Ozuna Optioned

[Jay]

Precisely why I hope we grab two pitchers this offseason. We got a #1, we have a ? at #3, and we're plentiful in #4 and #5.

Do you think we need a #2 and #3 or do you think 2 #3s will work?

[dim]

I'm not sure how you can argue for keeping a reliever in Cishek because of his track record and then castigate Latos despite his track record. Your arguments for Cishek are the exact same as the pro-Latos arguments.

That's very inconsistent.

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And God help the Marlins if that's our rotation next year.

As far as I know Cishek doesn't have any real injury history. I get it's only the knee, but Latos was an ace not long ago and isn't showing it anymore. Cishek won't command eight figures next year. Latos likely will. I'm pro Cishek because he was hugely consistent for us and went off the rails for whatever reason. There's no reason to suspect that he'll never be the same pitcher again. I have reason to believe Latos will never be a low 3 ERA guy again. I view Latos next season as far more of a risk than Cishek.

Also Erick, I don't see the problem with looking at ERA. Yes it fluctuates and can stay low or go up high due to luck, but the end thing that matters is giving up runs. I have an idea of the kind of pitchers I want and Latos is costing us games. ERA shows me at least a small taste of that. Sure I like his BB/K ratio and would love if he posted more of those 6/7 IP 1 ER allowed games, but they are wildly inconsistent even now. I look at cost vs reward and don't see Latos as worth the risk. I'd rather use a rotation spot the rest of this year and into next year to give guys like Urena/Nicolino/Flores a look and hope one of them breaks out and becomes a consistent starter for next year (which I feel good that Urena is capable of becoming). Each of those three guys would come at a minimum cost. I want to spend $0 on Latos and use that extra money on somebody who has a consistent track record, including 2015, who can be counted on to be at the very least a #3 next season. I'm about managing assets, and for me Latos is more of an asset for us as a trade piece and the prospects he would give us in return than as a legitimate #3 starter on this team to start next season.

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Fernandez/Alvarez/Urena/Nicolino/Cosart/Brice 6 man rotation.

Austin Brice has proven absolutely nothing. Two good starts in a row doesn't make a great pitcher. Brice is at least two years away from MAYBE getting a bullpen role with the major league squad, but he'd need to improve a hell of a lot and stop walking so many people if he ever wants a shot at anything above AAA.

I'm indifferent about Cosart as even when he was in the low 2 ERA's last year you could tell he wasn't a great pitcher. Walks too many guys and his stuff never wowed anybody. As a #5 he's probably fine, but there's no way in hell we can go into next year with Urena/Nicolino as our #3 and 4. Worst case scenario would be them being our #4/5 guys, and the scenario I'd like honestly is them both fighting for the #5 spot, Phelps and Cosart fighting for that #4 spot in spring training, and going out into free agency and getting a real #3. And that's not talking about how we could by some random event re-sign Haren and add the fact that Hand/Koehler are still under contract. We have a lot of options, they are all just #5 starters in a playoff team. I guess I have more trust in Alvarez returning to a low 3 ERA pitcher than most on this board (yes his UCL has problems, but there's no reports that it's going to hinder his career whenever he returns) and still think him and Fernandez are a really good MLB #1/2 combo. I just wish we had that third guy, and there's nobody on this team that fits that role (Realistically Haren is a good #4, even if he's pitched like a 3 so far this year).

[HUGG]

Latos coming into 2015: 3.34era 3.41fip 7.8h/9 2.7bb/9 8.1k/9
Latos since returning from DL: 3.31era 3.42fip 6.3h/9 2.2bb/9 8.5k/9

[dim]

That's like 5 starts versus 9. I understand the idea behind it (increased velocity, better K/BB ratio, etc...), but one of those starts was awful and another involved 9 hits allowed (NYY). Big thing is I need to see more than 5 starts before I'd feel good in dedicating over $10 million of the payroll next year to that guy. Plus our system is absolutely barren and I think a Latos trade could help a little in replenishing it. If Latos keeps a low 3 ERA with the same high K low walk ratio into the end of the month I would think he's possibly back to at least a little of his old self, but even then I'd still trade him. Basically if he pitches awful come July 31st we won't get any really good return in a trade and will have to wait until the end of the season to let him walk and get our picks. If he pitches great, we can't afford him in the offseason (we won't have a four year deal worth a ton of money to give) and either trade him for a good return come the trade deadline or let him walk for the picks.

Either way, I really don't see any way Latos is pitching for us in 2016.

[nny]

Do you think we need a #2 and #3 or do you think 2 #3s will work?

Going off on a tangent...

I always kind of hate using the # system because what exactly is a 1, 2, etc. For me, looking at it by the numbers, I break the qualified SP into 5ths, then drop the last bucket (for instance, this year, that bucket is 4.50-6.30 ERA. That's not rotation worthy), and then take that new total into fifths again. Which, for this year...

