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I grossly overestimated the team last year. 39 projected, only 26 fWAR/25 rWAR. Almost 11 WAR of that difference came from the bench (-4 fWAR, +1 projected WAR) and rotation (6.8 fWAR, 12.5 projected WAR). Only -1 fWAR difference each for our starting line up and bullpen. Did pretty good in 2014, too (31.2 fWAR, 30.5 projected WAR).
So trying not to let that repeat this year. Still might not be harsh enough on the bench and rotation but it's hard to be harder.
So basicallyyyyy I think we're a .500 team the next 3 years as is.
Hitting
I have our hitters at 19 WAR, which is essentially average. I think any regression in Dee/Hech will be made up by progression from Yelich and Ozuna. Basically is what we were last year, except this year we don't have Morse, Solano, Mathis, and McGehee (PLEASE) and their combined -3 WAR.
The bench sticks out as being bad, and we need legit LH and RH options to replace Ichiro and Gillespie. 1B sticks out as a problem, which would also then improve the bench by moving Bour there. Outside of maybe a RH bat, none of that is happening though.
To get from "average" to "above average", we'd have to hope for improvement from our starters. The good news being that you could easily dream at least 1 WAR each improvement on Dee, Hech, Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton. I think our position players are in a good position. There's room to upgrade the roster, but you also hope the youthful roster improves on it's own.
Pitching
Like the hitting, bullpen is basically same situation as last year. Top heavy with Ramos and Capps, with everyone else contributing about 1 WAR total. This should be a good-but-not-best bullpen.
9 WAR is actually only a bit below average for SP...except that SP is very polarized. The 6 best teams (16.6-19.2 WAR) were significantly better than the other 9 (4.3-10.1) last year. Only the Nats missed the playoffs in the first group, and the only team to finish above .500 in the second group were the Giants (who had the best hitting fWAR). "No shit" but this is the obvious hole that needs to be filled.
2016
Assuming around a 70m payroll again, we currently have about ~7m free. Dumping Phelps, Morris, and Dunn would be another ~7m free, giving us close to 15m for one SP. If we want to sign two, we need to break an 80m payroll. Which would still be a bottom-3 payroll this past season. Boohoo.
2017
Payroll is still pretty low with Salty and Dunn coming off the books. Decline Ichiro's option and trading Koehler and Cosart (I already have us getting rid of Phelps) puts us down to about 60m in obligations, which is actually less than this year. Sign two SP and we're running basically the same team in back to back years on a 80-85m payroll that's probably "second tier" good in the NL, so possible playoff potential in a weak NL East/second wild card spot.
2018
Firesale time, with it being the last year of Dee, Jose, Hech, Ramos, and Capps arbitration. Stanton also gone as his salary goes up significantly. We roll out with a 50m payroll mostly of unheralded rookies and veterans way past their prime that have a history with the team. Just another year in being a Marlins fan.
So trying not to let that repeat this year. Still might not be harsh enough on the bench and rotation but it's hard to be harder.
So basicallyyyyy I think we're a .500 team the next 3 years as is.
Hitting
I have our hitters at 19 WAR, which is essentially average. I think any regression in Dee/Hech will be made up by progression from Yelich and Ozuna. Basically is what we were last year, except this year we don't have Morse, Solano, Mathis, and McGehee (PLEASE) and their combined -3 WAR.
The bench sticks out as being bad, and we need legit LH and RH options to replace Ichiro and Gillespie. 1B sticks out as a problem, which would also then improve the bench by moving Bour there. Outside of maybe a RH bat, none of that is happening though.
To get from "average" to "above average", we'd have to hope for improvement from our starters. The good news being that you could easily dream at least 1 WAR each improvement on Dee, Hech, Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton. I think our position players are in a good position. There's room to upgrade the roster, but you also hope the youthful roster improves on it's own.
Pitching
Like the hitting, bullpen is basically same situation as last year. Top heavy with Ramos and Capps, with everyone else contributing about 1 WAR total. This should be a good-but-not-best bullpen.
9 WAR is actually only a bit below average for SP...except that SP is very polarized. The 6 best teams (16.6-19.2 WAR) were significantly better than the other 9 (4.3-10.1) last year. Only the Nats missed the playoffs in the first group, and the only team to finish above .500 in the second group were the Giants (who had the best hitting fWAR). "No shit" but this is the obvious hole that needs to be filled.
2016
Assuming around a 70m payroll again, we currently have about ~7m free. Dumping Phelps, Morris, and Dunn would be another ~7m free, giving us close to 15m for one SP. If we want to sign two, we need to break an 80m payroll. Which would still be a bottom-3 payroll this past season. Boohoo.
2017
Payroll is still pretty low with Salty and Dunn coming off the books. Decline Ichiro's option and trading Koehler and Cosart (I already have us getting rid of Phelps) puts us down to about 60m in obligations, which is actually less than this year. Sign two SP and we're running basically the same team in back to back years on a 80-85m payroll that's probably "second tier" good in the NL, so possible playoff potential in a weak NL East/second wild card spot.
2018
Firesale time, with it being the last year of Dee, Jose, Hech, Ramos, and Capps arbitration. Stanton also gone as his salary goes up significantly. We roll out with a 50m payroll mostly of unheralded rookies and veterans way past their prime that have a history with the team. Just another year in being a Marlins fan.
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