2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[lou]

Payroll complaints are warranted, but is Shields really the answer?

Only option unless a big trade happens

I'm not sure what Cishek brings back in trade that can help right now, which I imagine would be the only real piece they are able to trade as the minors are bare and they need the few ok guys (Nicolino, Realmuto, Romero, Williams) they have to fill spots in 1-2 seasons.

[Bobbob1313]

I'm way less excited about this season than I thought I would be two months ago. Maybe that's my fault.

[lou]

I'm way less excited about this season than I thought I would be two months ago. Maybe that's my fault.

I agree, to an extent. It'll be fun in March, but it's really hard to see them go 9/10th the way to where they need to get, and then just seemingly stop and not get that last piece. And then the nationals drop Scherzer and seemingly are going to get an enormous bat for Straus/Zimmerman/Fister to add to their team.

Signing Shields, trading Haren and eating some money and getting a future 4th RHP for the bullpen, makes this a near perfect offseason (a Yelich buyout makes it perfect, but I can live without that for a year). Hope it happens, or some other creative way to radically upgrade the SP and get a # 3 or better.

[marlinsfan24]

Miami Marlins
While the Marlins need a lot to go right for them and a lot to go wrong for the Nationals to win the division -- ZiPS has the Marlins at 83-84 wins right now, about 10 games behind Washington -- they've been adding key players this offseason, including Mat Latos, Dee Gordon and Michael Morse. They also have another big addition to look forward to in the form of Jose Fernandez, who is expected back midseason following Tommy John surgery. The rest of the rotation right now is rather unexciting, and that includes Latos, whom ZiPS project to have a WAR near 3 but comes with injury concerns that a computer model might not pick up on.

Win differential: Adding Shields, whom the Marlins have expressed interest in, would kick the Marlins up to first-tier wild-card contender status, and maybe even give them a chance to make a run at the Nationals.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...edsshieldsmost

[Valid]

Marlins needed everything to break right and the Nats to suffer a couple of injuries to have a shot in the division. That .01% chance is gone now, too.

For the Wild Card, Fangraphs Depth Charts has us as the 7th best NL team, meaning they'd still need to jump 3 teams to jump into a wild card spot.

I agree 100% with emkay, we need Shields to have a real shot at the playoffs. And even then, we'd need a few things to break our way.

You mean like every other NL playoff contender outside of Washington, LA and maybe St. Louis?

We have had a pretty damn good offseason and it isn't even over yet. Maybe we will sign Shields. Who knows? I don't understand the bitching.

[Swifty]

He's an answer. The problem is that the other answers are no longer on the market.

Shields upgrade over Haren or Koehler gets this team to a playoff team on paper.

Making some assumptions, but if this is a longer term plan than any they've had under Loria (and it's always been 1-2 years and then blow up the blue print) and if they intend to be a contender within the window the Stanton/Fernandez/Yelich core provides before it gets super expensive (so 3 year plan and no buyouts), this is not the season to go all in, so I'm fine with Gordon (through '18) / Prado (through '16) being acquisitions to be part of that plan.

This is the year the Marlins should play the "hey, we have a ton of payroll flexibility" game the Dodgers played in 2012. Find a big bat with a not-so-great contract and hope the change of scenery works. Find a team with a really bad contract and a great asset they're willing to attach to get out from under that contract. That should solve some of the problems.

Then, when the dust settles from that, go all in next season.

[lou]

Then, when the dust settles from that, go all in next season.

The Braves and Phillies will never be worse than 2015, and the Mets have not figured out their offense yet.

This is a really good year to go for it. Next year is too, but this is a really really good year to go for it.
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You mean like every other NL playoff contender outside of Washington, LA and maybe St. Louis?

Which means only 2 other teams make the playoffs, and one of them for 1 game only.

With how bad Atlanta and Philly are going to be and the Marlins having the ability to match the Mets pitching and clearly out bash them, they have a great opportunity to secure a wild card against a significantly more competitive central and a more competitive West with a vastly improved Padres team.

15-16 is a great two year spread to go for it given with what is happening. Sign Shields, deal with it in 2017 (which I already showed above will still be a roughly $90-95 million payroll which is really not a big deal).

[marlinsfan24]

The Marlins open spring training on Feb. 20 with what appears to be their best team in many years, but also with several issues that must be sorted out over the next two months. Chatter on five of those issues:

### Achieving clarity on Jose Fernandez and Dan Haren.

Fernandez, coming off Tommy John surgery last May, will throw off a mound in spring training, and owner Jeffrey Loria expects him to return sometime after June 1.

“We’re still thinking June, July area” for his return to the majors, Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said Monday from Jeff Conine’s annual charity golf tournament.

“Once we get him on the mound, we’ll get a little more clarity. When you’re dealing with those injuries, you’re always cautiously optimistic.

“He’s worked extremely hard. He’s done a tremendous job doing everything he needs to do to get himself back. We won’t put a timetable on it. We don’t want him to feel any pressure.”

As for Haren... Though he has asked for a trade to a West Coast team, no team has made an offer, and Haren told the Marlins he will report to spring training if he's not dealt.

