Spring Training thread

[tjfla]

First off, saying a bench bat wouldnt do us much good and then naming Destin Hood, Perez, riddle, or any of the other minor league retreads we have who will be in AAA pretty much makes the point that we could use another bench bat. Urena wont do us much good either. I dont care if he is out of options, dont force him onto the team and continue to watch him be terrible like he has been just because we cant send him down. Im not saying let him go for nothing, but dont force him on the team. With Prado out for the first little bit of the season, we could definitely use a bench bat that could have some potential rather than yet another long reliever/#5 guy like Urena who stinks and will take a bullpen spot from a guy like Ellington or Wittgren. Obviously this is a moot point without knowing who is available around the league, but I think a younger bench bat is definitely possible to obtain from a team who thinks they can do something with Urena, who i have no doubt will become a dominant bullpen arm for another team who fixes his mechanics or something.

I fully expect us to force Urena on the team or get a lower level arm or bat like you say, but I dont think it is a stretch to be able to get a bench bat for him in the slightest.

Also, on the Conley thing, another reason why I think Mattingly wont actually leave him out of the rotation at least to start the year is because as bad as he has been, Tom Koehler has been even worse. Granted he has been in the rotation for a few years now so there is a little longer track record of success (can you call what Koehler's done success?) but I think you cant really explain one being in the rotation and the other not being in there, unless its just about Conley's long term potential.

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My rationale for the Urena thing btw is that we have done this with veteran bullpen guys who couldnt be sent to AAA in the past few years and it has destroyed our bullpen in the early season for no reason because we dont just want to lose a guy even though they arent good. Ill look through the stats from the past few years to try to find other names, but guys i remember being forced onto the team include Breslow, Edwin Jackson, Narveson from last year. I dont remember if Jackson or Narveson couldnt be sent down or what, but I distinctly remember them needing to keep Breslow and just wondering why we were so scared to lose a shitty pitcher.

I understand the rationale of not wanting to lose Urena, especially more so because he is a younger guy with potential, and he was a guy i was even really high on coming up through the minors, but I just really dont like knowingly forcing good players like Wittgren or Ellington down just for Urena. Especially wittgren, i dont get why he is not an automatic lock to make the team. I do understand the Urena thing though, and wont be all that annoyed if he makes the team cause there were times where he looked like he could be decent last year. I just dont get why he had great control coming up throughout the entire minor league system and cant throw strikes in the majors.

But on a side note, we actually had some good signs from some of our prospects in spring, for whatever that is worth. Anderson played great and put up very good numbers, would love to see him improve his power in AAA this year. Jarlin Garcia put up nice numbers in limited work. Dillon Peters held his own. After going through the numbers thats about it. Wow that is kind of depressing.

O i agree i would get rid of Urena the thing I am saying is u aren't gonna get anything better than we already have in AAA tho which is why they are gonna keep him around. If u trade Urena u are likely getting a lower level prospect who is 2 or 3 years away OR a out of options bat who couldnt make another team which means more than likely u are gonna give him away for free when the guy gets DFA. Now if u traded him for a position player with options that has power I understand u. What I am saying is we already have 4th OF types in AAA,we already got a speed guy and already have UT guys so no point in trading him for say Taylor Motter when we already have the same exact guy on the 40 man roster.

Hood,Perez,Riddle or even Barnes are all guys who would make a ML bench. The issue with us is they arent needed which is why we talked about a 4 man bench-Ichiro is the 4th OF and he plays all 3 OF spots. Perez,Hood and Barnes are all 4th OF who can't play any place else(Perez can play 2B). What we have needed all winter is a guy who could play 1B/3B/Corner OF sometime and has power. None of them can and more than likely no team would trade something like that for Urena

Wittgren or Ellington forced to AAA isnt that bad especially since 10 Day DL now. They aren't automatic cause they have options. Its a good issue to have

[Erick]

I would not give up on Jose Urena. That would fall in line with this dumb organization though. Lets give up on a guy with some upside when we don't have to yet because...well, no apparent reason, really. Urena should make the team.

[Nick]

There's a reason to leave Jose Urena off the team. It's if he'll hurt the team. His overall performance hurt the team last year, there's just no way around that.

