Dee Gordon 2B

[emkayseven]

hitless last night, trade him while he still has value

maybe we could package him and Haren together for an Andrew Heaney type

[Namaste]

I can't believe we throw Dee Gordon out there every night when we have Donovan Solano just rotting on the bench.

This fucking team, man.

[marlinsfan24]

I can't believe we throw Dee Gordon out there every night when we have Donovan Solano just rotting on the bench.

This fucking team, man.

Wait till Don Kelly comes back, how do you justify benching him?

[thatnewguy]

Why the fuck haven't they called Brignac up?

[HUGG]

They're ignorant jerk guys.

[Jay]

Dee has an amazing triple slash of .258 / .300 / .318 since May 10th with a .309 BABIP. Say he plays with that average the rest of the year and his BB, HBP and SF rates are all the same as they are now and assume he gets 5 PAs a game for 100 more games, he would finish the season with a lovely .291 BA and .327 OBP.
Now even I don't think Dee is going to hit under .260 for the rest of the season so let's say he hits .280 the rest of the way, he'll finish with a .306 BA and a .342 OBP which looks alright to good in the lead off spot. It's better than league average .326 OBP last year and current .323 OBP this year out of the 1st spot. But we'd be looking at below average performance from the lead off spot for essentially all but the first month of the season. He really needs to hit .290 to have a league average lead off OBP throughout the entire season with the exception of the 70PA slump he's had so far in may.
And that .280 BA the rest of the way isn't far off from projections Zips has .300, Steamer .269, and Depth Charts .285.

[Bobbob1313]

But we'd be looking at below average performance from the lead off spot for essentially all but the first month of the season.

Assuming that OBP is the only thing that matters.

The difference between a .340 OBP and a .322 OBP over 500 plate appearances is nine outs. It's really easy to overstate things at that level, and I think that's what you're doing.

Dude is good. He brings a lot to the table, and also is probably just a league-average OBP guy in the leadoff spot. He's fine.

[Jay]

You also have to adjust that for the times he gets caught stealing which is another 15 outs and then we're looking closer to a .310 OBP. He may bring a lot to the table but he's below average when it comes to getting and staying on base in the lead off spot. To maximize value on the team, he shouldn't be leading off.

[Nick]

How do you take caught stealing into consideration and not take the steals into account? I'm not the biggest proponent of the stolen base, but you can't just ignore it to try and prove your point.

[Jay]

How do you take caught stealing into consideration and not take the steals into account? I'm not the biggest proponent of the stolen base, but you can't just ignore it to try and prove your point.

I'm not ignoring it but steals can't be used to adjust obp, they'd cause his slugging to be increased. A lead off hitter can be a one-dimensional player if that dimension is OBP.

[emkayseven]

Dee has an amazing triple slash of .258 / .300 / .318 since May 10th with a .309 BABIP. Say he plays with that average the rest of the year and his BB, HBP and SF rates are all the same as they are now and assume he gets 5 PAs a game for 100 more games, he would finish the season with a lovely .291 BA and .327 OBP.
Now even I don't think Dee is going to hit under .260 for the rest of the season so let's say he hits .280 the rest of the way, he'll finish with a .306 BA and a .342 OBP which looks alright to good in the lead off spot. It's better than league average .326 OBP last year and current .323 OBP this year out of the 1st spot. But we'd be looking at below average performance from the lead off spot for essentially all but the first month of the season. He really needs to hit .290 to have a league average lead off OBP throughout the entire season with the exception of the 70PA slump he's had so far in may.
And that .280 BA the rest of the way isn't far off from projections Zips has .300, Steamer .269, and Depth Charts .285.

Should have traded him when we had the chance

[Jay]

Should have traded him when we had the chance

Still have the chance. I'm more advocating him hitting lower in the order than trading him. But that's saying Yelich's future production is a .360 OBP.

[Bobbob1313]

How low in the lineup? 2nd?

Average No. 1 hitter last season had 748 plate appearances. So, a .360 OBP Yelich would get on base 269 times; a .320 OBP Dee would get on base 239 times. That's a big gap!

Average No. 2 hitter last season had 729 plate appearances. So, a .320 OBP Dee would get on base 233 times; a .360 OBP Yelich would get on base 262 times.

Yelich No. 1/Gordon No. 2 would lead to one fewer out made over the course of a season than Dee No. 1/Yelich No. 2.

Not really any impact there, assuming Yelich rights the ship and gets back to the top of the order. Maybe Yelich hitting 2nd gets a handful fewer plate appearances with Gordon No. 1 than Gordon would with Yelich No. 1, but we're not looking at much of a difference at all there. It's a handful of outs over the course of a full season.

So, to really make an impact, it would have to be Yelich No. 1, [Marlin X with a higher OBP than Dee] No. 2, Dee further down the order. How far down? I know you've said you don't like Ozuna hitting 2nd, so let's take him off the list. I think Hechavarria is rightly not a candidate. Neither is Realmuto. Stanton isn't moving to the No. 2 spot.

So that leaves 1B (Bour/Morse) and Prado. Prado of the .319 OBP since the start of 2014, and -11.2 BR runs added since start of 2013.

So, Bour/Morse, I guess? One of the slowest baserunners in baseball and the only non-stanton power threat in the lineup.

Who would you have them move Dee Gordon down in the lineup for?

- - - - - - - - - -

Batting order is one of those things fans gnash their teeth endlessly about that just really doesn't make much of a difference. The difference between a 100-percent optimized lineup and the usual one most major-league teams use (i.e., the kind that features Dee Gordon at the top and the pitcher in the No. 9 spot), is extremely slim.

[Jay]

First, can you provide some source that actually studied how line up order makes no difference.
You're talking about power threat in the lineup of Bour but not Ozuna which makes no sense.
And you're talking about speed of Bour but why is speed necessary at the top of the lineup? It's clearly not when you've got you're best hitters and most likely the ones that hit for power coming up.

If we expect Bour to be the starter against right handers indefinitely, I'd place him number 2 and Yelich number 1 as I think they over the best on base potential and Dee's asset of speed will create more runs in the bottom of the lineup than the top.

Ozuna's projected OBP isn't .340 and having him hit 2nd long term doesn't make sense because of that. Bour on the other hand has a much higher potential to be that .340+ OBP guy and considering 2015 is a lost cause we should experiment with it.

Ideal lineup based on future value versus righties.
Yelich
Bour
Stanton
Ozuna
Prado
Dee
Realmuto
Hech
pitcher

[Erick]

First, can you provide some source that actually studied how line up order makes no difference.
You're talking about power threat in the lineup of Bour but not Ozuna which makes no sense.
And you're talking about speed of Bour but why is speed necessary at the top of the lineup? It's clearly not when you've got you're best hitters and most likely the ones that hit for power coming up.

If we expect Bour to be the starter against right handers indefinitely, I'd place him number 2 and Yelich number 1 as I think they over the best on base potential and Dee's asset of speed will create more runs in the bottom of the lineup than the top.

Ozuna's projected OBP isn't .340 and having him hit 2nd long term doesn't make sense because of that. Bour on the other hand has a much higher potential to be that .340+ OBP guy and considering 2015 is a lost cause we should experiment with it.

Ideal lineup based on future value versus righties.
Yelich
Bour
Stanton
Ozuna
Prado
Dee
Realmuto
Hech
pitcher

Based on this, shouldn't Stanton hit 1st? He's gonna get on base more than anyone on the team.