Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[Namaste]

The Marlins are a 60 win team in 2018 if they do well in 1-run games.

They’re a 65 win team in 2019.

And maybe a 75 win team in 2020



Why keep a disgruntled Yelich when even Mike Hill can get three Top 100
MLB prospects for him?

This Mags guy can play CF.

[AdamRavs]

The good news in all this. I cancelled my MLB.tv sub. Saving $. Thanks Jeter

[flamarlins93]

The Marlins are a 60 win team in 2018 if they do well in 1-run games.

They’re a 65 win team in 2019.

And maybe a 75 win team in 2020



Why keep a disgruntled Yelich when even Mike Hill can get three Top 100
MLB prospects for him?

This Mags guy can play CF.

I think you are being way too generous with those wins. I don't think they will win anywhere near 60 games next year or the year after.
Also way to kind to Hill if there is a way to screw it up he will. Especially after seeing what he got for Ozuna.
Sierra may can play defensively but can he ever learn to hit consistently? That is a major risk to take in choosing him.

[rmc523]

The Marlins are a 60 win team in 2018 if they do well in 1-run games.

They’re a 65 win team in 2019.

And maybe a 75 win team in 2020



Why keep a disgruntled Yelich when even Mike Hill can get three Top 100
MLB prospects for him?

This Mags guy can play CF.

Because he's proven if there's a way to screw it up, he will. He wouldn't get three Top 100 prospects. He'd take some team's #5 prospect and a bag of balls and try to spin it as one of his best moves.

Worse yet, he'll try to package Tazawa and Chen with Yelich, because you know - money.

I shouldn't give him any ideas, he might try it.

[Namaste]

I think you are being way too generous with those wins. I don't think they will win anywhere near 60 games next year or the year after

So what’s your win prediction for 2018?

39?

[Ralph]

I actually miss Larry Beinfest.

[flamarlins93]

Yeah probably 30 something games especially since they aren't even getting anybody back who should be playing in the majors right now. Plus they don't have many options in the minors the best two options are probably Dean and Norwood and one or both could be lost in the rule 5.

[emkayseven]

Do you know how hard it is to only win 30-something games? Hint: only 4 teams have done it since 1900, none since 1935.

This team is going to be bad, and may lose 100+ games, but they aren't going to be HISTORICALLY bad.

[flamarlins93]

I am not so sure. They may actually contend for the least wins ever. If they continue and trade Bour, Castro, Straily, Barraclough, Ziegler, Dietrich, Realmuto and Yelich they may be hard pressed to field a team. Nicolino may be the #2 or #3 starter. lol If I was a free agent minor leaguer I would be calling them wanting to sign.

[emkayseven]

not even close my dude

I don't think you understand just how hard it is not to luck into 50+ wins. There's a reason win totals in the 30s and 40s are so rare historically.

They are getting returns for all those players. Even assuming they trade all of them and they get NO major leaguers and make NO free agent signings they're still a 50 win team.

[Erick]

Do you know how hard it is to only win 30-something games? Hint: only 4 teams have done it since 1900, none since 1935.

This team is going to be bad, and may lose 100+ games, but they aren't going to be HISTORICALLY bad.

The offseason is not over yet.

[lou]

The 2003 Tigers, probably the worst modern team ever, went 43-119. Negative 337 run differential.

Batting WAR: -1.3
Pitching WAR: 2.9
Total Team WAR = 1.6.

Reasonable projections for the Marlins:

Yelich 4 WAR
Realmuto 3 WAR
Dietrich 1.5 WAR
Rojas 1 WAR
B. Anderson 1 WAR
Sierra 1 WAR
2B Starter ?
1B Starter ?
Bench - Let's say it is terrible, -2 WAR (it was -1.2 in 2017)
=9.5+ WAR, plus 2B and 1B

So I mean, the pitching is going to be atrocious next year, but I think it's hard to project them as 7-10+ wins below replacement atrocious to get to a lower 40 win total.

If they move Yelich and Realmuto though, it could get ugly.

[fish16]

this team will be around 50-60 wins.

[Namaste]

There is negative 4000% chance this team wins less than 40 games if Yelich and Realmuto stay.

I predict Las Vegas will post 60.5

Then every square in the world will think the Under is a deadbolt lock and then the Marlins will bury everyone and win 61 games.

[fish16]

There is negative 4000% chance this team wins less than 40 games if Yelich and Realmuto stay.

I predict Las Vegas will post 60.5

Then every square in the world will think the Under is a deadbolt lock and then the Marlins will bury everyone and win 61 games.

less than even 50 games is really hard to do