Dan Haren Boosts Trade Value In Marlins 7-2 Win

[HUGG]

me, reading each of bobbob's posts in this thread:

[Jay]

You don't strive to be league average. The other things are legit which is why I didn't reply specifically to them and admitted he is a better player than last year.

[HUGG]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dee-g...g-full-ichiro/

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So, moving away from the Dee topic...

there were no walks drawn in this game, by either team. I wonder how often that happens?

[Jay]

The bullpen clearly didn't get much action this game. Im always shocked when I see the walk per 9. It seems like it should be higher than 3.36.

I don't think it'd be that rare in the history of baseball but interesting.

[HUGG]

I'm sure it probably happens a few times a season.

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5 most recent times it's happened involving us:

May 7, 2015 vs. Giants
September 18, 2014 vs. Mets
April 22, 2014 vs. Braves
April 8, 2011 vs. Astros
August 7, 2010 vs. Cardinals

[Nick]

jay576 needs an avatar and I think I have a perfect one in mind.

lead_large.jpg

[BigGameFish]

Are you seriously hating on Dee Gordon? He's been nothing but near perfect for over a month now. Saying "he can't sustain this, he's going to regress" is the most obvious and easy position I've ever seen anyone take on this board in 8 years. C'mon man! Everyone knows that. And clearly all his peripheral stats are up, so if you think you somehow know better than anyone here how he will look in 3 months, you need a dose of humility serum.

[lou]

If the guy can hit .290/.330/.370+, with above average defense and the base running, he's going to be a 3.5+ WAR player and they have him for 3 more years. That seems kind of reasonable. The only thing I would be worried about is if they get stupid and give him an Elvis Andrus contract (8/$120... not a typo).

This is super fun, relatively unexpected, and a fantastic development if he is going to be a 4th really positive offensive player to add to the outfielders. We'll see how the season goes. He tailed off dramatically last year as someone already stated.

[Bobbob1313]

You don't strive to be league average. The other things are legit which is why I didn't reply specifically to them and admitted he is a better player than last year.

What's the saying?

"Don't let 'perfect' be the enemy of 'good.'"

With his baserunning abilities, a .340 OBP would be plenty fine for the leadoff spot in this era of diminished offense.

This "He's gonna hit .270" tip you're on is silly, I think.

[lou]

What's the saying?

"Don't let 'perfect' be the enemy of 'good.'"

With his baserunning abilities, a .340 OBP would be plenty fine for the leadoff spot in this era of diminished offense.

This "He's gonna hit .270" tip you're on is silly, I think.

.340 would be great.

[HUGG]

ZiPS projects him to hit .303/.345/.381 the rest of the season, which would put his final line at .331/.370/.415 and ~4.5 WAR

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Current fWAR plus ZiPS projected for rest of season:

Stanton 1.0 + 4.5 = 5.5
Gordon 2.2 + 2.3 = 4.5
Prado 0.7 + 2.2 = 2.9
Yelich -0.2 + 2.7 = 2.5
Ozuna 0.4 + 1.8 = 2.2
Hech 1.0 + 1.0 = 2.0
Realmuto 0.0 + 1.0 = 1.0
Morse -0.6 + 0.1 = -0.5

Latos 0.2 + 1.9 = 2.1
Phelps 0.6 + 1.1 = 1.7
Alvarez 0.1 + 1.2 = 1.3
Haren 0.1 + 1.1 = 1.2
Cosart 0.3 + 0.9 = 1.2
Koehler -0.2 + 0.5 = 0.3

[Nick]

That would be an amazing season for Gordon.

Wow, they really like Phelps. Koehler's got to get the bump when Alvarez comes back.

[Namaste]

He's not the type of player that excites me.

You seem like a very nice guy and in the big picture you're relatively up to speed when it comes to baseball knowledge.


But like I've been implying for the last couple of weeks, I think you may be a crazy person.

Unless you're just trolling when you suggest we should trade him.

[Jay]

It's a lot of a personal bias against his type of player. If he hits .300 the rest of the way great but if he finishes with a .300 ba that means he hit .270 from here on out and basically all of his value came from april which isn't good when we need the same if not more production in September

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also will he be affordable for the next 3 years while maintaining the ability to add a significant piece. currently the team looks pretty set for next year but the Braves and Mets will likely continue to improve and are playing better than expected thus far. I don't think you have the same expectations as coming into this season where you think picking up 45+ wins comes off of beating up the Braves Phil and mets.

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And can a mod or administrative please change my account name to simply to jay

[nny]

IF Dee continues to hit well enough (ops+ over 100 is all you gotta ask for with everything else) and defend like this, his base running will very likely get better based off history, and you're looking at a ~4 WAR player.

If Heaney is a around league average era guy (he is considered a three, yah?), you're looking at 2.5 WAR. To be a 4 WAR SP, you're looking at needing an era of around 3/era plus of 115.

Pretty good trade atm. I'm willing to eat crow if Dee continues (assuming strait Dee for Heaney), but I do still hate the depth we gave up to get Haren. Those guys are probably nothing but bench/back up players but that's still an important role in a long season.

I really expected Bonifacio 2.0 (who tailed off hard after his one good season). Very happy that's not the case