Updated 4 Year Plan

[HUGG]

Marlins teams ranked by fWAR (position - pitching - overall are the columns)

2003 22.8 19.4 42.2 91-71 - WS Champions
2005 18.1 18.3 36.4 83-79
1996 20.7 15.9 36.6 80-82
1997 21.9 13.2 35.1 92-70 - WS Champions
2010 17.1 16.9 34.0 80-82
2009 19.2 14.2 33.4 87-75
2008 20.2 12.6 32.8 84-77
2001 21.2 11.4 32.6 76-86
2014 17.4 14.3 31.7 77-85
2004 18.0 13.3 31.3 83-79
2006 19.8 10.0 29.8 78-84
1995 19.5  9.5 29.0 67-76*
2002 19.9  9.1 29.0 79-83
2011 14.8 14.0 28.8 72-90
2007 20.1  7.0 27.1 71-91
2012 10.9 14.9 25.8 69-93
2000 14.6 10.8 25.2 79-82
1993  6.7 11.8 18.5 64-98
1999 10.8  7.0 17.8 64-98
1994 13.6  3.0 16.6 51-64
2013 -0.8 14.1 13.3 62-100
1998 10.0 -2.0  8.0 64-98

nny has us at 39, but I think that's a little high

[nny]

39 puts us at 87 wins. Both what do you think our win expected should be, and who do you think is over projected?

[HUGG]

Steamer projections for 2015
Saltalmacchia 1.2, Morse 0.7, Gordon 1.2, Hechavarria 0.4, Prado 2.3, Yelich 3.3, Ozuna 3.1, Stanton 5.9

Dietrich 0.1, Mathis 0.0, Rojas 0.0, Bour 0.0, Baker -0.1, Solano -0.1, Realmuto 0.3

Offense Projection: 18.3

Jose 2.8, Latos 1.8, Alvarez 1.7, Haren 1.6, Cosart 0.7, Koehler 0.3

Cishek 0.7, Dunn 0.5, Phelps 0.4, Capps 0.4, Morris 0.2

Dyson, Caminero, Dayton, Conley, Urena, Hand, McKirahan, Ramos, Ramsey, Crow all 0.0

Rienzo -0.1

left Haren in since it has Cosart/Koehler combining for 32 starts

Pitching Projection: 11.1

that has us at 29.4, which I don't agree with at all


My changes:

Morse +0.7 - That projection has him as an OF

in 2014 Cishek, Dunn, Capps, Morris, Dyson, Hand, Ramos, Phelps had a combined 5.3 WAR and this has them at 2.2. So lets go +2.8 there and say they combine for 5.0.

That puts us at 32.9, which I think is low, but fairer.


Now tinkering that to more where I think numbers, I'd say:

Saltalmacchia 1.2, Morse 1.4, Gordon 1.5, Hechavarria 1.0, Prado 2.5, Yelich 4.0, Ozuna 3.5, Stanton 5.5

Bench, no change 0.2 total

Offense: 20.8

Jose 2.5, Latos 2.2, Alvarez 2.0, Cosart 1.5, Phelps 1.1, Koehler 0.9

Bullpen 5.0

Pitching Projection: 15.2

36.0 total, which puts us 5th in the NL behind Los Angeles, Washington, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh

Shields gets us to that 39 range.


I think Phelps is going to win a rotation spot and pitch pretty well, for a while anyway.
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39 puts us at 87 wins. Both what do you think our win expected should be, and who do you think is over projected?

I'm going more off these numbers: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

which has 39 being a top 6 type team
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that's weird how there's a disconnect between those numbers and real numbers for 2014, I honestly hadn't really looked at team WAR numbers before

I pretty much agree with you about ~87 wins

[nny]

Updated 4 Year Plan

To get a expected team win total off war, you add +48 wins IIRC.

The "issue" with projections like steamer is that a lot of it is "regression to mean." So it projects good teams will worse than they will, and bad teams will be better (ie, only one team is projected over 90 wins in 2015, only one sub 70).

It'd be better to compared 39 WAR with, say, last years team WAR totals and see where they stack there. I can't seem to find any site that has that though (only broken up between pitching and hitting) and on my phone so can't do it myself.

