2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[marlinsfan24]

Cosart through 40 starts: 240.1ip 14-12 3.26era .247baa 8.2h9 5.5k9 4.0bb9 0.4hr9
Alvarez last 40 starts: 244.2ip 15-12 3.02era .264baa 9.1h9 5.3k9 1.8bb9 0.6hr9

nearly identical ground ball rates; biggest issue for Cosart is his walk rate, obviously.

The BB rate is what could sink Cosart quickly. His 8-walk performance against the Nats still gives me nightmares.

[Bobbob1313]

I think if either or both could become "Healthy Chien-Ming Wang" I'd be happy.

But they probably still need a No. 2 pitcher.

(Which is why I wanted them to draft Rodon. God dammit.)

[Ralph]

I think both of their K rates will go up. Not shoot up but sit in the low to mid 6 k/9.
--------------------
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hende...lixs-changeup/

A year ago, I was talking to a major leaguer, and when we somehow got to the topic of Henderson Alvarez, the player remarked that Alvarez seemed like he was one little tweak away from becoming a superstar. That much is easy to understand — Alvarez is still very young and he still throws very hard, and all of his pitches have life. It’s easy to see the upside in Alvarez’s repertoire. Maybe he’ll never reach his ceiling, but because of his ability, his ceiling is higher than almost all others.

I was reminded in my chat earlier today that Alvarez has something in common with Felix. Actually, he has a lot of things in common with Felix. That would be another indication of Alvarez’s upside. If you’ve watched Alvarez, and thought to yourself he has an ace’s arsenal of pitches, you haven’t been wrong. He just hasn’t yet made the most of it.

[emkayseven]

David Schoenfield at ESPN ranked us 20th. The Mets were ranked 10th. We're behind the Rays, A's, Royals, and Astros.

I'm just saying, the optimism here isn't unfounded but it's going to be a serious crash back to earth when our SPs don't get out of the 5th inning 40% of the time.

Big offseason moves: Signed Giancarlo Stanton to a $325 million extension that is heavily backloaded and allows Stanton to opt out after six seasons; acquired 3B Martin Prado and RHP David Phelps from the Yankees for RHP Nathan Eovaldi and 1B/OF Garrett Jones; acquired 2B Dee Gordon, RHP Dan Haren and SS Miguel Rojas from the Dodgers for LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Chris Hatcher, 2B Enrique Hernandez and C Austin Barnes; acquired RHP Mat Latos from the Reds for RHP Anthony DeSclafani and C Chad Wallach; signed 1B Mike Morse; traded 3B Casey McGehee to the Giants for two minor leaguers; acquired RHP Aaron Crow from the Royals; signed OF Ichiro Suzuki.

Most intriguing player: Stanton. The contract. The power. The comeback from his late-season beaning.

Due for a better year: Christian Yelich. In 2014, he showed the ability to hit for average and take his walks. This year he adds some power.

Due for a worse year: Henderson Alvarez drives analysts crazy because he went 12-7 with a 2.65 ERA despite a strikeout rate that ranked 83rd among 88 qualified starters. Alvarez does get ground balls -- eighth in ground ball rate -- but he also held batters to a .209 average and just one home run with runners in scoring position. Here's betting that ERA climbs over 3.00.

I'm just the messenger: The Marlins made a lot of moves and acquired some big names ... but did they really do anything but reshuffle the deck chairs? Gordon led the NL in steals and triples but also struggled to get on base in the second half. Haren has stated his preference to pitch for a California team and he hasn't had an ERA under 4.00 since 2011, so is he really an upgrade over Eovaldi? Latos had bone chips removed after 2013, had knee surgery in spring training, had a strained flexor mass in his elbow, eventually made 16 starts but his strikeout rate and velocity were down and then was scratched down the stretch with a bone bruise in his elbow. Going out on a limb, but he's not a good bet to give the Marlins 30 starts.

