Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[Nick]

At this point thats what we need to do. What sense does it make to keep realmuto unless he signs an extension? And it's not "whatever package offered." Get the best package you can get, but keeping him makes 0 sense at this point.

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TO elaborate, I just think it's way to risky to keep him given how much we're gonna lose the next 2 years at least. You can try to sell him on a vision, but if he doesnt buy into that vision, youre just losing value on our best remaining asset. The very best case scenario if he doesnt sign an extension is that we have to outbid other teams in free agency, which is a bad way to spend money and also risks losing him for nothing just to be bad for the next few years.

There is such a thing called patience and waiting for the right deal. Especially in this off-season where teams seem to be more content with what they have than in any off-season I think we've ever seen. Put teams in a playoff race, let the attrition of injuries play out. There will be a good offer for J.T. out there, don't give in to the Nationals, that's all we're saying.

[lou]

You do need to trade him unless he'll sign a 5 year extension. Team is going nowhere for at least 2 years.

You don't move him, or anyone else, for whatever is offered though, just keep all of them until a beneficial deal turns up. Ideally though, some guys are moved now to protect their value just in case they tank this season. Realmuto, Straily, Bour, Castro, Dietrich, Barraclough, maybe Prado, Ziegler, and Tazawa, have value to others. Some need will arise with someone eventually and they'll find a deal that works to complete the purge.

They have 6 months to do it.

[fish16]

There is such a thing called patience and waiting for the right deal. Especially in this off-season where teams seem to be more content with what they have than in any off-season I think we've ever seen. Put teams in a playoff race, let the attrition of injuries play out. There will be a good offer for J.T. out there, don't give in to the Nationals, that's all we're saying.

Oh, if that's the argument then im completely fine with that. At no point am i saying just take a bad deal right now for the sake of taking a deal. Im just saying it makes no sense not to trade him either now or at the deadline and to hold on to him for the future with the hope that we will be able to convince him to re-sign with us. I'd also prefer to trade for him now just because it seems like it's difficult for catchers to adjust to a pitching staff midseason, but if thats how youll get Soto im all for it.

Just to be clear, im not advocating taking a shitty deal now just for the sake of sending him somewhere else in a rebuild. Inevitably though it makes sense for both the nats and us to make a deal and i think the nats will eventually cave and give us Soto and Fedde/Kieboom.

[Nick]

I also don't think they should give up trying to sign him to an extension during that time up until the deadline. Who knows, maybe we come out and get off to a better start than people think, and tensions die down. A Realmuto extension would still be a positive IMO. If it's not possible then you move him at the deadline. I'm confident they'd be able to find a quality deal for him.

[fish16]

It would not surprise me to see Dietrich really improve his trade value if he's given an every day job. Lefty somewhat power guy, can play 2b, 3b, LF, 3 more years of team control. He's a guy a contending team could use. Bour at the deadline specifically also strikes me as someone who can get you a borderline top 100 guy if he stays healthy and hits like he has his whole career. And if we were to eat some of Prado's money for next year, letting him play everyday and him staying healthy and regaining the form he's had for essentially his entire career could get you a decent mid level prospect or 2.

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I also don't think they should give up trying to sign him to an extension during that time up until the deadline. Who knows, maybe we come out and get off to a better start than people think, and tensions die down. A Realmuto extension would still be a positive IMO. If it's not possible then you move him at the deadline. I'm confident they'd be able to find a quality deal for him.

Absolutely. If he'd be willing to sign an extension i would never consider dealing him. I dont think he's a buster posey type level catcher, but there are just so few catchers in todays game that id love for him to be here long term. I just think he wont consider signing it now nor do i think the amount of losing we will do is going to improve that possibility. Perhaps we do surprise though and some of the young guys make big strides this year and the future looks better right away.

[fish16]

Honestly, even if it means giving him a deal way over his market value, i think offering JT an extension for more than he's worth wouldnt be the worst move in the world if that's the direction they decide to go. Especially given how many cost controlled guys we're gonna have on the roster for the next 6 years.

[lou]

Honestly, even if it means giving him a deal way over his market value, i think offering JT an extension for more than he's worth wouldnt be the worst move in the world if that's the direction they decide to go. Especially given how many cost controlled guys we're gonna have on the roster for the next 6 years.

5/$55 is that deal. You're valuing two free agency years at $18 million, and his arbitration at $19 million, which he will never get based on a $3.5 tender this year which I am assuming he wins. It might even be lower. That's a big and bold guarantee.

With the current roster in 2021, and assuming they are called up at a normal pace (mid may) and not on opening day roster to blow their service time.

Conley, Urena, Wittgren, Steckenrider, Ellington, and Garcia are in arbitration. I don't think all these guys last, but maybe 2-3 do. I suspect this is cheap. Maybe $7.5+ million here. (They would also have guys like Dietrich and Rojas in arbitration, but I am ignoring them).

