Offseason 2015-2016

[thatnewguy]

Hmm, I didn't know that.

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I learned a new thing today.

[lou]

So how much is a 27 year old Jose worth in 3 years, if a 32-37 year old Greinke gets $206? I saw somewhere around $60 million is deferred, so present value of the deal is roughly $190 million. Assuming health and relative domination, he'd probably jump Price as is based on age, let alone inflation. I think he's looking at $250+ million, maybe even $300, in 3 seasons. Which is crazy.

That being said, I'm thinking what's a realistic projection if the Marlins aggressively want to sign him for 3 free agency years (which lets Jose get a second major contract at age 30).

The closest comp for his service time is probably Kluber, but there were two deals which lead up to Kluber.

Madison Bumgarner lhp
5 years/$35M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 club options (total with all options $57.5, plus incentive bumps)
signed extension with San Francisco 4/17/12
$1M signing bonus
13:$0.75M, 14:$3.75M, 15:$6.75M, 16:$9.75M, 17:$11.5M, 18:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout), 19:$12M club option
2018 option guaranteed with 200 IP in 2017 or 400 IP in 2016-17
options increase to $14M with top 3 finish in Cy Young vote 2012-17 or to $16M with Cy Young award 2012-17
award bonuses, including $25,000 for All-Star selection

Clearly Sale deal was structured after Bumgarners

Chris Sale lhp
5 years/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 club options (total $57.5 with all options, plus incentive bumps)
signed extension with Chicago White Sox 3/7/13
replaced 1 year/$0.6M deal signed 2/22/13
13:$0.85M, 14:$3.5M, 15:$6M, 16:$9.15M, 17:$12M, 18:$12.5M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)

Corey Kluber rhp
5 years/$38.5M (2015-19), plus 2020-21 club options $0.601M (2015) (total $65 with all options, plus incentive bumps. Note TWO FA years here)
signed extension with Cleveland 4/5/15, replacing one-year deal for $0.601M signed 3/11/15
$1M signing bonus
15:$1M, 16:$4.5M, 17:$7.5M, 18:$10.5M, 19:$13M, 20:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout), 21:$14M club option ($1M buyout)

And others just for comparison on some buyouts. Side note - good for John Danks agent. These deals were done at earlier years of service time than Fernandez, and when each of these guys accomplished less. Not good comps, but just fodder for discussion maybe.

John Danks lhp
5 years/$65M (2012-16)
signed extension with Chicago White Sox 12/23/11 (avoided arbitration)
$7.5M signing bonus (paid between 6/12 and 10/12)
12:$0.5M, 13:$14.25M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.25M, 16:$14.25M

Jose Quintana lhp
5 years/$21M (2014-18), plus 2019-20 club options
signed extension with Chicago White Sox 3/23/14, replacing 1 year/$0.55M deal signed 3/1/14
14:$0.85M, 15:$1M, 16:$3.8M, 17:$6M, 18:$8.35M, 19:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout), 20:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout)

Jon Niese lhp
5 years/$25.5195M (2012-16), plus 2017-18 club options
signed extension with NY Mets 4/4/12
$0.25M signing bonus
12:$0.7695M, 13:$3M, 14:$5M, 15:$7M, 16:$9M, 17:$10M club option ($0.5M buyout), 18:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout)

Carlos Carrasco rhp
4 years/$22M (2015-18), plus 2019-20 club options
signed extension with Cleveland 4/6/15, expanding one-year contract for $2.3375M signed 1/15/15, avoiding arbitration
15:$2.3375M, 16:$4.5M, 17:$6.5M, 18:$8M, 19:$9M club option ($0.6625M buyout), 20:$9.5M club option ($0.6625M buyout)

Chris Archer rhp
6 years/25.5M (2014-19), plus 2020-21 club options
signed extension with Tampa Bay 4/2/14, replacing 1-year contract for $0.5112M signed 3/2/14
$1M signing bonus
14:$0.5M, 15:$1M, 16:$2.75M, 17:$4.75M, 18:$6.25M, 19:$7.5M, 20:$9M club option ($1.75M buyout), 21:$11M club option ($0.25M buyout)

Julio Teheran rhp
6 years/$32.4M (2014-19), plus 2020 club option
signed extension with Atlanta 2/14/14
$1M signing bonus
14:$0.8, 15:$1M, 16:$3.3M, 17:$6.3M, 18:$8M, 19:$11MM, 20:$12M club option ($1M buyout)

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One last thing, I think there are 5 others who may get deals this offseason - Keuchel, Arrieta, DeGrom, Harvey, and Cole - who all would be similar comps as they are generally of the same "ace" stature as Fernandez. Thankfully, they all may be a bit more accomplished based on how devastating those 5 were last year so if one of them gets a good (or bad) deal, could reset the market.

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As for Jose, he's probably going to make $25-30 in arbitration the next 3 seasons. Nothing he can do about that. Free agency years are clearly worth over $30+ at this point with Greinke and Price setting the market. Realistically, he could make $120 over the next 6 via arbitration and a new contract once he is finished.

