Will Christian Yelich Hit for Power?

[Erick]

The LF experiment probably didn't help Morrison's development either.

I don't think the change in approach made Morrison much worse. I felt like, overall, he was just as productive the year after. It was probably what his true talent level was. Analyzing his 2010 #'s compared to 2011 when he hit for more power, the drop in average and .OBP probably had something to do with the fact that he was bound to regress. His #'s against LHP in 2010 didn't seem sustainable at the time, and they ultimately weren't. Most of the regression was just him reverting to his true talent level against LHP.

Morrison's greater issue has been trying to stay healthy. Making him play LF, especially a spacious LF in Marlins Park, probably didn't help the cause.

[BigGameFish]

I am genuinely surprised to see Hermida put up that season in a Marlins uni. That is comparable to Yelich, I suppose. Still though, can you really link his demise to the Marlins asking for more power? I think that's a stretch. A lot of reasons can cause a guy to flop (see: Jeff Allison).

[dim]

I love Yelich's approach at the plate. He's got such a smooth swing (I'll say the smoothest swing on the team), and he's got definite gaps power. Like everybody else here, I don't want him sacrificing that type of approach to get 25+ home runs a year. I'll take 15 homers but with a solid number of singles/doubles/triples added on.

I remember the day that Yelich was drafted that the main comparison given to him was John Olerud. Obviously comparisons change from the time a player is 18 years old to now, and that was back when Yelich was projected to be a 1st baseman, but I actually really like the Olerud comparison. If Yelich can become a consistent mid .800 OPS hitter for the rest of his career just like Olerud was, and to do that at an outfield position, he'll be a cornerstone piece of this franchise.

The problem with the main media is they always try to determine power simply by home runs. There are really great power hitters with really low home run statistics, but you'll never hear about that and see it praised publicly.
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And while this thread isn't really the discussion for this, and we've had this discussion a million times, there really isn't any doubt that Morrison could've been a really good player and there were a lot of things that ruined his career. Throwing him in left field really pushed the injuries he had. The hitting coaches we had always pushed Morrison to go for a more power/home run oriented approach when what made him so successful in the minors was his GREAT plate discipline, which suddenly disappeared after his rookie season. I was always on Hermida's case, but that was more because I felt he had a lot of talent but wasn't really pushing himself to get to that next level. He had a really good swing that needed a few minor tweaks, but it never seemed like it got fixed (leading to a lot of pop up outs). There was laziness in his defense, and he just never duplicated that aberration of a 2007 season that everybody seemed to hang onto for years to defend Hermida as a franchise caliber player. It's been a while since I've had the Hermida debates, as he was one of my least favorite Marlins ever, but I will admit the fact that Hermida had the ability to be at least a 10-15 year veteran player in the league. He just seemed content to be mediocre, and it's a big reason why he was out of the league by 2012.

Yelich obviously isn't Hermida, and he's definitely isn't LoMo. The big addition to Yelich's game is his defense, which nobody really expected to be anything more than below average from reports in his minor league time (and the fact he was a high school 1st baseman). After Stanton and Fernandez (and I'd argue Alvarez if he somehow repeats last season), Yelich is the kind of franchise guy that needs to be in Miami for a long time.

[Bobbob1313]

I remember the day that Yelich was drafted that the main comparison given to him was John Olerud. Obviously comparisons change from the time a player is 18 years old to now, and that was back when Yelich was projected to be a 1st baseman, but I actually really like the Olerud comparison. If Yelich can become a consistent mid .800 OPS hitter for the rest of his career just like Olerud was, and to do that at an outfield position, he'll be a cornerstone piece of this franchise.

The problem with the main media is they always try to determine power simply by home runs. There are really great power hitters with really low home run statistics, but you'll never hear about that and see it praised publicly.

I mean, Yelich had a .119 ISO last season, and was 102nd out of 146 qualified hitters last season. Olerud topped that in 13 of his 15 full seasons and he ranked 154th in ISO for all players with at least 3,000 plate appearances from 1989 to 2005.

Yelich isn't a power hitter, and probably won't ever have much more than average power. It's not about the media being obsessed with home runs. It's about his skill set.

And him not being a power hitter is totally okay, because he does so much else well. We really don't need to overstate his power for him to be good.

[BigGameFish]

Also as long as we have Stanton and Ozuna (and whoever plays first assuming power there), Marlins don't really need Yelich to hit home runs. They need him to get on base in front of those guys who do swing for the fences.

[thatnewguy]

Also as long as we have Stanton and Ozuna (and whoever plays first assuming power there), Marlins don't really need Yelich to hit home runs. They need him to get on base in front of those guys who do swing for the fences.

I agree with this, especially if Yelich is hitting the 2nd spot in the line-up. It seems to be that the majority of his value comes from--and probably will always come from--how good of a pure hitter he is rather than any one specific thing he does. He does everything pretty much at an above-average level and does not have any glaring weaknesses as a hitter. Add that to the tremendous approach, baseball IQ, speed, defense, and plate discipline, he doesn't really need the 25-HR power for his game to be solid. Really, Olerud might be the floor.

But it brings up an interesting question--would you rather he turn into Tony Gwynn or Ken Griffey Jr.?

[Nick]

I wouldn't say Olerud is the floor, John Olerud was a very good hitter for well over a decade. Yelich does have the fact that he's a plus-oufielder over Olerud, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves.

[Bobbob1313]

I feel like the floor is Eric Hosmer with speed and outfield defense, which is awesome. It's not John Olerud, but it's awesome.

The good news is, the ceiling might be Jeter.
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In year 2, Jeter struck out 3% less often than league average and walked 10% more often, and his ISO was 75.5% the league average.

Yelich struck out 7% more often than the league average and walked 42% more often, and his ISO was 88.1% of the league average.

So, that's cool.

[nny]

Will Christian Yelich Hit for Power?

I feel like people might end up disappointed with him with all this talk of comps.

His comps are more-so someone like Carl Crawford. Crawford gave a bit more on the bases and in the field, but Yelich should be a bit more better hitter. But not by much on all accounts.

We're talking of a slightly above average hitter who adds value other places. A 100 OPS+ from LoMo or Hermida is a bad player. From Yelich, that's an above average starter.

He's likely not going to be an .850+ OPS guy year in and year out. Jeter is, like, the best case comp and he has a career ops+ of 119. .850 last year is a 140 OPS+

Don't be disappointed in him when he's just .775-.815. Cuz shit that's valuable from a player like him.

[lou]

He's going to be pretty awesome at anything over .750 OPS if the defense doesn't disappear, like Nick Markakis.

[emkayseven]

yeah I take .750 with good baserunning and defense. Offense is so down nowadays anyway.