Trade Deadline Watch 2017

[tjfla]

Looks like St Louis might be really all in on Ozuna. Derrick Goold who is pretty solid beat guy talks about it

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseb...11fe1fc19.html


Makes too much sense for Jeff so likely he wont do it. Easily get a 2(Ozuna and either McGowan/Ziegler/Tazawa) for 5 prospects. U could go Carson Kelly,Bader/Sierra,and 3 mid/low level prospects they have seen in camp OR Luke Weaver/Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson and 3 mid/low level guys. Way too many possiblites for us its nuts-they have high end pitchers,high end position guys and even high end mid level/low guys(Cubans/IFA they have been getting)

[tjfla]

They shouldn't but guess anything is possible when morons run the FO


Trade Candidate: Christian Yelich

By Connor Byrne | June 8, 2017 at 11:53am CDT


The Marlins signed outfielder Christian Yelich to a seven-year, $49.57MM contract extension in 2015 with the idea that he’d be a long-term cornerstone in Miami, and that could still end up as the case. However, after rejecting other teams’ overtures for Yelich in the past, the Marlins will reportedly listen to offers for the 25-year-old if they’re not in the playoff hunt near next month’s trade deadline.

At 25-33 and 12 games back of the NL East-leading Nationals, Miami is all but out of its division race already, which leaves a wild-card berth as its only hope. The Marlins are a lofty 9.5 games back of the NL’s last playoff spot, though, and their minus-26 run differential isn’t indicative of a sleeper team whose record is particularly unlucky.

Barring a major turnaround in the coming weeks, the Marlins are probably going to sell in an effort to strengthen their farm system. The Fish clearly need to replenish their prospect pool, which ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required and recommended) ranked 29th in the majors entering the season and could see promising left-hander Braxton Garrett undergo Tommy John surgery. As arguably Miami’s best trade chip, dealing Yelich would add much-needed talent to the organization’s pipeline, though it would obviously further weaken whatever chances it has to compete in the near future.

Christian Yelich

Yelich, a 2010 first-round pick who made his big league debut in 2013, established himself as a high-average, high-OBP hitter who could steal double-digit bases and play a quality left field during his first two-plus years in the league. While that blend of skills made Yelich quite valuable, the lefty-swinger didn’t complement it with much power, hitting only 20 home runs and posting a .116 ISO in 1,458 plate appearances. Last year was a different story, though, as Yelich swatted 21 homers and recorded a .185 ISO (league average was .162) in 659 PAs en route to a career-best .298/.376/.483 line and his second 4-fWAR season.

Now, Yelich is again on pace for a respectable campaign (he has accrued 1.3 fWAR in 246 plate trips), but the terrific offensive production he registered from 2013-16 hasn’t been present. At .259/.343/.392, Yelich has logged a league-average OPS+ (100) and a slightly below-average wRC+ (97). With a .132 ISO, the grounder-hitting Yelich has also lost much of the power he showed last season. One obvious problem has been a lack of line drives, as Yelich’s 17.1 percent mark is both a career worst and a 6.3 percent decline from last season.

Even if Yelich’s batted-ball profile stays the same, there are reasons to expect positive regression in his production. Yelich’s batting average on balls in play (.286) is 68 points lower than his career figure (.354), for one, and his .342 xwOBA (via Baseball Savant) indicates he deserves better than his actual wOBA (.319). Plus, Yelich has continued to walk at a solid clip (10.6 percent, compared to a career 10.4 percent), and has not contributed to the league’s growing strikeout trend. Yelich has struck out just 16.7 percent of the time, which is far better than both his lifetime mark (20.4) and the league average (21.6).

While Yelich’s offensive game is the main reason he’s so highly regarded, defense has also been a strength. Yelich combined for 32 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in left field from 2013-16, leading the Marlins to shift him to the outfield’s most important position – center – during the offseason. The returns have been encouraging so far, albeit over a small sample, with Yelich having saved a pair of runs and contributed a 7.5 UZR/150.

Affordable, well-rounded players – especially those who can handle a premium position – obviously carry major value, evidenced by the prospect haul the Nationals sent to the White Sox for Adam Eaton over the winter. Washington parted with two of MLB.com’s top 40 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), as well as 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire up to five years and $38.4MM of Eaton. Yelich is three years younger than Eaton and also comes at a very reasonable cost. He’s due around $45MM through 2021 and either a $15MM club option or a $1.25MM buyout in 2022. Yelich has already outperformed the worth of his contract, per FanGraphs, which values his production at $64.5MM dating back to 2015.

If the Marlins do market the remainder of Yelich’s 20s prior to the deadline, plenty of potential suitors are likely to emerge. Thanks to Yelich’s age and team control, even clubs that aren’t in the playoff hunt this season (but view themselves as near-future contenders) could attempt to acquire him. As such, the Marlins would probably be in position to add multiple high-end youngsters to a system that, in Baseball America’s view, only has one top 100 prospect. That prospect, Garrett, falls toward the low end of BA’s list (No. 80) and is now facing a rather uncertain future on account of his elbow injury.