Guaranteed money is obnoxiously low on current buy outs ($35-40 million based on Bumgarner, Sale, and Kluber), with club options getting to the $65 million range. It's important to note that Kluber has 2 free agency years in his deal, where it's likely the Marlins would want a third one with Fernandez. Marlins would seriously need to bump the guaranteed money.

Assuming the Marlins would want that third free agency year, I think a break down could be something like these two examples. One is a double option-Marlins beneficial version, the other a more Jose beneficial version with more guaranteed bucks.

Marlins beneficial

16 - $4
17 - $8
18 - $13
19 - $25
20 - $27 club option / $5 buyout
21 - $28 Club option / $3 buyout

Guaranteed 4/$55, total possible value 6/$105

Fernandez beneficial

16 - $4
17 - $8
18 - $13
19 - $25
20 - $27
21 - $28 Club option / $3 buyout

That is a guaranteed 5/$80, total possible value 6/$105.

Blows Kluber deal out of the water either way with much more guaranteed money (which has to be done to account for that 3rd free agency year). I think this would be enough for Fernandez to sign, as he would be getting a really nice record setting chunk of guaranteed money, real upside with a 6 digit deal with the options, and be a free agent at 30 to get the opportunity for a "Price" level contract. Likewise, he has had an arm surgery obviously, so this mitigates his risk of a second potential injury. He's a year away from a bigger arb2 payday, so the Marlins do have some leverage right now if they are willing to guarantee a real chunk.

Considering its Boras, I think I would split the difference between these two deals and try and offer him a deal guaranteeing around $65 (i.e., what Kluber gets with his options), and work out the final annual value contracts to something in the $100-110million range for the 6 years. It's worth it. He's special enough to do it.

Of course this won't happen, but just thinking about it since that Greinke deal is so insane. The buyout prices have gone up big time with Price and him how I see it.

[emkayseven]

What a waste of your time

he gone

[HUGG]

Lou just put more effort into that than we will trying to re-sign Fernandez

[tjfla]

The Alvarez non tender looks like a smart move on our part.

Only 10 teams are interested or as some sites say MASSIVE interest

I don't understand why u atleast don't tender him and trade him?

[lou]

Lou just put more effort into that than we will trying to re-sign Fernandez

It was honestly less than 20 minutes, so I agree, probably more effort.

[dim]

Lou just put more effort into that than we will trying to re-sign Fernandez

I legit laughed at that because it is all too true.

Good work lou, and putting Fernandez at a tier just below those five seems right due to injury issues. That said it's hard to even think about it because we all know how this ends.

[emkayseven]

Samardzija got 5/90. Think that resets the market a bit. Not that we'll get involved in the market.

[tjfla]

Samardzija got 5/90. Think that resets the market a bit. Not that we'll get involved in the market.

Doesn't SF usually get discounts tho?

[emkayseven]

Jayson StarkESPN Staff/Senior Writer


Hearing lots of consternation from other clubs about the Zack Greinke deal. Sources say the Dbacks got almost $80M in revenue sharing over the last 3 years. And they just raised the superstar salary bar from $31M a year to over $34M.

other teams use their revenue sharing money?!?!

[Jay]

other teams use their revenue sharing money?!?![/FONT][/COLOR]

So teams complain if you use revenue sharing money or if you don't use it?

[lou]

other teams use their revenue sharing money?!?![/FONT][/COLOR]

More importantly if the D-Backs for $80, did Loria get $125?

[Swifty]

other teams use their revenue sharing money?!?![/FONT][/COLOR]

I think it's like using food stamps for lobster argument. The Marlins use their food stamps for sinus medication to then turn around and cook meth. I think both can cause frustration.

[tjfla]

So teams complain if you use revenue sharing money or if you don't use it?

Revenue Sharing is suppose to make teams equal NOT better.(Well that is what the top teams think)

Welcome to MLB in 2015. They have "rules" to try to make teams equal-Revenue Sharing,Draft Pools,IFA Pools,Draft Picks. The problem is teams dont know how to maximize this. Not to names all of them but lets say Arizona/Houston/KC are teams that have figured it out while MIAMI has NOT!!!

Unlike Zona who invests cash into FA/IFA/Draft we invest cash into Jeff's pocket

[rmc523]

Revenue Sharing is suppose to make teams equal NOT better.(Well that is what the top teams think)

Welcome to MLB in 2015. They have "rules" to try to make teams equal-Revenue Sharing,Draft Pools,IFA Pools,Draft Picks. The problem is teams dont know how to maximize this. Not to names all of them but lets say Arizona/Houston/KC are teams that have figured it out while MIAMI has NOT!!!

Unlike Zona who invests cash into FA/IFA/Draft we invest cash into Jeff's pocket

Yeah, I was going to say it's not like other teams haven't figured out how to use the system to their advantage. But they do so by actually spending money......if they can't spend it in free agency, they spend it in the draft, IFA, etc. as you said. We spend it nowhere, buying more art for Loria.

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I find it funny that the big market clubs are complaining that a mid-market team signed one guy to a huge contract, when they sign guys to huge contracts all the time like its nothing. boo hoo.