Miami Marlins 2016 Offseason Discussion Thread

[dim]

Who needs a farm system anyway. Recent moves show Marlins don't think so.

We're gonna end up paying Jansen a quarter of a million dollars for every inning. Pretty nuts.

The closer market is horribly funny this year and I'd rather grab one when it stabilizes down the line.

[rmc523]

For a spot we really aren't hurting at, closer. Why didn't we just go after Hellickson if we were committed to spending that kind of cash? Plus we lose a draft pick. 13th overall. God, I hope he doesn't sogn

Hellickson never became a free agent, instead opting to take Philly's qualifying offer.

[Benched]

Hellickson never became a free agent, instead opting to take Philly's qualifying offer.

Well he got $17 mil. I'm sure the Marlins asked about him. Probably weren't willing to spend that much. But we are a front runner for Jansen. Ergh

[dim]

If the Marlins go and get Hammel/Fister (meaning Loria is going 2012) then cool get Jansen. If Jansen means Volquez and Locke are the only starting pitcher signings, then yeah I'm annoyed.

[HUGG]

Miami Marlins 2016 Offseason Discussion Thread

Would love Hammel, don't get the Fister obsession

Doug Fister 15/16 283.1ip 4.68fip
Jeff Locke 15/16 295.2ip 4.34fip

xFIP
Fister 15 4.46 16 4.89
Locke 15 3.94 16 4.91


I mean, if he wants to sign a 1 year deal for $3m as well, then I'll take him too

[dim]

Is that over the last two seasons?

Fister sans September and Locke in 2016 were completely different pitchers. Fister was a #3 caliber pitcher and Locke was kicked out of the rotation by mid July.

I understand the point, but there isn't reason to believe Locke should be in a major league rotation if the Pirates didn't think he did.

Both pitchers have clear flaws but Fister has a far more clear upside going into 2017.

Although to be fair Edinson Volquez has the same questions that Locke has, only Volquez got paid a lot more for them.

Locke was a solid signing as I've said in this thread before, but there is no way in hell the team should be relying on him in 2017. If he becomes a regular starting fixture then cool, but he needs to open 2017 in the David Phelps spot.

[HUGG]

I mean, if we want to do the selective stuff, Locke gave up 11er in 4.2innings in 1 start in Coors Field that raises his ERA over a half run.

They're both flawed at this point. I don't know the underlying reason for why Locke stopped throwing his breaking ball to such a big degree. I also don't know why Doug Fister went from walking 1.9 per 9 to missing the zone 54% of the time.

Fister sans September was Fister getting lucky, as all the peripherals show. His luck ran out.

[dim]

Yeah I was pretty much pointing out how selective I was being. I even stated that all these guys have inherent flaws and getting Locke for that amount is a good job.

I just can't have myself wanting the opening day rotation to be Chen, Conley, Volquez, Koehler, and Locke. That's a full 4 ERA rotation with the backup options being Phelps, Nicolino, Brice, Flores, and Urena.

At least Hammel or Fister being added provides more room for error. At this rate we're pretty much guaranteed to be an injury or terrible pitcher away from Jake Esch ending up as starter for half the season. No matter how cool Kenley Jansen is, our bullpen is going to be so taxed when the team is throwing out nothing but #4 pitchers.

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I still think the #1 plan should've been trading Ozuna to the Indians. They could've very easily tried that and found the options not matching, but that route was the best chance to acquire a guaranteed, long term #3 floor starting pitcher.

It's damn near impossible to build a real plan after Fernandez, but it's just upsetting to see the rotation we're going into 2017 with. It's reminiscent of that 2008 rotation that was headlined by Mark Hendrickson and Rick Vandenhurk.

[HUGG]

BAA Locke curveball
2013 .252
2014 .222
2015 .220
2016 it became a slider and .357

So why did he lose the curveball and can he get it back? That's really the entire Locke signing in a nutshell, he gets the curve back and we have a steal. He doesn't and he's not gonna be worth a damn.

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One nice thing is that, for once, I am confident that our staff knows this.

[dim]

Locke aside, I think the well run franchises know that the value of a good closer comes in the postseason. The Chicago Cubs sacrificed important young prospects to get Chapman for the stretch run. Chapman was a big reason the Cubs succeeded in the playoffs. This offseason, they let him go. Instead of going out and spending the money the Yankees did for Chapman or the Marlins are doing for Jensen, they went and traded from an area of strength to get Wade Davis, who is an elite closer that'll be huge for the team in the playoffs.

I'll just take every opportunity I can to marvel at the 5 year plan Epstein and Hoyer did. He understood the value of 1st round picks and hit on nearly every single one of them. They went out and spent the money in important areas with Zobrist and Lester (the biggest questionable decision they've made was Heyward, although the move seemed brilliant at the time getting ahead of the market and grabbing a 26-year-old coming off back to back 6 win seasons). They traded some of the younger, more questionable young players they've drafted/signed and turned them into important contributors. And then there's the undervalued assets they picked up along the way and found gold (Arrieta, Hammel, Rizzo, Montero, etc...). They've pretty much shown me what a real moneyball team with actual money can do.

I'm not saying we can become or should even try to become that, but the platform is out there for ways to succeed in today's game.

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BAA Locke curveball
2013 .252
2014 .222
2015 .220
2016 it became a slider and .357

So why did he lose the curveball and can he get it back? That's really the entire Locke signing in a nutshell, he gets the curve back and we have a steal. He doesn't and he's not gonna be worth a damn.

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One nice thing is that, for once, I am confident that our staff knows this.

I don't know if it's the staff knowing it as much as Benedict having previously worked with Locke and believing that he can find the problems/get him back to where he was from 2013-2015. I see it as the front office seeing the low price tag and believing it's worth a shot in a poor pitchers market, and I agree with that.

[Party]

So we're going to spend $80 million on a closer for a team that finishes 27th in runs scored? $80 million for a role they have historically been successful at finding someone that makes close to nothing?

I honestly don't understand what this team does sometimes.

[Erick]

So we're going to spend $80 million on a closer for a team that finishes 27th in runs scored? $80 million for a role they have historically been successful at finding someone that makes close to nothing?

I honestly don't understand what this team does sometimes.

The front office apparently expects the team to be better than 27th in runs scored next year.

[fish16]

Now that chap man is out, please for the love of god don't sign jansen. Spend the money on hammel and fister and build through the draft. There really is no argument on the other side unless you are loria about to sell the team next year. We are nowhere near a contender and our bullpen is already pretty good. 0 sense to sign one of the most overvalued positions in sports for an average at best team

[Namaste]

So we're going to spend $80 million on a closer for a team that finishes 27th in runs scored.

Totally legit point but their plan (after Jose's death) became go with the lockdown bullpen. We all know the FA starting pitching market was doo-doo.

I don't have any scientific data to back this up but I think it's unlikely the Marlins will be as incompetent at scoring runs this year.

However, I agree with dim that if they stop at Jansen and don't add a Hammel type or a lefty masher at 1B etc, they will come up 3 or 4 wins short of a playoff spot.

[MiamiHomer]

I'm fine with it. The Marlins haven't exactly done a great job hitting on first round picks outside of Yelich and Fernandez the last decade. If the team isn't competing in the next two years, odds are they'll get a better prospect for Jansen in trade than they would have drafted judging by how valuable these elite RPs are turning out to be for playoff teams.