#1 = sub-2.60 ERA, at least 145 ERA+
#2 = 2.60-3.20 ERA, 120-145 ERA+
#3 = 3.20-3.50 ERA, 105-120 ERA+
#4 = 3.50-3.90 ERA, 95-105 ERA+
#5 = 3.90-4.50 ERA, 85-95 ERA+

Which is more or less #1 as an ace, a #2 is well above average, #3 is slightly above average, #4 is average, and #5 is below average but serviceable. Which I think is what most people think, but I like putting numbers to names.

Soooo going back to actual topic, I think two #3's is fine. The market is very flooded with #1-#3, and I'd rather sign two #3's for 15m each than one #1 for 30m personally.

And I know it's kind of blasphemous, but I really do wonder of Alvarez even really being a #3. He's really young and his ERA was amazing in 2014, but his peripherals have never been better than average...

(In case you're interested, not removing the last bucket:

#1 = sub-2.80 ERA, at least 135 ERA+
#2 = 2.80-3.35 ERA, 115-135 ERA+
#3 = 3.35-3.85 ERA, 100-115 ERA+
#4 = 3.85-4.50 ERA, 85-100 ERA+
#5 = 4.50-6.30 ERA, 60-85 ERA

Going by that, would want at least one #2)

[Namaste]

If I'm understanding this correctly, dim is ignoring all advanced stats that say Latos has been good since returning from his injury.

[Jay]

[MENTION=293]dim[/MENTION]
You just said you like results in earned runs but then immediately said Cosart suck despite his Era last year. You speak highly of haren and nicolino who both should be no where near the rotation let alone the roster next year. You've said you're fine with overpaying for haren with latos money despite the fact they have the same win expectancy this year and latos projects to be better whereas Haren looks like he should be throwing batting practice

[nny]

Not saying it's common, but didn't that exact situation happen with Jason Hammel last year with the Cubs....he was with them and traded to Oakland and then redesigned with the Cubs last offseason.

Definitely possible, and would be awesome to talk to Latos and see what his interest level would be in coming back if we're a bidder. But it's a lot more often that the player re-signs with the team they were traded to.

[Jay]

Going off on a tangent...

I always kind of hate using the # system because what exactly is a 1, 2, etc. For me, looking at it by the numbers, I break the qualified SP into 5ths, then drop the last bucket (for instance, this year, that bucket is 4.50-6.30 ERA. That's not rotation worthy), and then take that new total into fifths again. Which, for this year...

#1 = sub-2.60 ERA, at least 145 ERA+
#2 = 2.60-3.20 ERA, 120-145 ERA+
#3 = 3.20-3.50 ERA, 105-120 ERA+
#4 = 3.50-3.90 ERA, 95-105 ERA+
#5 = 3.90-4.50 ERA, 85-95 ERA+

Which is more or less #1 as an ace, a #2 is well above average, #3 is slightly above average, #4 is average, and #5 is below average but serviceable. Which I think is what most people think, but I like putting numbers to names.

Soooo going back to actual topic, I think two #3's is fine. The market is very flooded with #1-#3, and I'd rather sign two #3's for 15m each than one #1 for 30m personally.

And I know it's kind of blasphemous, but I really do wonder of Alvarez even really being a #3. He's really young and his ERA was amazing in 2014, but his peripherals have never been better than average...

(In case you're interested, not removing the last bucket:

#1 = sub-2.80 ERA, at least 135 ERA+
#2 = 2.80-3.35 ERA, 115-135 ERA+
#3 = 3.35-3.85 ERA, 100-115 ERA+
#4 = 3.85-4.50 ERA, 85-100 ERA+
#5 = 4.50-6.30 ERA, 60-85 ERA

Going by that, would want at least one #2)

I think most people talk about the first breakdown when classifying starters. I like the 2 3s route myself because Alvarez is such a wildcard. I'd love latos at 15 mill for 1 year and another #3 or better for multi-year deal this offseason. And I say that for latos because it makes little sense to not make a qualifying offer to him or trade him for scrub prospects that are worse than the pick would net.

[nny]

It really is frustrating to think that, going by the top buckets, we currently have nothing besides Jose and maybe Alvarez that we could confidently say is more than a #5. Outside of an outlier like Tom Koehler having a 3.40 ERA yet a 4.50 FIP after tonight's start. And they'll look at the ERA and call him a #3. Sigh. Trade high!

But is anyone really confident enough in one of Nicolino, Urena, Cosart, Phelps, or Koehler putting up better than a 3.90 ERA? I mean, they could maybe slightly best that number. But I mean full on confident that they're even a solid #4. Because I don't see it in any of them.