Brinson, Anderson, D. Peters, Sierra, Alcantara will be Super2 eligible in 2021. I think this is also cheap, relatively, $15+ million

Gallen, B. Lee, and guys with no service time brought up after June 7-10th this year aren't arbitration eligible until 2022.

That's it besides a $15 million payment to Chen, and maybe money to Stanton if he doesn't opt out. A let's say $15 Realmuto, throw in say 15 club controlled players (Diaz, Harrison, M. Gonzalez, Neidert, Guzman, whoever), and let's over value that at $10 million.

Realmuto, 6-8 guys in arbitration, and 15 club controlled guys, plus Chen and maybe a few Stanton dollars, is around $65 million bucks, give or take a few, in 2021.

They can probably get that number down another $10-20 million easily through attrition as this is a pretty rosey perspective of all their arb pitchers and most imminent callups working out which is unlikely, so yes. Signing Realmuto for an extra $5-8 million over 5 years to buy his happiness and lock in a good catcher is worth it to the Marlins. Fully happy still keeping him if he'll do it. They'll still have minimum $50+ million to spend in 2021 based on Jeter's budgets.

[rmc523]

At this point thats what we need to do. What sense does it make to keep realmuto unless he signs an extension? And it's not "whatever package offered." Get the best package you can get, but keeping him makes 0 sense at this point.

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TO elaborate, I just think it's way to risky to keep him given how much we're gonna lose the next 2 years at least. You can try to sell him on a vision, but if he doesnt buy into that vision, youre just losing value on our best remaining asset. The very best case scenario if he doesnt sign an extension is that we have to outbid other teams in free agency, which is a bad way to spend money and also risks losing him for nothing just to be bad for the next few years.

You've amended your statement since then, but "best package offered" could be a bucket of balls and an extra concession attendant, that doesn't mean you take it.

My point (and others, which you now have agreed with) is that if you don't get the deal you want, you don't deal him. You wait out the other clubs and let THEM get desperate and offer more, not us cave to their deal like we always do.

[fish16]

You've amended your statement since then, but "best package offered" could be a bucket of balls and an extra concession attendant, that doesn't mean you take it.

My point (and others, which you now have agreed with) is that if you don't get the deal you want, you don't deal him. You wait out the other clubs and let THEM get desperate and offer more, not us cave to their deal like we always do.

i mean, the best package isnt going to be a bucket of balls, but if you want to put out that hypothetical, you dont trade him. you 100% trade him for whatever the best package is between now and the trade deadline though. he's a valuable asset at a premium position, they'll get a really good group of players for him.

[Namaste]

It pains me to say it but I completely agree with fish16 on this.

[fish16]

It pains me to say it but I completely agree with fish16 on this.

welcome to the dark side.

[tjfla]

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-...uire-realmuto/

In any case, the Nats have some other young players and prospects who could form a deal for Realmuto, and six they are believed willing to consider are young outfielder Michael Taylor, shortstop Carter Kieboom, pitchers Erick Fedde and Seth Romero, and catchers Pedro Severino and Raudy Read.

This is what they have been offering us. Some form of these players. NOT a great package however if they throw in Antuna or Garcia maybe?

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I would still wait and hope Texas/Houston/Colorado step up BUT if they take a Washington package it has to be(Still bad deal)

Kieboom
Taylor OR another young OF(Daniel Johnson)
Romero OR Fedde
Severino OR Read
Antuna OR Garcia

5 for 1 otherwise he stays. Same as Yelich deal with a C replacement thrown in

[fish16]

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-...uire-realmuto/

In any case, the Nats have some other young players and prospects who could form a deal for Realmuto, and six they are believed willing to consider are young outfielder Michael Taylor, shortstop Carter Kieboom, pitchers Erick Fedde and Seth Romero, and catchers Pedro Severino and Raudy Read.

This is what they have been offering us. Some form of these players. NOT a great package however if they throw in Antuna or Garcia maybe?

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I would still wait and hope Texas/Houston/Colorado step up BUT if they take a Washington package it has to be(Still bad deal)

Kieboom
Taylor OR another young OF(Daniel Johnson)
Romero OR Fedde
Severino OR Read
Antuna OR Garcia

5 for 1 otherwise he stays. Same as Yelich deal with a C replacement thrown in

no for me. Just cant make this deal without Soto.

[tjfla]

no for me. Just cant make this deal without Soto.

Agreed still bad deal just saying if they insist on making it with Washington. It would have to be 5 for 1 and Denbo would be banking on the 18 yr become a star

[fish16]

Agreed still bad deal just saying if they insist on making it with Washington. It would have to be 5 for 1 and Denbo would be banking on the 18 yr become a star

Just play hard ball. To me it makes no sense given that Harper is a free agent and that catcher is the last remaining hole on their roster and soto is still 2 years away that they wouldnt eventually cave. Gotta give up something of value to get something of value, especially at a premium position like C when the guy is under team control for 3 more years.