Ugh . . . Pending Fire Sale Before July 31

[Miamarlin21]

Wayne Rosenthal made it sound like Alvarez won't start his off-season program until January or February. Even though no one has said it, it looks like he might miss the beginning of the season.

[thatnewguy]

Well Rosenthal can fill up that time by working on Capps' inevitable rehab.

[lou]

It really wouldn't be a big deal if Alvarez is back in June.

If they get 33 out of Fernandez, 32 out of a FA SP (Kazmir/Samardzija type), 28 out of Cosart (agree or disagree, they are going to throw him and I bet he is a fine 4/5 if nothing more), let's say Phelps throws 20 starts as Alvarez replacement and a few spots, and Alvarez 17, that's 130 starts.

I think the rub is pretty much if you think they can get by with Nicolino/Urena/Conley/Hand for the other 32, or if they should just get another veteran SP to cover those innings. I think August and September will be a nice showcase for those 4 to see if they can get by with them next year, so it's a bit premature to think if they must get 2 veteran SP (or I guess keep Koehler, which I think is the worst idea of all of this. Sell high now).

I mean, yes ideally sign two SP, Napoli, Venable, and a veteran LOOGY and push payroll to $100+ million, but they may be able to do it cheaper if those young pitchers show up the rest of the year. At least we have that to watch which could be fun. They could really use one to emerge as a good 4th SP moving forward.

[Mainge]

I don't see how in the world that's not a big deal.

[Jay]

I have no problem expecting him back by June. I have a problem when you're counting on him in for the postseason and that's what you're doing Lou. The team doesn't make the playoffs with Jose, Kazmir type, and the others as the rotation unless Alvarez comes back in June and is in 2014 form. The playoff appearance is still iffy in that situation.

[Swifty]

If they don't have Alvarez until the break, they need to add two starters in the offseason, not just one.

The Marlins have a legitimate #1 (Jose) a kind of okay #3 (Alvarez) and a bunch of NL 4/5's in Conley, Urena, et al. You can't really be built around pitching and defense if that's the state of the pitching. They're not going to spend enough on the offense to shift that philosophy, so Alvarez missing the first half is an enormous deal to 2016's status, even if Alvarez himself is only kind of better than middle of the road.

[lou]

I don't see how in the world that's not a big deal.

Because losing 15 starts from the downgrade from Alvarez to someone like Urena, is not making or breaking the season with everything else they got going on. It's probably not a win difference.

2 new starters is ideal, but its all about the paper.

Kazmir, Samardzija, Napoli (if they are going for it, get the tried and true lefty masher coming off a down year), and Venable would cost probably $50 million combined for the 4 of them. Granted, payroll is under $110 still at that point (16-18th overall in MLB range) which shouldn't be a big ask for the front office to do, but I feel that's asking Loria to do a lot.

[Mainge]

That literally makes no sense. He's our second best starting pitcher by a wide margin. Him being healthy allows for much more margin for error with the rest of shit going on with the team.

I can't believe that I'm reading that losing Henderson Alvarez isn't a big deal. I'd argue that it's almost insurmountable. Everything has to go right for this team to have a chance.

[lou]

I have no problem expecting him back by June. I have a problem when you're counting on him in for the postseason and that's what you're doing Lou. The team doesn't make the playoffs with Jose, Kazmir type, and the others as the rotation unless Alvarez comes back in June and is in 2014 form. The playoff appearance is still iffy in that situation.

I think they are going to live and die with the bats. They need to get 12+ WAR out of the outfield, and another 12 out of the infield. If the bats play like this year, they go nowhere despite whatever pitching. Live and die with Stanton and two other guys putting forth monster years, and no other embarrassments like 2013-2014 Hech and Morse 2015.

The pitching pushes them over the top. Not saying it is a luxury, but if they just add Kazmir/Samardzija type, it's going to be a pretty OK. Throwing in Fernandez for a full season, Cosart, and Alvarez for only half a season, we're literally talking 90+ upgraded starts from the stuff they've been throwing this year, and I'll bank on Nicolino/Urena/Conley being OK if it has to come to that. Ideally you want another veteran SP there, but like I said, let's see what they do August and September and maybe they can avoid that.