[fish16]

I would not give up on Jose Urena. That would fall in line with this dumb organization though. Lets give up on a guy with some upside when we don't have to yet because...well, no apparent reason, really. Urena should make the team.

Im kind of skeptical about it because I really thought he had a chance to be a very quality but not spectacular starting pitcher coming up through the system. From 2011-2014, he spent a full year each in low A, A, A+, and then AA, didnt get hurt, increased his innings every year, increased his K's every year, and had the same amount of walks each year. He weirdly had 29 walks every year for 4 years in a row despite increasing his innings from 70 to 160 over that time. Additionally, his K's, WHIP, and BAA also improved each year. He never struck a ton of guys out, but he wasnt Nicolino level either. He had all the peripherals of a future mid-back of the rotation innings eater.

He started 2015 off in AAA and had ok numbers, but since the beginning of that year, for some reason, he just can not throw strikes consistently. When he reached the upper levels, his walk rate was way too high, and it hasnt looked like its improved in spring training this year.

I think he might be the epitome of why this marlins system desperately needs to add depth. In 2015, he should have spent the entire year at AAA, or at the very least if we did promote him, he needed to have stayed in the rotation and not shift back and forth between rotation and bullpen. But because our system sucks and we needed starters, we promoted him, and I really think that set back his development and set something off with him, because not only have the results been poor, but he's been a completely different style pitcher who cant throw strikes when he came up throughout the system not having a problem throwing strikes.

So I understand the argument of keeping him, and I think he is a major league pitcher eventually, but unfortunately i have a feeling he is the type of guy who will not succeed here and will ultimately settle in as a quality major leaguer with an organization who improves his ability to throw strikes and gives him a consistent role.

With that being said, if he isnt a quality major leaguer right now and he doesnt have any options left, are we going to keep a bad pitcher on our roster all year just because we dont want to lose him, even if that means knowingly and actively making your bullpen/team worse by keeping a Wittgren or an Ellington in AAA when they are clearly major league relievers (especially Wittgren, I know I say this a lot, but im extremely high on him and have no fucking clue how he isnt considered a lock to make the team given his track record in the minors and his performance last year).

I havent taken a close enough look at the roster bubble heading into the season, but if the choice is keeping Wittgren/Ellington in the minors and having Urena wasting a roster spot all season or having Wittgren/Ellington on the roster and flipping Urena for a bench bat or a lower level prospect, I take Wittgren/Ellington all the time.

Going off in another direction, I have never understood the Marlins plan with Wittgren for years now. To me, he is the epitome of what I want out of a reliever. I can not stand pitchers who cant throw strikes consistently, but specifically, relievers who cant throw strikes and walk too many guys are insufferable. It's why Mike Dunn was the bane of my existence for years. Specifically in this day and age of baseball where most relievers dont even pitch a full inning, guys who allow too many walks can blow games so easily. Wittgren obviously doesnt have the stuff of a Miller or Chapman or Kimbrel, but his consistency and ability to throw strikes is invaluable in my opinion out of a reliever. He flat out knows how to pitch and has the trait out of relievers that I think is critically important: lack of volatility.

Sure guys like Mike Dunn and tons of other guys in our recent history might have had great stuff, but volatility out of a reliever is the one trait I think you must avoid at all costs. Hence why I think a guy like Wittgren is invaluable, even if he isnt spectacular.

End rant.

[fish16]

Just to do a quick overview of where the roster stands right now.

Locks
Starters- Volquez, Straily, Chen, Koehler, likely Conley
Position players- Realmuto, Bour, Gordon, Hech, Prado (Dietrich for a few days to start the year), Yelich, Ozuna, Stanton
Bullpen- Ramos, Tazawa, Ziegler, Barraclough, Phelps, Wittgren, Mcgowan
Bench- Ellis, Dietrich (1 replacement for his bench spot to start the year as he will start at 3rd till Prado gets back), Rojas, Ichiro

That is 24, with whoever replaces Prado's roster spot going down shortly after the season when Prado comes back. So that leaves one more roster spot, likely for a reliever because of our already stated preference to go with a 4 man bench, unfortunately. So essentially, the choice is Nicolino, Urena, or Ellington. I think due to Ellington's inability to throw strikes consistently in spring and Urena's lack of options, the choice is fairly obvious.