The final word: OK, I love the outfield: Stanton, Yelich and Marcell Ozuna. Stanton is the oldest of the trio at 25 and all three have All-Star potential. I love Jose Fernandez, but he's not going to be back until late June or so and we don't if he'll be back at full throttle. I think there's a good chance they get very little out of Latos and Haren. The middle infield defense is more flash than substance, at least according to the metrics. The depth is worrisome. Young teams can take big leaps in a hurry but I wonder if the Marlins need another year to consolidate the talent.

Prediction: 79-83

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...4-through-19-2

[Nick]

No mentions of the significant upgrades at 1st and 3rd base? I agree with what they said about Gordon, but do they realize that Donovan Solano started the most games at 2nd base for us last year? With Latos he has a point, but if everything falls together for him health-wise this year he could be a huge boon. Hopefully we only need a decent half-year from Haren before he gets pushed into a mop-up role.

[Jay]

David Schoenfield at ESPN ranked us 20th. The Mets were ranked 10th. We're behind the Rays, A's, Royals, and Astros.

I'm just saying, the optimism here isn't unfounded but it's going to be a serious crash back to earth when our SPs don't get out of the 5th inning 40% of the time.



http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...4-through-19-2

For our SPs not to get out of the 5th inning 40% of the time. Latos will need to be injured. Jose will need to have a setback. Alverez, Cosart, and Koehler will all need to regress a fair amount. And Haren will need to fall further off a cliff. Everything regarding the rotation will need to go wrong for that to happen unless you start pulling starters early because the bullpen is just that lights out.

[lou]

I think if either or both could become "Healthy Chien-Ming Wang" I'd be happy.

But they probably still need a No. 2 pitcher.

(Which is why I wanted them to draft Rodon. God dammit.)

It makes even less sense now that they traded Heaney, i.e. the lefty.
--------------------
And 20th is way low. The Mets at 10 is laughable. They have a nice rotation, but the rest...

[Valid]

David Schoenfield at ESPN ranked us 20th. The Mets were ranked 10th. We're behind the Rays, A's, Royals, and Astros.

I'm just saying, the optimism here isn't unfounded but it's going to be a serious crash back to earth when our SPs don't get out of the 5th inning 40% of the time.



http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...4-through-19-2

The fact that we are ranked behind the Rays and Astros and are 10 spots behind the Mets tells me all I need to know about the validity of these rankings.

[dim]

In regards to Alvarez, I don't think any of us expect him to post a sub 3 ERA again this season. I don't think it's that far off to think he'll be between a 3.30 ERA and a 3.50 ERA pitcher this year. Love him as a #3 pitcher moving forward with potential to post a sub 3 ERA every so often as exhibited this past year. Under normal circumstances he would be our #3 this year with Jose being the ace and Latos the #2 (Cosart #4 and Koehler/Haren #5). Things get a little wonky with Jose's injury.

I'm really expecting a big year from Latos even after coming off the injury. Going from Great American Ballpark to Marlins Park (He's a better pitcher now than when he was pitching at Petco) should improve his numbers and I think he'll make the All Star team. Alvarez should be a steady hand this year (meaning he'll give us 6 or 7 innings of 3 earned runs most nights), I don't know what to really expect from Cosart since I'm convinced that those high walk numbers will make him a 4+ ERA pitcher, but obviously last season still happened. Haren, if he actually gives a crap this year, should be better than many are giving him credit for. He's not the pitcher he used to be but he still strikes out a lot of batters and doesn't walk many. When moving to Marlins Park for half your games, that sets Haren up for some good success this year (#3 starter numbers). Tom Koehler is a wild card similar to Cosart (in that he's likely due to continue his downward trend he exhibited towards the middle to end of last year), but for a #5 pitcher he's a pretty nice option to have. Nearly 200 innings last year and 150+ K's. Add Phelps and Hand to the equation and we actually have a couple contingency plans in case any of our starting pitchers get injured or regress.

The things I'm actually most concerned for going into next season are what kind of production we're going to get from Salty (he was really bad last year) and Gordon (4 walks in the entire second half of last season is incredibly scary to see), and in a sense Morse (I loved the signing, but Marlins Park makes it tough for 1st baseman to put up decent numbers). I expect Hech to match last years numbers, which while they aren't that great are at least near or slightly above league average. The outfield is our biggest strength obviously.

