some faith restored if they move Realmuto (new # 1 asset) for a pitcher better than Guzman/Alcantara, get some more Niederts, M. Gonzalezs, and Gallens for Bour/Straily/Castro/Barraclough/whoever, and draft a college SP 1st rounder 2018. That probably gets them to the attrition level where they'll have their full rotation and staff in house by 2021, and hopefully an ace emerges from the group.

I don't really care about the bats. They can find bats and that's a better free agent investment when Jeter is ready to spend.

4-5 more SP's seems like overkill. They need more talent on the farm period. SP or otherwise. They have a very solid amount of SP depth at this point for year 1 of a rebuild when you inevitably have a few years of top draft picks as well. And I think finding everyday position players are harder to find in the majors at this point as well as being a much better investment due to injury potential. Its what teams like the Astros, Cubs, and Yankees have been doing. Reading about Epstein's philosophy in building the current cubs core and he thought it was a better idea to focus on hitters.

[lou]

I dont think it would surprise me if any one of Diaz, Brinson, or Harrison turn into a 3+ WAR player. that's not guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination, but i dont think its far fetched either. Even if all 3 are just above average, getting 3 above average everyday players isnt bad at all.

A 3 WAR starter is well above average, so if that happens, they made out like bandits and will win the trade with getting three 3+ war guys for hopefully 18+ seasons combined. That's assuming Yelich stays around a 5 WAR player moving forward (we'll give him a slight uptick). That would be amazing. This also ignores savings.

If two of them become that, that's still a big win and worth it. Two guys at 3+ WAR plus the $40+ million saved to spend on something else 2020-22. That's a win.

If one becomes that, they'll have to hit on the free agent using Yelich's money, and then this becomes a push scenario at best.

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4-5 more SP's seems like overkill. They need more talent on the farm period. SP or otherwise. They have a very solid amount of SP depth at this point for year 1 of a rebuild when you inevitably have a few years of top draft picks as well.

They really don't, 4-5 more minimum.

If you want to include Urena and Conley in longterm plans, 2-3 minimum with one of them being ace level (which can only come from Realmuto or the draft probably).

It's the ace thing which is the problem. That is the single hardest thing to get IMO and they should be throwing all of their assets at figuring out how to get the next Kluber.

[fish16]

A 3 WAR starter is well above average, so if that happens, they made out like bandits and will win the trade with getting three 3+ war guys for hopefully 18+ seasons combined. That's assuming Yelich stays around a 5 WAR player moving forward (we'll give him a slight uptick). That would be amazing. This also ignores savings.

If two of them become that, that's still a big win and worth it. Two guys at 3+ WAR plus the $40+ million saved to spend on something else 2020-22. That's a win.

If one becomes that, they'll have to hit on the free agent using Yelich's money, and then this becomes a push scenario at best.

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They really don't, 4-5 more minimum.

If you want to include Urena and Conley in longterm plans, 2-3 minimum with one of them being ace level (which can only come from Realmuto or the draft probably).

It's the ace thing which is the problem. That is the single hardest thing to get IMO and they should be throwing all of their assets at figuring out how to get the next Kluber.

I agree they should be looking to get an ace level guy, but Im just talking about this trade in particular. Obviously they need an ace level guy, but theyll also be picking high in the draft the next few years, still have JT to deal, and might even already have it in Guzman, Alcantara, or whatever Rogers becomes as he has never thrown a pitch yet.

Im just talking about the value they got for this particular deal, and prospects are also obviously not guarantees for anything, but they did a solid job value wise for Yelich. 2 top 100 hitters and a 3rd who is borderline is a really good addition to the base of position prospects we have considering we had none. We cant just ignore that entire aspect of the game, especially considering those are the guys playing every day. I just dont understand your need to only go after SP. We had literally nothing hitting wise in the minors.