Jose Fernandez Innings Watch 2016

[emkayseven]

MIAMI -- Jose Fernandez is healthy and set to pitch at the top of the Marlins' rotation. Still to be determined, however, is how to best maximize the innings the 23-year-old right-hander will throw in 2016.

The Marlins are in the process of outlining an innings range for their ace, which is expected to be around 180. Exactly how the breakdown will shape up has yet to be decided. But shortly after Spring Training gets underway, the Marlins and Fernandez will discuss his situation.


Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said on Tuesday the club will "speak to Jose and the doctors" and come up with a tentative plan. The organization notes that it will finalize the innings range before Opening Day, which is April 5, at home against the Tigers.


Miami's pitchers and catchers begin Spring Training on Friday at the Roger Dean Stadium complex in Jupiter, Fla.


Fernandez is expected to be the Opening Day starter, but manager Don Mattingly has yet to make any announcements regarding the rotation.

Fernandez, who underwent Tommy John surgery on May 16, 2014, made 11 starts in '15 and threw 64 2/3 innings.


The National League Rookie of the Year in 2013 -- after striking out 187 and posting a 2.19 ERA in 172 2/3 innings -- has thrown 116 1/3 big league innings the past two seasons.


During a May 9, 2014, start at San Diego, Fernandez complained about elbow discomfort. Tests revealed a torn ligament in his throwing elbow, and a week later, he had Tommy John surgery performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in California.

Fernandez is represented by agent Scott Boras, who in recent years was heavily involved in the innings limits for two of his other clients coming back from Tommy John surgery -- Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg and Mets right-hander Matt Harvey.


"There's going to be a range [of innings] discussed with the team and the doctors involved," Boras told FoxSports.com.


Fernandez made his 2015 debut on July 2, and quickly regained his All-Star form. The right-hander finished last season 6-1 with a 2.92 ERA and struck out 79 while walking 14.


Last August, Fernandez had another injury scare when he suffered a right biceps strain, which caused him to miss five weeks.


If the Marlins are to contend, they will be counting on Fernandez to pitch at a high level. But along the way, the club will have to monitor his use.


One suggestion is to simply line him up for 30 starts and not allow him to exceed six innings, which is one way to get to 180. Or periodically skip a start or two over the long season.


In his career, Fernandez has never had an outing longer than eight innings, a mark that he's reached on five separate occasions.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/164658...s-innings-plan

[Jay]

Using innings pitched as a measure of arm wear is dumb.

[Madman81]

Using innings pitched as a measure of arm wear is dumb.

and this:

One suggestion is to simply line him up for 30 starts and not allow him to exceed six innings, which is one way to get to 180. Or periodically skip a start or two over the long season.

is especially dumb

[Nick]

yep, a ton of stupidity in that article.

[thatnewguy]

I don't know. I'm not totally opposed to the idea of skipping his turn in the rotation a few times early in the season if it means you get to have him down the stretch a la Matt Harvey. That being said, the Marlins don't have what the Mets had behind him so I guess it's not that easy a decision to make.

[tjfla]

The Yankees or Dodgers must be smiling right now. They will get him as soon as he is full strength throwing 200+

The innings thing is a joke especially since he is here for 2 more years

[Jay]

The idea that every innings has the same amount of wear on an arm is misguided. The idea that all pitches have the same stress on an arm is wrong. So many factors go into play when looking at this.

On a side note does anyone know where I could access data on every pitch?

[HUGG]

I mean, I'll be really fucking happy if we get 180 innings out of him this year. I absolutely don't expect it to happen.

[lou]

I don't see the problem. The innings should be a sliding scale based on stress and pitches thrown. A hard cap is stupid because all 180 innings are not the same.

The only limitations I personally would do is take him out of 6-1 ball games at the end of the 6th inning and assume the bullpen can protect 5 runs (etc.), and be very conservative over 90 pitches in all situations. Basically, only use him when you need him, don't push him far over 100 pitches, and that'll keep innings down naturally. I don't think skipping a few limited starts would hurt either, especially if its weaker opponents or short rest situations. Boras would be pleased to protect his future payday, even if Fernandez is frustrated short term. Jose would get over it.

Of course, I expect to see him pitching into the 8th inning in games the Marlins are up 10-1 at home in April against the Braves and Phillies.

[Jay]

I don't see the problem. The innings should be a sliding scale based on stress and pitches thrown. A hard cap is stupid because all 180 innings are not the same.

The only limitations I personally would do is take him out of 6-1 ball games at the end of the 6th inning and assume the bullpen can protect 5 runs (etc.), and be very conservative over 90 pitches in all situations. Basically, only use him when you need him, don't push him far over 100 pitches, and that'll keep innings down naturally. I don't think skipping a few limited starts would hurt either, especially if its weaker opponents or short rest situations. Boras would be pleased to protect his future payday, even if Fernandez is frustrated short term. Jose would get over it.

Of course, I expect to see him pitching into the 8th inning in games the Marlins are up 10-1 at home in April against the Braves and Phillies.

The second paragraph would be a common sense approach. Skipping starts is a horrible idea as he needs to be throwing on a regular basis anyway, why should it just be out of game on that day? Maybe for those skipped starts he has his 50 pitch workout to start the game and then you bring in the long-man.

Do you really expect the marlins to be ahead by 9 runs in many games to begin with, but yeah that's something past managers would have done?

[lou]

No, but you get what I'm saying. I just think an innings cap is dumb. Use him smartly, and it's not a problem. This shouldn't be an issue.

And for past managers, I suspect they'd pull him in 10-2 games, but an ordinary say 6-2 game entering the 7th? I suspect most managers would stick with Jose for another inning. Ordinarily I would too, but given the situation, I'd give the game to Morris/whoever and assume they can protect 4 runs to get the game to Capps and Ramos. If this is going to work, they need Fernandez with gas left in the tank in September and its worth that risk. 3-2 game? Keep him in if the pitch count is reasonable, etc.

[Jay]

We're definitely over simplifying these decisions. It would be unwise to not consider the batter-pitcher match ups that could occur in the next inning. That's a little much to ask of this organization, but hey we have an analytics department now

[lou]

We're definitely over simplifying these decisions. It would be unwise to not consider the batter-pitcher match ups that could occur in the next inning. That's a little much to ask of this organization, but hey we have an analytics department now

I mean sure, if Freddie Freeman is up with a runner on in a 4 run game, he stays in. But generally speaking, there are simply going to be opportunities to take him out and will they or won't they? I'm suspecting the later, and hoping for the former in an effort to pitch a smart 170-190 innings.

[marlinsfan24]

That 180 number is interesting considering he's only pitched just over 180 the past two years, total. But I don't expect him to make it near that mark anyways, so, its a moot point.

[emkayseven]

The whole thing is dumb. He's gone in a few years, he already had TJ, use him as much as possible while you've still got him