Also have some concerns about the bullpen. We have really solid depth there, but there are wild cards in there. Cishek/Ramos/Capps/Dunn should put up the numbers they usually do, but we can't go in expecting Sam Dyson or Bryan Morris to repeat what they did last year. Crow is coming off an awful year in KC, Rienzo is a starter who put up laughable numbers last year. I love having Phelps and Hand as long relief options though. I see the bullpen being good, but there will definitely be a lot of shuffling around during the season similar to what happens every year. I'm just not ready to call it a strength yet.

There's a lot to look forward to. This is likely the best team we've fielded (I'll ignore the 2012 team, even though they were incredibly talented, for obvious reasons) since 2009. Like a lot of people here I'm not ready to call us a playoff team yet. But the talent is certainly there if everything goes right. I think the key is to stay close to or slightly above .500 until June when Jose gets back. He may not be the same Jose that was the best pitcher in the National League sans Kershaw, but even at 60% strength he makes the starting rotation a lot stronger.

So that's pretty much how I see this team going next year. I think 85 wins seems like a reasonable number, with the fluctuations being all the way down to 70 wins if most things go wrong and 90 wins if everything turns out amazingly right.

[lou]

It's really easy. They need a # 3 or better SP, a healthy Fernandez, relatively healthy Alvarez/Latos/Cosart, and no outrageous injuries to Stanton/Yelich/Ozuna to get over the 85 game hump.

I have -0- concerns with the bullpen. Also, you mention Capps, Dyson, and Rienzo. They probably don't make the bullpen. (Cishek, Ramos, Morris, Dunn, Crow, Koehler/Phelps, Hand.) No problems here, on paper anyways.

[emkayseven]

I was telling Hugg the other day that I really don't get the Mets hype. With the exception of the rotation I'm fairly certain we're better at every position save for maybe 3B (though Wright was downright awful last year and Prado had a better year than he did)

[Namaste]

If Capps doesn't make the bullpen we will be super deluxe in that department

[marlinsfan24]

I'm really expecting a big year from Latos even after coming off the injury. Going from Great American Ballpark to Marlins Park (He's a better pitcher now than when he was pitching at Petco) should improve his numbers and I think he'll make the All Star team.

You may be thinking that the change in home ballparks may help Latos, but according to our park factors, Marlins Park is no more pitcher-friendly than Great American Ball Park, at least on a basic level. Great American Ball Park does cede many more home runs than Marlins Park, but Latos hasn’t had a problem with home runs in his last 300+ innings in Cincinnati. Any advantage gained from the switch in ball parks could be offset by a downgrade in the defense behind him. Cincinnati ranked third in defensive efficiency last year while Miami ranked 27th.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pit...ng-to-steamer/

I agree with you, I think Marlins Park does help him, but there are people that don't believe the stadium will make a difference.

[dim]

I just remembered that Hand is out of options, so he's obviously making the 'pen. Add to that Phelps remains on the roster as the #6 starting pitching who fills in case of emergency, and Crow seems set up for a 'pen role, and you're right lou. Feels weird to leave Dyson out after posting a 2 ERA last year, but he is definitely the odd man out. Carter Capps could probably benefit from another half season in the minors anyway. I don't know the options situation with Rienzo but he's a likely guy to get starts in AAA.

I really just mentioned those guys because they'll likely see time in the majors at some point. I said in my original post that there is depth, but I still believe that Morris/Dunn/Crow present real question marks. Hand/Phelps work well as long relief, Cishek the obvious closer and I have good faith in Ramos as a setup man.

[Erick]

Not sure why Morris is a question mark while Ramos is reliable. I actually have more confidence in Morris and think he's the right-handed setup man with Dunn as the left-handed alternative. That was mostly the case last year when everyone was healthy, and I doubt it'll change unless the team signs KRod.

The bullpen is fine. A lot of the guys have great stuff and really improved as the year went on last year. The fact that a guy like Dyson might not even make the team says a lot about the depth of the pen.