Jorge Cantu

[m26555]

Maybe the sabermetric guys can make this a good discussion (looking at you, nny), but would I be way off the mark if I say that he has improved a pretty solid amount as a hitter this season? His OBP currently sits at .342, and while that is certainly nothing to write home about, it looks a lot better than the .327 OBP he compiled last season. He has drawn 42 walks over 503 at-bats this season while finishing with only 40 over 628 in 2008.

Obviously, his power numbers are not where you would want them to be, but could that just be the case of a "fluke?" In the only two seasons where he actually played all year-long, he hit 28 and 29 home runs. It looks like he won't finish with any more than 20 (and that's being generous) this season, but he is just showing solid improvement everywhere else. His strikeout rate has decreased from 17.7% over 628 AB in '08 to 12.9% over 503 AB this season, and I think this can certainly be attributed to a drastic improvement in plate discipline.

I mean, I understand you cannot just remove two months from a player's season when you are judging his performance, but if you take away his dreadful May and August, look at these numbers:

April: .365/.444/.1222
June: .324/.349/.800
July: .296/.387/.844
September (over 39 AB): .359/.405/.918

For the most part, those numbers look very good.

Cantu put up a solid .808 OPS last season. This year, due to his significant drop in power, it sits at a pretty mediocre .777. But, if the power comes back in 2010 (and I fully expect it to), we're gonna have one heck of a hitter in the middle of our order.

Thoughts?

[geemoney]

Obviously, his power numbers are not where you would want them to be, but could that just be the case of a "fluke?"

Didn't he have a hand issue or something that could be blamed for the power outage this year?

[lou]

I posted something like this, not as in depth, somewhere a few days ago. The BB/K has improved pretty dramatically. The doubles are the same. I'm not sure where the extra 10 HR are, but I agree with you I think this may be evidence a peak year is coming. He just needs to hit RHP a little bit more as his power total against them have dropped this year.

[Ramp]

I don't want him back. He does nothing for me as a 1B or 3B. The production is barely average.

[nny]

Cantu's been all over the place his entire career to the point where it's almost impossible to say where he's going to go next. The only thing I can say really is to default to the best sample size, that being his career numbers. Last year was basically his career numbers except in power, which was up last year, and considering his age, that isn't a surprise.

I mean, he used to be a GB hitter, now he's a FB hitter. He went from striking out to an above average rate to not striking out to striking out at an above average rate to striking out to an average rate to not striking out again this year. The smallest difference in ISO from one year to the next is 49 points. I mean, he went from being a power hitter one year, to average power the next, to a slap hitter the next, to a power hitter, now back to average power.

The only thing you know you can pencil him in for is a .300 BABIP

[wanks1212]

I don't want him back. He does nothing for me as a 1B or 3B. The production is barely average.

I tend to agree with this. Strictly from a cost persepctive and assuming Cantu's making roughly 5.5-6 mil in arby himself, I'd rather see Hermida + Lindstrom (or Hermida + cheap FA 3B for roughly 1.5-1.75 mil) return than Cantu.

[lou]

I tend to agree with this. Strictly from a cost persepctive and assuming Cantu's making roughly 5.5-6 mil in arby himself, I'd rather see Hermida + Lindstrom (or Hermida + cheap FA 3B for roughly 1.5-1.75 mil) return than Cantu.

Well it would be Hermida ($3.5) + Lindstrom ($1.6) + Pinto ($.85)

[wanks1212]

If those are the figures, then Hermida + Lindstrom + vet lefty bench bat (i.e. Gload type, but not Gload). Or even Hermida + $2.5 mil FA 3B.

I guess the point is that at 6 mil, Cantu's really expendable and not worth bringing back.

[Sashimi]

He's solid enough, but ideally you'd like to get more production (read: OPS) from your cleanup hitter. Nny makes a good point that Cantu is difficult to project because his performance has been somewhat erratic, even just within this season (hard to say whether it's all because of the hand because he continued to do well right after he got hit on the hand). As a result, there a lot more variance, and hence risk, is his projections...probably not a good risk for the Marlins to take given the money he'll command.

[Fish and Chips]

is it possible to trade cantu, to make more room for a NJ contract?

if the FO is willing to pay 6mil for cantu, then why not trade cantu and use the 6million you saved for a NJ contract (1yr 5mil/2yr 10mil) and possible a veteran sp

[Swifty]

Money doesn't get reinvested on this team.

We don't trade Cantu to "free up" $6 mil to use elsewhere, he's gone, that money's going into a pocket (and not a player's pocket).

[Metes]

I believe I saw Mr. Loria recently at the player's ball, so I'm gonna have to disagree with you there, Swift.

[Bobbob1313]

Money doesn't get reinvested on this team.

We don't trade Cantu to "free up" $6 mil to use elsewhere, he's gone, that money's going into a pocket (and not a player's pocket).

The Marlins opening day payroll was 21.8 million last year. This year it was 34.4 million.

But, you know. Good point. The money we were supposed to pay to Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs ended up (GASP!) going back into the team and then some.

But again, good point.

[Flum]

The Marlins opening day payroll was 21.8 million last year. This year it was 34.4 million.

But, you know. Good point. The money we were supposed to pay to Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs ended up (GASP!) going back into the team and then some.

But again, good point.

Bob, I realize that you enjoy needling Swift, but when you start using a 34.4 million dollar payroll as a justification for anything positive, there's a problem.

[lou]

I really can't figure out why getting rid of $6-8 million dollar, .775-.825 OPS bats, with below average defense, is that big of a deal. Even if we had a ton of money. Really, not that big of a deal to the bottomline of production when there are decent and projectable replacements in the system.

And when the Marlins sign JJ to a 4-5 year contract this offseason, pay Nolasco and at least two of Johnson/Ross/Hermida/Uggla/Cantu upwards of $4+ million, and keep most of the Paulino/Pinto/Lindstrom/Nunez/Anibal group of minor arb cases, I would call that reinvesting into the team.



That is me dancing through the gumdrop homer forest where it's always sunny. I can't wait to laugh at you tards when the team is just as good or better next year despite the pending 3-5 major starting player defections. Because you know why? Pitching progression.