[dim]

Ozuna's value continues to rise and is at its highest. Given the dearth of a farm system he's the right guy to sell on at the deadline. Him and Ramos make the most sense since the team would be able to compete long term without them (and they'll be tough to re-sign).

Yelich makes no sense to give up. Not only is a one of the best pure hitters on the team, but his value is at its all-time lowest. No reason to get rid of him ever given his contract is incredibly team friendly. Him and Realmuto are guys you build around for their entire careers.

[rmc523]

Ozuna's value continues to rise and is at its highest. Given the dearth of a farm system he's the right guy to sell on at the deadline. Him and Ramos make the most sense since the team would be able to compete long term without them (and they'll be tough to re-sign).

Yelich makes no sense to give up. Not only is a one of the best pure hitters on the team, but his value is at its all-time lowest. No reason to get rid of him ever given his contract is incredibly team friendly. Him and Realmuto are guys you build around for their entire careers.

But that's when the Marlins get rid of guys.

[fish16]

Makes no sense to get rid of Yelich unless you get rid of literally everybody possible. You start with Ozuna and any relievers we can get something for, then try to get something for guys with big deals like Prado, Stanton, Gordon, and then you go after the Yelich's and Realmuto's. Trading Yelich makes no sense unless you are going complete tear down. But knowing the marlins they will fuck this up.

[fish16]

Also AJ ellis should be added to a deal to get even a very very minor prospect. One year deal and we have Telis who deserves AB's on a team that should be well out of the playoff picture come August 1.

[Namaste]

They're not going to trade Yelich.

[AdamRavs]

They are listening on everyone. Ozuna and Ramos need to be dealt. Especially Ozuna who's value will never be higher.

[tjfla]

Of course they are going to f it up. They will end up holding onto the 5-7 guys who are gonna be gone next year(Ramos,Koehler,Hech,Ichiro,AJ Ellis,McGowan,Locke) and get nothing for them.

While they shouldn't trade Yelich,telling u now don't be surprise if they do. It is all depending on the offer they get. Teams have called and like was mentioned in the article-they have been telling teams they want more than Adam Eaton cost. That would mean at least 2 Top 50 Prospects in the majors plus 2 more high to mid level prospects. That is the reason u heard the national guys mention EVERYONE is for sale-because they have taken calls on him and surveyed the league


JT is the same-they have gotten ALOT of calls on him but have told teams if they don't get a Top 3 C(St Louis-Kelly,Cleveland-Mejia,Philly-Alfaro) somehow then they aren't dealing him. Meaning if they trade Ozuna to St Louis and get Carson Kelly then JT would be on the block but would take a crazy package

- - - - - - - - - -

Also AJ ellis should be added to a deal to get even a very very minor prospect. One year deal and we have Telis who deserves AB's on a team that should be well out of the playoff picture come August 1.

U really need to get off Telis. AJ Ellis should be dealt and actually will get u more than a minor prospect-most playoff teams would rather have him than a 23 yr old

[dim]

Tomas also has regressed to a .675 OPS this year. He deserves exactly 0 ABs this year until he improves his game again.

[Erick]

Ozuna's value continues to rise and is at its highest. Given the dearth of a farm system he's the right guy to sell on at the deadline. Him and Ramos make the most sense since the team would be able to compete long term without them (and they'll be tough to re-sign).

Yelich makes no sense to give up. Not only is a one of the best pure hitters on the team, but his value is at its all-time lowest. No reason to get rid of him ever given his contract is incredibly team friendly. Him and Realmuto are guys you build around for their entire careers.

Well, if we're to believe rumors, everyone is available.

Except for AJ Ramos; he's not available.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...e-for-now.html

This front office is the best.

[dim]

So the problem with trading Yelich, given that a lot of talks seem to revolve around the talk that Yelich could net equal or more than what the White Sox got for Adam Eaton, is that there is no such thing as a sure-fire prospect.

Lets look at the Nationals/White Sox deal for reference. Giolito, who was easily one of the top pitching prospects going into this season, has a near 5 ERA in AAA this season. Reynaldo Lopez is doing solid in AAA with a 3.82 ERA and should be a MLB rotation guy soon, but he's not lighting the world on fire. And Dane Dunning is in A+ ball right now even if he looks really promising.

And Adam Eaton was having a typical Adam Eaton style season before his injury.

Would I love to have 3 pitchers that could very easily be #3 or better MLB starters by 2020? Of course I would. But there's a ton of variables in that kind of deal, and Yelich is a known commodity who is on an amazing team friendly contract for a while. I'm still of the mindset that you build around Yelich/Realmuto, while guys who you are going to be difficult to keep long term given contract demands (Ozuna/Ramos) are the ones to let go this deadline.

[Namaste]

They're not trading Yelich, guys.

[fish16]

Id keep the lineup in tact and trade every pitcher possible. Ramos, Koehler, Phelps, etc. At the very least restock a little bit of the farm.

[tjfla]

They're not trading Yelich, guys.

Ya highly doubtful they do BUT the reason they say everyone is maybe the NYY or someone offers a crazy deal. U know maybe they said Torres or Clint Frazier and 2/3 other prospects

99% Yelich stays and if they don't get a Alfaro,Kelly,Mejia so does JT