After doing the math, Urena will likely make the team. Ellington has an issue with walks, and even though the marlins decisions rarely make sense, I think they understand the value of having Nicolino getting seasoning in AAA as a starter rather than him being a long reliever working sparingly, so Urena kind of has the inside track I would think unless they just want to get rid of him. That is, unless i forgot somebody.

So the only real true roster question, I would think, going into opening day is who they will choose to replace Prado for a few days.

Looking at that roster, that is a playoff team if Jose is on it. Im not breaking any news, but its impossible to put into words how much his tragic death crippled this franchise's future. But beyond that, on paper, that is a very solid roster. I see us hovering around .500, likely a little below .500, but if a few things break right we could be a little above average, although I think playoffs are a huge stretch.

In my opinion, the most important things this year will be health, the effectiveness of Volquez, and Chen's ability to be what he was before he came here last year. Chen looks like he is back given his spring stats and i think that is absolutely huge. He isnt a #1 and he really shouldnt be a #2, but if he can perform like he did in Baltimore and give us 2-3 WAR, it would be huge. Looking at Volquez's career, he seems to be either a solid starter or a black hole in the rotation, so if he can give us around 200 innings in one of his good years that would also really turn our outlook around.

But all in all, we're not going to be a playoff team for the 16th year in a row. On the bright side, this franchise is so close to turning a page on the Loria era, and that is so much more important than our results this year.

[fish16]

To build off my obnoxiously long posts, what is your guys opinions on Nicolino and his future at this point? It seems like everyone has soured on him, and I understand that to an extent, but I think he has a skill set that can be very valuable as a #4 or #5 in the rotation. He really needs to not be on the roster as a long reliever this year though. Given the type of pitcher he is, to me he is a starter or bust. Because of that, I think he needs to be in the AAA rotation as our #6 starter who will come up when we need another starter.

I understand people dont like his lack of K's, and it is incredibly weird how he has developed from what he was in Toronto and his first year here, but he has a role in the future of our rotation to me. He might not strike guys out, but he has a consistent track record of production in the minors, and incredibly important to me from starters, he is very efficient with his pitch counts. Just looking at his minor league game logs from the last 2 years in AAA, he consistently goes at least 6 and often times 7 innings, and he makes quick work of hitters for better or for worse, presumably because of his lack of k's.

Granted, he did struggle last year in the majors, but with more experience and being kept in the same starter role no matter what level he is at, he has potential to be a poor mans Mark Buehrle (maybe a homeless mans Mark Buehrle admittedly). As a back end of the rotation guy who doesnt throw 100 pitches in 5 innings, he has a role in the future of our rotation. He is a guy, to me, who if he was in an organization like the cardinals who had organizational depth and allowed him to develop without being tugged back and forth between AAA and MLB and starter and reliever, could develop into a very quality starter who isnt painful to watch like most back end of the rotation guys.

[Namaste]

Who had a higher WAR last year; Deitrich or Stanton?

I'll answer that. Dietrich (2 WAR) did.

[tjfla]

Just to do a quick overview of where the roster stands right now.

Locks
Starters- Volquez, Straily, Chen, Koehler, likely Conley
Position players- Realmuto, Bour, Gordon, Hech, Prado (Dietrich for a few days to start the year), Yelich, Ozuna, Stanton
Bullpen- Ramos, Tazawa, Ziegler, Barraclough, Phelps, Wittgren, Mcgowan
Bench- Ellis, Dietrich (1 replacement for his bench spot to start the year as he will start at 3rd till Prado gets back), Rojas, Ichiro

That is 24, with whoever replaces Prado's roster spot going down shortly after the season when Prado comes back. So that leaves one more roster spot, likely for a reliever because of our already stated preference to go with a 4 man bench, unfortunately. So essentially, the choice is Nicolino, Urena, or Ellington. I think due to Ellington's inability to throw strikes consistently in spring and Urena's lack of options, the choice is fairly obvious.