They are in pretty good shape despite the doom and gloom. Just stay healthy, and cross fingers one of the young pitchers emerges. Hope Loria spends at least $30 to get 3-4 real veterans which is all they need.

[Mainge]

I think they are going to live and die with the bats. They need to get 12+ WAR out of the outfield, and another 12 out of the infield. If the bats play like this year, they go nowhere despite whatever pitching. Live and die with Stanton and two other guys putting forth monster years, and no other embarrassments like 2013-2014 Hech and Morse 2015.

The pitching pushes them over the top. Not saying it is a luxury, but if they just add Kazmir/Samardzija type, it's going to be a pretty OK. Throwing in Fernandez for a full season, Cosart, and Alvarez for only half a season, we're literally talking 90+ upgraded starts from the stuff they've been throwing this year, and I'll bank on Nicolino/Urena/Conley being OK if it has to come to that. Ideally you want another veteran SP there, but like I said, let's see what they do August and September and maybe they can avoid that.

They are in pretty good shape despite the doom and gloom. Just stay healthy, and cross fingers one of the young pitchers emerges. Hope Loria spends at least $30 to get 3-4 real veterans which is all they need.

I swear to god I've been reading this post for almost 10 years now. No offense, bud.

[lou]

That literally makes no sense. He's our second best starting pitcher by a wide margin. Him being healthy allows for much more margin for error with the rest of shit going on with the team.

I can't believe that I'm reading that losing Henderson Alvarez isn't a big deal. I'd argue that it's almost insurmountable. Everything has to go right for this team to have a chance.

Well everything would have to go right. They aren't contending if Realmuto doesn't keep improving, Hech and Gordon don't match this year, Yelich, Ozuna, and Cosart don't match 2014, etc. I mean, they aren't going to conjure up across the board depth here to account for a margin of error. They have to bank on upside in youth.

If Alvarez is out half the year, and the alternative is 15 starts of Urena instead, that's not making of breaking the season. Just one of those above guys above tanking, kills the year as there is no help coming, and no veteran cast off they will sign could realistically come in and match their expected production. Nothing in the farm to realistically trade for a good player, unlike the Astros this year. We can't say that about the SP though. They have a bunch of potential 4/5 guys, and can probably make up the innings in a non-embarrassing way. Maybe not spectacular, but Urena, Conley, and Nicolino have around a dozen starts this year at a combined low 4 era, and that's pretty OK if that is your 5th SP and injury replacements. You'd imagine they improve and adjust to MLB hitters.

[Swifty]

I swear to god I've been reading this post for almost 10 years now. No offense, bud.

Definitely 2008 forward.

The team has to decide its identity and invest heavily. It's tried too hard to tip-toe around a flawed roster and never make the move(s) necessary to go all in. They had the "everything break right" scenario in 2009 and then did nothing at the deadline despite having Nunez closing games. That's when it all went off the rails. Can't trust these guys to ever figure it the fuck out when the best case scenario was staring at them and all they did was promote Gaby fucking Sanchez...oh, and Nick Johnson.

[Todd]

I fully expect the starting rotation opening day to be made up of guys currently in the organization.

Fernandez/Koehler/Cosart/Nicolino/Urena most likely.

[emkayseven]

0% chance that happens.

They're going to sign or trade for someone, but it's going to be someone who sucks.

[lou]

W

Definitely 2008 forward.

The team has to decide its identity and invest heavily. It's tried too hard to tip-toe around a flawed roster and never make the move(s) necessary to go all in. They had the "everything break right" scenario in 2009 and then did nothing at the deadline despite having Nunez closing games. That's when it all went off the rails. Can't trust these guys to ever figure it the fuck out when the best case scenario was staring at them and all they did was promote Gaby fucking Sanchez...oh, and Nick Johnson.

Yea. It's just frustrating that they are legitimately close on paper right now. I agree completely, it's time to invest heavily. There are 3 years of Fernandez left. That is the window pretty much unless they are somehow able to resign him.

Also, I like to think Loria will want to make the all star game a spectacle. Having a good 2016 will help.

I can see the 1 year deal with Napoli for the hometown thing, and signing some veteran SP. Hopefully a good one. I really think Kazmir is perfect for this team. But I really hope it's not the same narrative as this offseason where they clearly need 1 more SP on paper and do nothing. We'll see.