I personally just mostly look at their average season WAR, look at projections (which is mostly just average season WAR), and free ball it from there, only in increments if 0.5 for easy of use. I have us at 22 offense (you're at 21) and 17 pitching (you have us at 15. I think our sp are better but I also understand), so still close together

[HUGG]

2014 fWAR

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tigers       23.6 20.3 43.9 90-72
Orioles      28.9 14.5 43.4 96-66
Royals       23.7 18.8 42.5 89-73

Athletics    23.3 16.6 39.9 88-74

Rays         19.9 16.4 36.3 77-85
Indians      16.0 20.1 36.1 85-77
Angels       30.2 15.5 35.7 98-64
Yankees      14.8 20.7 35.5 84-78
Red Sox      17.4 17.3 34.7 71-91

Mariners     14.7 16.1 30.8 87-75
Twins        17.9 12.8 30.7 70-92

Rangers      11.3 12.8 24.1 67-95
White Sox    10.6 13.3 23.9 73-89
Astros        9.9 12.7 22.6 70-92

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Nationals    25.4 22.8 48.2 96-66
Dodgers      31.2 14.6 45.8 94-68

Cardinals    22.0 13.1 35.1 90-72
Pirates      26.9  8.1 35.0 88-74

Braves       16.5 16.1 32.6 79-83
Giants       23.7  8.7 32.4 88-74
Cubs         14.6 17.5 32.1 73-89
Marlins      17.7 14.3 32.0 77-85
Brewers      20.3 11.0 31.3 82-80
Rockies      20.4 10.1 30.5 66-96

Mets         18.2  7.0 25.2 79-83
Reds         15.2  9.8 25.0 76-86

Phillies     10.9 11.9 22.8 73-89
Diamondbacks 11.0 11.1 22.1 64-98
Padres       10.1 11.6 21.7 77-85

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My 36 number would be 3rd highest in the 2014 National League, as would your 39. Your 39 is probably still 3rd, while my 36 is probably 4th (Cardinals adding Heyward).
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I think we've separated ourselves from that 32-30 pack (although the World Champs came from that). I put us in that Cardinals/Pirates 2nd tier group now. The Cubs maybe have moved up in there too. And we have an easier schedule than those 3 do. Braves have dropped themselves down to the Mets/Reds level I would say. Mets probably a little bit better, but not much. Phillies going nowhere.

No idea how high up to move the Padres.

I do not see us challenging the Nationals unless they have injury problems and/or we have some next level performances from our younger players.

[kusch]

Do you guys think it's possible at all Loria and the FO just go all in with Shields or even Scherzer?

[HUGG]

Shields wouldn't surprise me. I don't think it will happen, but I wouldn't be totally stunned.

Scherzer, I just can't see it. He wants 7-8 years and we're not doing that.
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I'd still like to see us add another OF, too.

Our bench locks are Mathis, Baker, Solano. You figure it's gonna be either Bour or Dietrich in the 4th slot. Both are redundant defensively, so comes down to whose bat you like more, I guess. I know Prado can play the OF, but we need another true OF on the bench, I think. They could go with Wates as a slap/speed/defense/pinch run guy, but I think they could do better.

[Big Z]

Some of you have listed Stanton batting 4th. I don't think it will ever happen. The team has mentioned in the past that they've done calculation and batting 3rd gives the hitter X amount of more at bats per year, and Stanton is a guy they would like to get the most st bats out of.

I think the FO has done a hell of a job but they're a good pitcher away from being a legit-no doubt contender. If Haren decides to stay, it would be nice because you plug him in as the 4th starter behind Latos, Henderson, and Cosart. However, if he retires, Shields would be an amazing pick up, and I can't stress enough how amazing he would be. Offer him 3/45 and see if he bites.

[lou]

Shields is going to get twice that money over 5+ years

[nny]

I think we've separated ourselves from that 32-30 pack (although the World Champs came from that). I put us in that Cardinals/Pirates 2nd tier group now. The Cubs maybe have moved up in there too. And we have an easier schedule than those 3 do. Braves have dropped themselves down to the Mets/Reds level I would say. Mets probably a little bit better, but not much. Phillies going nowhere.

No idea how high up to move the Padres.

I do not see us challenging the Nationals unless they have injury problems and/or we have some next level performances from our younger players.

Yeah, I agree completely with all this. Even if we sign Shields, I'd still say we're in that second tier.
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If shields only costed 3/45, every single team in baseball would have signed him by now.