Marlins Acquire RHP Aaron Crow from Royals for LHP Brian Flynn

[thatnewguy]

It depends on the return, but a Cishek trade and a free agent signing can be a good offseason. Yes, if they limit themselves to bargain-bin guys again that is not a good sign but it's unfair to judge their offseason before we even get to the Winter Meetings. Like I said, if they haven't done anything by Christmas then fuck them.

[Bobbob1313]

I mean, if they are sticking with this $65 million payroll plan, I think it's pretty easy to judge them.

[fauowls44]

I mean, if they are sticking with this $65 million payroll plan, I think it's pretty easy to judge them.

How about we let the offseason play out first before judging this team? A few weeks ago, if you would have said we would sign Stanton to a long-term contract, nobody here wouldn't have believed it, so I wouldn't be so fast to assume that we know what else will happen by the time the season starts. After all, we are still a week from the winter meetings and we are going to complain about the offseason already?

[emkayseven]

Like I said, if they haven't done anything by Christmas then fuck them.

Not sure that's the case either...the trend lately seems to be for things to happen super early and super late in the offseason and not much in between.

[lou]

How about we let the offseason play out first before judging this team? A few weeks ago, if you would have said we would sign Stanton to a long-term contract, nobody here wouldn't have believed it, so I wouldn't be so fast to assume that we know what else will happen by the time the season starts. After all, we are still a week from the winter meetings and we are going to complain about the offseason already?

I agree. Let's see what they do.

If the "big" moves are Jason Hammel, Kendry Morales, Rickie Weeks, and trading Cishek for a summer 2016 3B, I mean we're all going to be on the same page here.

But a lot of things need to happen first (Max, Lester, D. Robertson, Oakland is likely going to trade Samardzija, other potential trades like C. Hamels or J. Upton, etc.) before the Marlins can figure out if they are going Shields or one of the lesser guys, and what they can get in trades for Cishek and their SP.

[Bobbob1313]

well, they've certainly earned the benefit of the doubt

[fauowls44]

well, they've certainly earned the benefit of the doubt

I'm not saying that...although the Stanton contract should be worth a little bit of benefit of the doubt.

[Bobbob1313]

I mean, they've backloaded deals like crazy in the past too. This one has a no-trade clause, but that doesn't mean they're going to invest in the team around him.

The fact that they don't appear interested in taking advantage of that backloading by investing in the team around him while he's cheap should raise eyebrows.

If you're going to go for it and try to build the team, the time to do it is when Stanton is cheap. You're going to be limited when he's making $30 million anyways, might as well go for it now. The fact they are looking at a $65-70 million payroll this season is a joke.

[fauowls44]

I mean, they've backloaded deals like crazy in the past too. This one has a no-trade clause, but that doesn't mean they're going to invest in the team around him.

The fact that they don't appear interested in taking advantage of that backloading by investing in the team around him while he's cheap should raise eyebrows.

If you're going to go for it and try to build the team, the time to do it is when Stanton is cheap. You're going to be limited when he's making $30 million anyways, might as well go for it now. The fact they are looking at a $65-70 million payroll this season is a joke.

I don't know, you say that the time to go for it is while Stanton is cheap and then lament the $65-70 million payroll. They are able to keep the payroll low now because all their best players are under control. I don't necessarily think that is a bad thing. The fact that they can still add $25-30 million more in payroll is a positive to me. Which is why I say to just let the offseason play out before being so negative...I mean that's your right, but what's the point of being angry about something before it's happened? Is there anything out there (realistic) on the free agent market that an extra $5-10 million in payroll is going to make a truly major impact? They just have to spend their resources wisely. Let's see if they can do that...

[Bobbob1313]

As things currently stand, they're at $52 million-ish. There haven't been a ton of rumors about moving Cishek, and in fact most have said they are keeping him. So where's this $25-30 million coming from?

[fauowls44]

As things currently stand, they're at $52 million-ish. There haven't been a ton of rumors about moving Cishek, and in fact most have said they are keeping him. So where's this $25-30 million coming from?

I thought I read the current number at $42-45...regardless, my point remains that you don't know what will happen, so we may as well let it just play out. It's not like we even know for a fact that the payroll number is $65-70 million. With the winter meetings next week, I guess we'll find out more of their plans soon enough.

[marlinsfan24]

As things currently stand, they're at $52 million-ish. There haven't been a ton of rumors about moving Cishek, and in fact most have said they are keeping him. So where's this $25-30 million coming from?

Fangraphs ZiPS has them ~71 wins for next season. That means they only have $13M to add about 13-15 wins for a second wild card spot. Not looking good.

[Bobbob1313]

Fangraphs ZiPS has them ~71 wins for next season. That means they only have $13M to add about 13-15 wins for a second wild card spot. Not looking good.

Yep. They look like an 80-win team.

My concern is that they convinced themselves they were "in the race" last season before Stanton's injury, even though they were usually below .500 and only near a playoff spot because a bunch of teams underperformed before September. So they're misidentifying the team's true talent level and think they don't need to make big improvements.