After doing the math, Urena will likely make the team. Ellington has an issue with walks, and even though the marlins decisions rarely make sense, I think they understand the value of having Nicolino getting seasoning in AAA as a starter rather than him being a long reliever working sparingly, so Urena kind of has the inside track I would think unless they just want to get rid of him. That is, unless i forgot somebody.

So the only real true roster question, I would think, going into opening day is who they will choose to replace Prado for a few days.

Looking at that roster, that is a playoff team if Jose is on it. Im not breaking any news, but its impossible to put into words how much his tragic death crippled this franchise's future. But beyond that, on paper, that is a very solid roster. I see us hovering around .500, likely a little below .500, but if a few things break right we could be a little above average, although I think playoffs are a huge stretch.

In my opinion, the most important things this year will be health, the effectiveness of Volquez, and Chen's ability to be what he was before he came here last year. Chen looks like he is back given his spring stats and i think that is absolutely huge. He isnt a #1 and he really shouldnt be a #2, but if he can perform like he did in Baltimore and give us 2-3 WAR, it would be huge. Looking at Volquez's career, he seems to be either a solid starter or a black hole in the rotation, so if he can give us around 200 innings in one of his good years that would also really turn our outlook around.

But all in all, we're not going to be a playoff team for the 16th year in a row. On the bright side, this franchise is so close to turning a page on the Loria era, and that is so much more important than our results this year.

Replace Wittgren with Urena and likely Tyler Moore(unless they can trade for someone) with Nola or Destin Hood DFA. Despaigne will be DFA but he is hurt so no clue what they do with him right now. They could go with Telis but think they prefer him getting regular time in AAA

Tyler Moore can play a decent 1B and lets Rojas move to 3B when needed

[fish16]

Replace Wittgren with Urena and likely Tyler Moore(unless they can trade for someone) with Nola or Destin Hood DFA. Despaigne will be DFA but he is hurt so no clue what they do with him right now. They could go with Telis but think they prefer him getting regular time in AAA

Tyler Moore can play a decent 1B and lets Rojas move to 3B when needed

There is no need to send wittgren down. First off he is a quality middle reliever who is much better than Urena, but besides that, the roster i posted has 24 people, meaning 1 more spot available for Urena anyway.

[emkayseven]

don't forget when Locke comes back for 6 games in June before finishing the year on the DL he'll be in the bullpen too. That's probably the point where we waive Urena and lose him for nothing, right before Locke ends up reinjured.

[Namaste]

#Marlins

[tjfla]

There is no need to send wittgren down. First off he is a quality middle reliever who is much better than Urena, but besides that, the roster i posted has 24 people, meaning 1 more spot available for Urena anyway.

If u have a spot Wittgren stays. He is 10 times better than Urena-in fact I have been kissing his ass for 3 years now. The reason why Wittgren is sent down is simple-he has options and with the 10 Day DL now options are even better than before

Urena is on the team till atleast Jeff Locke gets back. At which point they probably try to DFA and sneak him thru(which wont happen). People dont get that when u DFA guys at the end of ST they have a better chance of getting claimed then they do in mid April/May so team try to hold onto guys and then try to.

At this point tho it looks like Tyler Moore will be on the team with Prado out. Even tho have been some talk about maybe keeping Ramon Cabrera as 3rd C and letting JT play 1B more or be backup 1B. Trying to save his legs plus Mattingly loves AJ Ellis. No not saying Mattingly doesn't like JT but he likes Ellis game calling/framing and all. Just talk right now


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don't forget when Locke comes back for 6 games in June before finishing the year on the DL he'll be in the bullpen too. That's probably the point where we waive Urena and lose him for nothing, right before Locke ends up reinjured.

Chance of that happening is 99.999% chance

DFA Urena(Cincy or SD claim him),Locke on 10 Day DL instead of 60 Day then we trade with Montreal-prospects,Supplemental Pick and IFA for Erasmo Ramirez and Rickie Weeks since we are .500 in June. They are expected to be massive players in the market so they will be looking for the IFA Cash

[tjfla]

Jon Niese is back on the market.

[fish16]

maybe it just seems this way because school is kicking my ass, but this seems like the longest spring training ever. I feel like ive been looking at worthless box scores for 2 months.

[Namaste]

I have watched zero innings of Spring Training and read zero box scores.

I did watch a lot of the WBC.