2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[thatnewguy]

Miami Marlins: OK, I'll go ahead and say it. I'm picking the Marlins to be in the World Series. They'll probably have to get into the playoffs as a wild-card team with the powerful Washington Nationals, but they grabbed an ace in Mat Latos, a durable starter in Dan Haren, and rebuilt their infield with Martin Prado, Dee Gordon and Michael Morse. Don't forget, they'll have ace Jose Fernandez back sometime this summer, too.

Ok, Bob. Ok.

[lou]

I was a little harsh in my comment, but he's more of a middle-tier 4 to low-end. I don't see him as a 3 at all.

I agree. He's a 4 on a good team (5 on a great one), and is a way below average 3.

Not a diss as I like him, he's just not a world beater (yet? hope?)

[sports24/7]

We had a 3 yr offer to him with a mutual option for the 4th yr that would have made it around 70-75 million however Shields WIFE wanted to be in SD so they told SD if they can match that somewhat they would take it. SD gave him the 4th year(even tho the mutual option would have made our deal 4 yr) at pretty much the same cash

The KRod stuff came about because they actually had a deal(heard Toronto) that would have sent Cishek there and used his money on Shields and KRod. Like Olney said he heard we had to top offer

The plan seemed to be sign Shields 3 yr(4th yr option) worth about 80 million,trade Cishek and sign KRod. Loria was willing to pay him

If u want someone to blame- BLAME Ryane Shields

What was the return on Cishek? If they were getting a good deal, I don't see why missing out on Shields should matter on that.

[BigGameFish]

once we get Jose back I think our top 3 (assuming Latos healthy) is as good as any team
in baseball. That's also assuming Jose is his normal self.

You guys don't give Henderson Alvarez much credit. He's one of the best pitchers in the National League. He would be an Ace on some staffs in baseball.

[Bobbob1313]

I love Henderson, I think he's great fun to watch pitch, and I also think he needs to prove he can sustain ace-level production with a terrible strikeout rate. It's not impossible, but he would be a pretty big outlier in recent years with that K rate.
--------------------
There have only been three pitcher seasons with an ERA below 2.70 and a K/9 below 6 in the last five years, and Alvarez last year was one of them. There's plenty of reason to doubt if he is actually an ace

[emkayseven]

I don't even see Alvarez as a 2 to be honest. His K rate is awful and I don't think he's sustainable at last year's rate. That being said I'm higher on Cosart than most people and I think he'll end up being a solid 3.

[Party]

Bob Nightengale- USA Today

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...kemp/23136025/

We're doomed.

[BigGameFish]

I don't even see Alvarez as a 2 to be honest. His K rate is awful and I don't think he's sustainable at last year's rate. That being said I'm higher on Cosart than most people and I think he'll end up being a solid 3.

His K rate is horrible? He's not a strikeout pitcher. He throws sinkers that turn into easy outs. Didn't he throw a CG in under 90-95 pitches last season? Talk about nitpicking a random stat to poop on a guy.

[MiamiHomer]

Not being a strikeout pitcher just tells you how much more on his game he has to be to have success. So yeah, K rate is a big deal in determining a pitcher's success. It's obviously not the only factor but a pitcher that can miss bats doesn't have to depend on other factors, like the defense behind him, in order to be successful.

[Bobbob1313]

low-K pitchers tend to be more prone to yearly fluctuations than guys who control the ball better.

[emkayseven]

^this

I'm not a K or nothing guy, and I'm not pooping on him, but his K rate is SO SO low that if for whatever reason any other part of his game is off he's going to regress terribly.

[Jay]

low-K pitchers tend to be more prone to yearly fluctuations than guys who control the ball better.

I don't think control is the right word because you can have a high k rate with no control and you can have absolute control with a low k rate. But I think you're correct that if he is to regress in one area his overall ability will drop farther because he has less dimensions to his game.

[HUGG]

He meant that once the ball is hit, the pitcher no longer has control of it.

[thatnewguy]

Not to mention that the pitcher's with the high K rates and traditionally more dominant "stuff" tend to have more success once the team finally reaches the postseason. Still think Cosart and Alvarez will have a decent amount of success due to their low fly-ball/hr rates during their Marlins tenure. Less convinced with Cosart than Alvarez considering 12 starts > 40 starts but I don't imagine they fall off the face of the Earth next season.

[HUGG]

Cosart through 40 starts: 240.1ip 14-12 3.26era .247baa 8.2h9 5.5k9 4.0bb9 0.4hr9
Alvarez last 40 starts: 244.2ip 15-12 3.02era .264baa 9.1h9 5.3k9 1.8bb9 0.6hr9

nearly identical ground ball rates; biggest issue for Cosart is his walk rate, obviously.