Dan Haren Boosts Trade Value In Marlins 7-2 Win

[Nick]

IF Dee continues to hit well enough (ops+ over 100 is all you gotta ask for with everything else) and defend like this, his base running will very likely get better based off history, and you're looking at a ~4 WAR player.

If Heaney is a around league average era guy (he is considered a three, yah?), you're looking at 2.5 WAR. To be a 4 WAR SP, you're looking at needing an era of around 3/era plus of 115.

Pretty good trade atm. I'm willing to eat crow if Dee continues (assuming strait Dee for Heaney), but I do still hate the depth we gave up to get Haren. Those guys are probably nothing but bench/back up players but that's still an important role in a long season.

I really expected Bonifacio 2.0 (who tailed off hard after his one good season). Very happy that's not the case

Didn't we get Rojas in that deal? I'm thinking Rojas for Kike's probably a wash. As you've said I'm liking Dee for Heaney at this point, and then you have Dan Haren for Austin Barnes and Chris Hatcher, which I think seems fair, even if we only get the one year out of Haren.

[Bobbob1313]

the biggest thing for Dee is the improvement in contact/K%. That's where he has differentiated himself from the Bonifacio comparison

[HUGG]

Kike hit .169/.219/.254 in AAA but got called up anyway and is 4/15 with 2 doubles and 5k so far

Barnes is hitting .269/.395/.388 in AAA so far

Heaney threw 7 innings of 2 hit shutout ball with 8k in his season debut and since then has thrown 23.1 innings in 6 starts, allowing 37 hits, 14 er and striking out 19.

BAA of .310. But .359babip, so bad luck there too.

[nny]

I forgot about Rojas. Good point on that.

[Nick]

Hatcher with a 7.20 ERA in 10 innings for LA.

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Does have a good K/BB ratio 15/3.

[Namaste]

.5 GAME OUT OF 2nd WILD CARD

[AdamRavs]

Who's going down today for Yelich? I hope the jerk guys fav person!

[nny]

I don't particularly care about total lines atm when it comes to a trade like this (outside of Haren, in which case please keep getting good results regardless of peripherals). This is a trade we'll know of it was good when you can look at 6 years worth of it.

It's more about how they're getting their lines. Dee's line is amazing but it's his contact rates and defense that are more-so the encouraging thing from a long term standpoint.

Hatcher, Heaney, and Barnes are still getting to their lines in encouraging ways. Rojas a little less so since it's very BABIP filled, but you're also looking at better K rates so should be better contact.

Kike and his k rates are really only thing that makes you go whoa.

[Jay]

So if the trade breaks down Heaney for Dee, Haren for Barnes and Hatcher, and Kike for Rojas.
Kike for Rojas is probably a win.
Heaney for Dee can't be judged for at least a few years.
Haren for Barnes and Hatcher is probably a loss unless they ditch Haren with money for a younger version of Hatcher and/or a better player than Barnes or they get players equal to Barnes and Hatcher and keep the money. (The FO probably thinks they're geniuses for getting Haren and his salary paid right now and will keep him).

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Also if you look at Hatchers ERA, yeah it looks like he should be demoted but the guy has an FIP of 1.66. His BABIP isn't going to stick at .423 and his LOB % isn't going to be 37.5% at the end of the year. Also he's posting 13.5 K/9 right now with a 2.70 BB/9; that walk rate is probably maintainable, K-rate probably isn't after looking at pitch velocity and movement.

[dim]

Gordon's defense has been really surprisingly good. I remember all the reports were that he was just an average 2nd baseman, but he's looked outstanding at the position so far. Obviously we'd all love to have Dee get more walks and the BA isn't sustainable, but I love having him and Prado at the top of the lineup when just two years ago we started off games with Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco. I really love this lineup and the potential of it to be really good.

And whoever said it before, you're right in that Koehler has to be the one to go for Alvarez. I'm still really worried about Latos long term. If he keeps pitching like he has, with absolutely nothing behind his pitches, I wouldn't be shocked to see Latos go on the DL and Koehler takes the rotation spot back at some point. It seems obvious now that the starting rotation is the biggest thing to worry about over the course of the season, as Latos/Phelps/Koehler/Haren/Cosart just stinks of average to below average. It would be a hell of a lot more pretty with Fernandez and Alvarez at the top, but for the time being we're surviving with a lot of guys who are #4/5 starters at best.

If this team is contending going into the break (and this is all really thinking ahead and is a while away), they NEED to trade for a top starting pitcher. I think we need another good SP if we want to actually stand a shot in a playoff series. That's for a later time though and the expectation from the start of the season has always been to just get by around or just above .500 until Jose gets back. For now the plan hasn't changed.

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As for the Dodgers trade, I really don't think Heaney is as good as he was once advertised. He's still only 23 so there's a lot of time, but when he made that major league debut he just doesn't seem like the same pitcher as he was before. Kinda like the pitcher's version of Logan Morrison. I'm with everyone else in saying the peak potential of Heaney has fallen off from being a #2 to now being a #3 at best. When you account for the fact that our starting second baseman situation without Gordon would've been Solano and a stuck in the minors Derek Dietrich, and I feel good saying that it feels like we're winners in that trade, even with the major regression coming. I love Barnes (as everybody who followed the minor league threads knows), but he's similar to Mark Canha in the fact that he's likely nothing more than a utility guy/really good bench bat at the major league level. Marlins waited a bit too long on his development. Hatcher turned himself into a good reliever with us but that was just a player who we were waiting to fall apart at any time.

Miguel Rojas has become a fun surprise in the trade. He was really a plus plus plus for his defense, and NOBODY expected him to start the season actually hitting well in AAA. Kike had no spot on our team and was kind of a player we traded high on anyway, so I wasn't sad at all to see him go.

I think we all know the kind of player Dee is. I really feel the trade boils down to whether or not Heaney gets himself back on track. I used to feel great about his future potential, but there's just something off with him now. I was worried that we traded low on Heaney, but it's starting to feel more and more like we traded Heaney before his value started to plummet. I'm willing to wait and see how both Dee and Heaney's careers shape up over the next three years, but I'm willing to call it a win simply because we needed that production from Gordon this year. This team would be in a pretty incredible hole right now without him.

[Jay]

Not saying that the starting rotation doesn't need to be improved but they have kept the team competitive thus far. They do happen to be performing better than they actually are.
Out of all starters Latos has the highest K rate and the only one who should be expected to perform better from here on out. I didn't see it but his line and from his last start looks promising