2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[Namaste]

This team is one James Shields away from the NLCS, boys.


Common, Loria. One time it, baby.

[lou]

Just pay the guy.

Who cares, even if you have to overpay? Does this team even have a bad contract right now? Even if the money is somewhat unjustifiable, you could make a case that this team is a James Shields away from being a legitimate contender. The team doesn't really have any glaring weaknesses and the division sucks. Go for it.

There are no bad contracts, however arbitration costs will start to get scary for Gordon, Hech, Solano, Koehler, Phelps, Morris, Ramos, Dunn, and Cishek next year compared to their contributions. I suspect they ditch everyone but Gordon, Hech, and 1-2 relievers though rendering that moot. (I do not include Fernandez, Yelich and Ozuna in this as they would be worth whatever if they can't get a buyout).

No reason to not give Shields 4/$80. Especially with Haren/Cishek potential trades which frees up, up to $16 million, plus $2-3 million saved with the draft pick. Absolutely huge in valuing out how much Shields really costs.

[thatnewguy]

I tend to think that the later Shields goes without having a team, the more likely it is that the Marlins sign him. I mean, we are in almost in February and we are three weeks away from Spring Training and I don't even know if there is another team besides Miami that is even "interested" at this point. Maybe that's what the Marlins are doing right now, just waiting to see if there even is a market to bid against. Why put up 4/$80 million in January when you can get him at 4/$65 or 3/$50 in February, March? If there truly is no market--which, even at his age I find hard to believe--then there really isn't a whole lot of sense to bid against yourself. It'll never get that low, because there seem to be a shit ton of teams like the fish right now just waiting for it to get below $80 million. Shields is great but he's no $100 million great. But you better be damn sure that if he was available at below $80 million, I'd be all over that.

[emkayseven]

Was listening to MLB Network Radio, Todd Hollandsworth said (pretty matter-of-factly) that the Marlins and Padres are the only 2 teams still interested in Shields, just not at the dollar amount he and his agent want. He said he's pretty confident Shields will sign with one of them.

Which isn't good, because Shields is from California and would supposedly prefer to pitch on the west coast

[lou]

Was listening to MLB Network Radio, Todd Hollandsworth said (pretty matter-of-factly) that the Marlins and Padres are the only 2 teams still interested in Shields, just not at the dollar amount he and his agent want. He said he's pretty confident Shields will sign with one of them.

Which isn't good, because Shields is from California and would supposedly prefer to pitch on the west coast

Padres have $20 million in payroll next year to their backup OF

Quentin $8
Maybin $8 ($9.1 next year with buyout)
Venable $4.25

I can't imagine their ownership authorizes them to take on another $20 million when 20-25% of their payroll is already dead money. (They currently have a $101 payroll, but are getting $18 million from Dodgers for Kemp so out of pocket $83ish). Padres payroll last year was $90 somehow, so they do have some space if they can ditch some of those guys above. Also, their 6-7-8 starters right now are Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow, and Corey Luebke (coming back summer I believe). They are kind of deep even if an assortment of youth and injury risks. There is just not as much of a need. I could see them monitoring Shields to see if there is a deal, not actively going for him.

Marlins payroll right now is $78 million (adding in the arbitration tenders and Hech), minus $15ish million so from Dodgers/Yankees so roughly $63 million out of pocket. That includes paying Haren and Cishek $16.6 million, each of whom are more easily tradeable than Quentin/Maybin (I suspect Venable is an easy trade, but you get it). Angels were in on Vogelsong before he signed with Giants, and SD wants a starter apparently. I can't imagine Haren can't be moved. Marlins just may have to eat a couple million on it. He's better than Vogelsong who just got $4 million.

I like the Marlins chances here if SD is the only other suitor. He may prefer to be out West, but the Marlins have more payroll flexibility, better trade assets to clear payroll so they'll actually make an offer, and a better team moving forward. It's an easy choice unless he is hellbent like Lebron at going home.

Sidenote. The Marlins backup bullpen right now is: Capps, Claiborne, Rienzo, Dyson, Caminero, McKirahan, and Conley, and behind them is actually a solid collection of veteran arms and AA prospects; Mazzaro, Masset, Narveson, Ramsey, Urena, Dayton, and Wittgren. There is no excuse to be paying Cishek $6.65 if that is a make or break for a SP with this depth. I don't think any of us would be annoyed if 3 guys in this paragraph were in the bullpen, let alone 1. This is kind of ridiculous RP depth.

Do it. Go for it and figure out later if Haren and/or Cishek need to be cleared to make papa Loria happy.

[Namaste]

MLB Network reporting that "Fish Out On Shields"
--------------------
After watching their segment, it appears it's MLB Networks speculation that the Marlins are out on Shields.

[emkayseven]

but remember a week ago there was a "0 percent chance" we signed him, and before that we were just a rumor, etc

where there's smoke there's fire...it's clear that they're interested, or they wouldn't keep popping up tied to him like this

I've gotta figure he and his agent aren't budging on 100 million so the Marlins leaked that there was 0 percent change last week, and they still won't budge so now they leaked that they're out

I've gotta figure they're in. I've gotta figure SD is in, and I still think Arizona is in too despite what Stewart said

[lou]

I am still also very into, assuming SD signs Shields and they need to then dump salary, trading them Haren/second tier prospects/relievers and taking back Kennedy and Quentin/Venable in a pure salary dump for SD. That could save them $10 million if Marlins eat a little of Haren.

Marlins get the # 3 SP and commit to only half of what they would have paid Shields on 2015 (plus a 1st rounder for Kennedy) and absolutely supercharge bench. Still could trade Cishek for a young longterm asset elsewhere to cut some costs.

Lots of opportunities. Do something.

[thatnewguy]

I'll personally give the FO all $15 that I have on me to help.

[Miamarlin21]

MLBNetwork has a show on tonight at 9pm called "MLB Network Presents The Off-season: Hope in Chicago and Miami." Might wanna check it out.

[Namaste]

Looks like we won't have a ridiculous 7:10 start for Opening Day this year.

Back to 4:10 bliss

[lou]

Caminero booted off 40 man for Ichiro. He'll definitely be claimed.

40 man is actually really competitive right now. The next guys off are probably names like Dyson, Rienzo, Ramsey, McKirahan, Conley, Claiborne, or Dayton, all of whom could probably be 5-6-7th bullpen guys in a third of the bullpens in the league next year. They probably would only ditch Claiborne and McKirahan on that list though.

Deep. 24 arms, 16 bats on 40 man. Only 40 man bats in the minors are going to be Realmuto, Bour, and Rojas/Dietrich (so Dietrich).

[Miamarlin21]

They will have one 40-man spot to give come Spring Training when they put Jose on the 60-day Disabled List.

[marlinsfan24]

Caminero booted off 40 man for Ichiro. He'll definitely be claimed.

40 man is actually really competitive right now. The next guys off are probably names like Dyson, Rienzo, Ramsey, McKirahan, Conley, Claiborne, or Dayton, all of whom could probably be 5-6-7th bullpen guys in a third of the bullpens in the league next year. They probably would only ditch Claiborne and McKirahan on that list though.

Deep. 24 arms, 16 bats on 40 man. Only 40 man bats in the minors are going to be Realmuto, Bour, and Rojas/Dietrich (so Dietrich).

I think if Conley is healthy, he could steal a rotation spot in spring training. Depends on if he can return to his 2013 form.

[emkayseven]

you are way too high on conley my friend