[Jay]

I'm not confident half those names are solid 5s. Keep phelps or koehler and urena on that list imo

[dim]

[MENTION=293]dim[/MENTION]
You just said you like results in earned runs but then immediately said Cosart suck despite his Era last year. You speak highly of haren and nicolino who both should be no where near the rotation let alone the roster next year. You've said you're fine with overpaying for haren with latos money despite the fact they have the same win expectancy this year and latos projects to be better whereas Haren looks like he should be throwing batting practice

I don't want to give Haren "Latos" money. I'll backstep on that Haren line. I'll give him $8 million on a two year deal but I couldn't go higher. I like Nicolino mostly because his success has always messed with every statheads preconceived notion of how a pitcher should succeed. I'm honestly rooting for him just to break the system, and a little because he's done the same thing 95% of his career and I'm done arguing against him.

I still stand by the fact that ERA means a great deal and by that fact Cosart was incredibly good last year. I'm not gonna be an idiot and close my eyes when it's obvious a guy is getting really lucky and getting away with a lot (namely very poor control). It seems likely the Marlins rushed Latos back and he's a better pitcher than his early season numbers dictate, and Haren isn't a low 3 ERA guy long term, but I'm simply not denying the consistency Haren brings each and every start. A ton of starts being 6 IP with 2 ER allowed just creates peace of mind in knowing what type of pitcher he is. Latos going 7 IP 1 ER allowed and then the next night going out and giving up 5 ER another night just doesn't let me know what pitcher I have moving forward. Yes, Latos can become the #2 pitcher he was in Cinci again and we'd be getting a bargain at that rate. But there's still the decent chance he may never be a 200 IP low 3 ERA guy again. Again, I see it as risk/reward. While Latos has a much higher potential reward than Haren, the risk is also much greater in my eyes and likely more costly. I'd rather pay less for Haren to be our #3 next year.

That being said there's literally no chance Haren would re-sign with us and we have to trade him at the deadline. I believe Latos is a goner too. I'm honestly fine with that. While we're not paying Haren, but him and Latos are both making near $20 million combined for this season, and they'll likely command more in the offseason. I'd rather keep the $20 million, trade Haren/Latos as pieces to help rebuild our terrible farm system, put 1 or 2 of Urena/Nicolino/ at the back end of the rotation for under a combined million dollars (or Phelps/Koehler/Hand, but that would still cost more) and get a consistently good #3 in free agency (I did a really quick look through the free agent pitchers, but I wouldn't be totally opposed with trying to steal Jordan Zimmermann away from the Nationals with a little overpay).

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If I'm understanding this correctly, dim is ignoring all advanced stats that say Latos has been good since returning from his injury.

I don't think I'm ignoring them. I think I want more than 5 starts to hand over an eight figure deal for next year and commit a starting rotation spot. I'd love Latos to be a low 3 ERA guy again. I'm just a little skeptical of how sustainable it is.

- - - - - - - - - -

It really is frustrating to think that, going by the top buckets, we currently have nothing besides Jose and maybe Alvarez that we could confidently say is more than a #5. Outside of an outlier like Tom Koehler having a 3.40 ERA yet a 4.50 FIP after tonight's start. And they'll look at the ERA and call him a #3. Sigh. Trade high!

But is anyone really confident enough in one of Nicolino, Urena, Cosart, Phelps, or Koehler putting up better than a 3.90 ERA? I mean, they could maybe slightly best that number. But I mean full on confident that they're even a solid #4. Because I don't see it in any of them.

I agree on Koehler 100%. Love the guy but what he's done for almost two years now has been crazy and doesn't feel sustainable as he gets older. I actually feel good about Urena, but I think I'm the only one. But I've agreed in the past that we have far to many #5's at our disposal and nobody that we can go into next season with and think "this guy is without a doubt going to be at least a good pitcher next year". It's a serious problem. Lots of options, very few sure fire good ones.

[Jay]

Haren signed a 10 mil deal that had another 2.5 mill of incentives with an option for the next year that vested with 180 ip that had the same money and incentives before 2014 offseason. His Era was 4.67 in 2013. His k rate had bounced back a little. He had logged at least 30 starts for since 2005.

Latos is about 5 years younger than haren was then but does have a minor injury risk and will finish with an Era lower than haren was that year and an increase of K rate. This is the league now and he's gonna get decent money from someone. I actually would try and extend him now for a year as it probably makes sense to him to avoid free agency this year with how much pitching is out there and having a down year and still an injury risk. Offer him like 8 mil with a no or limited trade clause if he wants that.

[Miamarlin21]

Personally, I want the Marlins to go with Jose, Alvarez, FA, Cosart and have Urena, Nicolino and Flores battle it out for the fifth spot next year. Sadly, Cueto, Price, Greinke and Zimmermann are very unlikely, but I would be fine with Kazmir, Samardzija, Leake, Kennedy, Gallardo or Anderson as an option to sign.

[emkayseven]

seeing some of these proposed rotations full of #5s makes me want to go #2