2015 Off-season Arbitration Projections

[tjfla]

Aaron Crow (5.000) – $1.975MM
Chris Narveson (4.073) – $900K
Henderson Alvarez (4.051) – $4.0MM
David Phelps (3.156) – $2.5MM
Dee Gordon (3.154) – $5.9MM
Donovan Solano (3.061) – $800K
Adeiny Hechavarria (3.060) – $2.3MM
A.J. Ramos (3.030) – $2.8MM
Tom Koehler (3.016) – $3.9MM
Bryan Morris (3.011) – $1.1MM
Carter Capps (3.007) – $800K
Jose Fernandez (3.000) – $2.2MM

Don't love them.

I think Alvarez, Phelps, Gordon (unfortunately), and Ramos are pretty good. Gordon is really going to hurt them. I would even think maybe higher.

I'm not even looking at Crow, Narveson, and Solano as they are cuts.

Hech is going to make more based on this season, I think it's going to be closer to $3 but maybe slightly under.

Koehler won't get that high, I think he maxes out at $3.5

Morris should get a few more but not much, $1.3, $1.4

Capps is probably an even $1 million, and they are lucky he was hurt because he could have made some serious bucks if he kept up the dominance.

Fernandez at least $ 1 million more. Boras is going to make the Marlins life a living hell. There is no fucking way he gets $2.2.

Solano is gone. Rojas is ahead of him and Nola/Soto are gonna be in AAA as depth.

Narveson is gone and Crow is gone however hearing he might be willing to sign a minor league deal with incentives

Koehler or Phelps(1 of them) probably are dealt during ST.

All others will be on the team next year

[lou]

Hech will sign a long-term deal before arbitration anyway.

He should absolutely try and get a 4-5 year deal and trick the Marlins the defense will always be that good.

That being said, I'm really not opposed if the price is right. He is turning 27 and I do think there is some slugging potential in his bat (another 15-20 XBH a season or so. No delusions of grandeur here). If he is a 2 WAR guy average next 5 years (3 WAR in 2015 so there is some upside), that's going to be worth say a 5/$30 type of deal. That's pretty cheap relatively speaking. I'd be surprised if Hech holds out for more. He isn't going to get the Elvis Andrus deal. No one ever is again.

Although, I thought they should have signed BJ Upton (albeit at prices lower than Atlanta) years back, so maybe I'm just being drunk on the 2015 defense and ignoring 2013-2014 too much. I really don't have any issue going arbitration-arbitration with him either, which may be a smarter decision.

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Solano is gone. Rojas is ahead of him and Nola/Soto are gonna be in AAA as depth.

Narveson is gone and Crow is gone however hearing he might be willing to sign a minor league deal with incentives

Koehler or Phelps(1 of them) probably are dealt during ST.

All others will be on the team next year

Koehler is not sticking around for $3.25-4 next year, when Phelps is going to make $2.5. They are going to be the team's 6th SP more than likely (Fernandez, X, X/Alvarez, Cosart, Nicolino). I don't think there is much to debate there. I agree they keep one and money will dictate that situation. Obviously Alvarez, Gordon, Hech, Ramos, Morris, Capps, and Fernandez are back.

Also, I think payroll is around $63 next year, but drops to around $57 sans Koehler and Dunn who I imagine are jettisoned. FWIW, I trade Koehler and Dunn for young lefty relievers if possible. I doubt they could net a young 3B worth anything for them.

They only need 2 SP and a lefty basher (maybe a better backup C) to fill out the 25, so you hope payroll is significantly higher than $57 and they can get those guys. I still like Samardzija on a 1 year prove it deal, and Kazmir would be perfect. I can't imagine those two costing more than $25 combined. Throw in a cost effective lefty basher, and they can do it sub-$80. Of course, not sure if Papa Loria thinks thats reasonable....

[tjfla]

I agree with u on Dunn and Koehler, Dunn should be gone especially with Conley/Lazo and Hand ready and 3 guys sitting in AAA but Jeff loves Dunn. As for Koehler I would deal him during the meetings-controllable SP teams always love. Either Koehler or Phelps will be traded tho with Koehler have alot more value

Colorado has a great 3B prospect in Ryan McMahon who is blocked by Arenado. They had alot of interest in Koehler,maybe see what it would take for him? ?

[Miamarlin21]

I would be down for that trade TJ, but I don't know if Koehler could fetch that. They might have to add in another pitcher for it (which I might would be OK with.)

[lou]

Reports are saying they are going to offer Gordon a longterm extension. He has 3 arb years left, and turns 28 start of next season.

I'm wondering if they could do something like $5-7-10-13-15 (5/$50). I suspect that is a bit low though, even if probably fair. I'd be real scared to give him a 6/$70 type of deal. Andrus comp is really bad, but the Gyorko, Kipnis, and Dozier comps aren't killer.

I think if it gets too high you take the 3 arbitration years and the draft pick. I'm fearful of committing to speed first guys even if his 2014-2015 have been pretty great.

[nny]

You don't commit to speed, defense, and a career year.

[Jay]

You don't commit to speed, defense, and a career year.

You forgot this is the marlins

[marlinsfan24]

You don't commit to speed, defense, and a career year.

Marlins commit to all 3.

[thatnewguy]

And commit to nothing else.

[dim]

I'm fine with the defense and speed, I just hate the Marlins always looking to sign people after career years. It leaves them looking to pawn off the contracts once those players tail off a bit. Happens far more often for a team that's always looking to save a dollar.