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Done this the past couple years, always fun to look at. Was surprisingly accurate last year considering how dirty it is.
Few notes:
-* means arbitration eligible/guess payroll
-Replacement level team is worth 48 wins, so add 48 to the WAR total for total team wins
-Those WAR numbers are very rough, as are minimum numbers. This is meant as a rough view and not meant to be completely 100% accurate. Just enough to paint a picture.
-If they're making the minimum, their name really doesn't matter (This especially goes for bench/bullpen). It's just used as a filler piece since it's already rather interchangeable.
2015
I have Jose pitching half a season, Heaney the other half. This is a top ~5-10 rotation in baseball with only a half season of Jose, as well as a top ~5-10 bullpen and there's room to think they can outperform this. We definitely don't need pitching.
Top-5 OF in baseball, definitely don't need help there. And I really think Yelich can outperform my prediction WAR of him in the coming years.
But we're looking at getting something like 2-3 WAR out of our IF again. Need help.
I have us as a .500 team next year without any additional gains. We need help in the IF. And with how bad our IF is, anyone decent is a huge upgrade
2016
I try not to remove arbitration guys to show a more fuller picture, but this is with Koehler gone because there's almost no chance he breaks next years rotation unless a lot of things shake up. Mathis, Baker, and Jones off the books, but still increase in payroll through arbitrations. Full season of Jose = woo
2017
Payroll starts moving up a lot with a lot of guys hitting arbitration, but there is also a LOT of pitchers we can get rid of to save space. Payroll still shouldn't be an issue here
2018
Alvarez, Eolvadi, and Cishek gone. Last year of Jose. More arbitration raises. This is where we'll start needing prospects up, mostly in the rotation, because payroll is going to start to hurt.
TL;DR
We're currently built like a .500 team the next few years. We need help in the IF (gasp). We have a lotttt of payroll room the next three years, but by 2018 it goes up a lot.
So we gotta try and focus on 3 year contracts in FA
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I forgot the picture god dammit
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there we go
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Also, we're fucking awesome if we roll out a 100m payroll. LaRoche 2/30, Lowrie 3/30, Headley 4/48, Shields 4/80:
This is a 90+ win team easily. Was too lazy to make 2018 around 100m, but it's easily done by removing BP arms and shit
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