They do need to make big improvements. They need to upgrade at least three of the five infield spots. They seem content to do one.

[lou]

The fact that they don't appear interested in taking advantage of that backloading by investing in the team around him while he's cheap should raise eyebrows.

Is this a little harsh considering only Panda, Hanley, and Tomas have signed to date among the major guys the Marlins could use. And really, only probably Panda was a real option for this team among those. They did offer LaRoche for what thats worth. Not many other FA have signed. Cruz? Don't need. Martin? Way to much money. V-Mart? No. I don't see them completely sitting on their hands, its December 1st. There are a lot of SP left out there, a few infielders (Headley, Lowrie, Asdrubal), and they have trade assets.

Also, do you really want them to spend just to spend, or make smart long term acquisitions? I would rather them do dick this offseason if it means they get a smarter longterm infield or sp fix via free agency next year (don't know who is up in 2016, but you get it). I

I just don't think we're at the point of raised eyebrows - yet. But I really don't think you give someone $325 and not do anything. I'll be shocked if its a Kendry Morales/Rickie Weeks/innings eater offseason.

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Maybe I'm optimistic, but I think the play here is to let Max/Lester cash in with Boston/Cubs/Yankees/etc, then offer Shields big big money ($100 million/5, ala a Werth deal), which then opens up big time SP trades for Marlins which is where the real value is coming from.

Just a for instance of how this could play into a $70 payroll, I could see Heaney, Eovaldi, Hand, and throw in arms to Arizona for Miley/Trumbo (cuts $6-7 million for Arizona this season and gets a lot of longterm pitching for them), and that plus Shields (assuming they sign him) and trading Cishek for whatever (which wouldn't be hard) gets the Marlins to $70 range. (side note, I'm not advocating this trade or whatever, I'm just throwing out a for instance for discussion as how they can build a time in this threshold. yes I know heaney-eovaldi is a lot).

The rotation would be Fernandez(Koehler), Shields, Alvarez, Miley, Cosart, and they will have acquired Trumbo (I'm not a huge fan, but I suspect he would bash a 2+ WAR at 1B and is relatively cheap for 2 years) for behind Stanton, and a second likely infielder for Cishek (god willingly a young 2B/3B). I mean, that's a pretty good team for $70 adding Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, Salty, likely improved 2B/SS play from Kike/Hech/Dietrich and a solid bullpen.

And to your point, I don't think that team raises suspicions. I mean, it would be nice if they dumped a Panda or Sherzer on top of that (or even Headley and ditch McGehee completely) to get payroll to "bottom 25", but I'm not sure them not doing THAT move, pisses me off and raises suspicion they didn't add a lot in the offseason.

It's just early and a lot of dominos are going to fall. A lot of options. If they sit still winter meetings and half the free agents sign, then I think the pitchforks can come out a bit.
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Yep. They look like an 80-win team.

My concern is that they convinced themselves they were "in the race" last season before Stanton's injury, even though they were usually below .500 and only near a playoff spot because a bunch of teams underperformed before September. So they're misidentifying the team's true talent level and think they don't need to make big improvements.

They do need to make big improvements. They need to upgrade at least three of the five infield spots. They seem content to do one.

Well if it's one and a major SP upgrade, I think its OK.

And let's face it - everything needs to go right in 2015 without Fernandez no matter what they do. Fernandez is the game changer to playoffs unless they add $50 million in payroll, which is basically Max, Shields, Headley, and trading out all of Heaney, Cishek, Eovaldi, and other minor league pitchers for more bats. That would be cool, but we all know Loria isn't doing that (even if they would still be bottom 10 in payroll....)

[Bobbob1313]

But that's the thing. They could still be one of the lowest payroll teams in the league while adding significant help.

I've asked before, but what was the point of having a payroll $130 million below the average over the last two seasons if not to start spending once the team was competitive anymore.

Maybe I'm stupid, but I assumed the last two seasons were about stockpiling cash to make a run and spend a little bit more than they normally might down the road.

If they can't manage more than a $70 million payroll next season after spending -- again -- $130 million less than the average over the last two seasons, then I don't see how this can be a viable major-league franchise.

Don't spend just to spend, but I think it's naive as hell to think, "Oh, no, they're just gonna save it and spend it next year with a better free agent class," when that's exactly what they haven't done with their savings over the last two seasons.

I think they're content to buy out the young guys, present that at progress, and keep the team in the bottom 10% in payroll in perpetuity.
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FWIW, Heyman's reporting they have made a 6/$40 offer to Jose and something in the neighborhood of a 6/$31 offer to Yelich. Have also made an unspecified offer to Hechavarria and will likely make an offer to Ozuna later this week.

Which is all fantastic, and I'm happy to see. That does represent true change.

But if they're going to keep throwing out bottom-3 payrolls forever, it probably doesn't matter.