The Marlins would try to accommodate Haren if they get a trade offer, but they’re not calling teams at this point, either.

Because the Marlins are keeping the $10 million given to them by the Dodgers whether they trade Haren or not, there has been considerable internal discussion about what to do if a viable trade option emerges. The Marlins planned to allocate that $10 million to pay Mat Latos if Haren had retired. So Haren’s $10 million isn’t necessarily in the budget.

There's some sentiment internally not to give him away for peanuts because the Marlins believe Haren (13-11, 4.02 ERA in 2014) is still a quality starter and will be effective pitching at Marlins Park. But they're also sensitive to his trade request. It's all moot if no team makes an offer. But if a West Coast team loses a starter to injury in spring training and makes an offer for Haren, the Marlins will face an interesting decision.

Remember, that Dodgers deal wasn't about Haren; it was about getting Dee Gordon and the $10 million to add a high-end starter (Latos).

Asked if Haren will likely be on the team, Hill said: “Our expectation is he will be in spring training and be ready to be one of five and help this club where it wants to go until October. He’s made it clear his preference is to be on a West Coast club and we respect that. But we’re trying to put a championship club together and if something doesn’t materialize for him, we’ll be excited to have him as a Marlin.”

So far, Haren’s only public comment has been this tweet last week: “Today, I watched six episodes of Family Feud and I cried watching Real Housewives of Beverly Hills. I think I’m ready for baseball to start.”

What if the Marlins deal Haren? Then right-hander David Phelps (15-14, 4.21 in three seasons with the Yankees) or lefty Brad Hand (3-8, 4.38 ERA last season) would be the likely fifth starter.

The Marlins also are keeping tabs on free agent James Shields (14-8, 3.21 for Kansas City last season), but it's highly unlikely they will sign him. They could get involved only if Haren is dealt and if the market drops significantly below the five years and $100 million-plus that Shields is seeking. Don't count on the latter.

### Signing Ichiro Suzuki or another fourth outfielder.

The Marlins have offered a one-year contract in the $2 million range to Ichiro and the Marlins remain optimistic, but not certain, that a deal will be struck.

Ichiro, a 10-time All-Star, likes the idea of playing in Miami but has been waiting to see if an opportunity arises where he could earn more playing time elsewhere. Resolution is expected soon.

Ichiro, 41, remains effective; he batted .283, .262 and .284 the past years and hit .462 (6 for 13) as a pinch-hitter last season. He played all three outfield positions for the Yankees in 2014 but just 18 games in center over the past two years.

If Ichiro signs elsewhere, the Marlins likely would trade for a fourth outfielder or sign Nate Schierholtz, 30, who hit .195 for the Cubs and Nationals last season but .251 with 21 homers and 68 RBI for the Cubs in 2013. But Ichiro remains the clear preference.

### Firming up the bench.

This will be one of the toughest decisions of the spring. Three slots should go to the veteran fourth outfielder, backup catcher Jeff Mathis and Jeff Baker (.264).

If the Marlins stick with a 12-man pitching staff, that leaves two other backup position jobs from among infielders Donovan Solano (.252 in 111 games last season), Derek Dietrich (.220 but 14 homers in 106 big-league games) and Jordany Valdespin (.214 in 54 games), first baseman Justin Bour (.284 in 74 at-bats last season) and a few non-roster invitees: infielder/outfielder Don Kelly (can play six positions; hit .245 in 95 games for the Tigers last season), infielder/outfielder Tyler Colvin (.239, 49 homers in six seasons) and infielders Reid Brignac (.222 in seven seasons) and Scott Sizemore (.240 in four seasons).

The Marlins sent Dietrich to instructional league to learn first base and left field, which means he can now play five positions.

### Sorting out the bullpen.

This also will be challenging (barring injuries), because the Marlins have quality depth. Steve Cishek (39 of 43 in saves), Bryan Morris (8-1, 1.82), Mike Dunn (10-6, 3.16, one save), A.J. Ramos (7-0, 2.11) and Aaron Crow (6-1, 4.12, three saves for the Royals in 2014) will hold down five of the bullpen jobs.

That leaves a bunch competing for two jobs: potential front-runner Carter Capps, limited to 17 games by a shoulder injury last season, Hand (who’s out of minor league options) and Phelps if Haren is in the rotation, Andre Rienzo (6-8, 5.89 ERA for the White Sox the past two years/acquired for Dan Jennings), hard-throwing Rule 5 left-hander Andrew McKirahan (2.16 ERA in the minors), Sam Dyson (3-1, 2.14), Preston Claiborne (3-2, 3.79 in 62 games for Yankees in the past three seasons) and Nick Masset (18-14, 4.02 career ERA; did good work for Reds before injuries).

### Establishing a batting order:

Mike Redmond wants to experiment with combinations before deciding. He hasn’t determined whether to hit Christian Yelich second or third or Giancarlo Stanton third or fourth.

Martin Prado factors into that decision. “You could hit him fourth,” Redmond told Marlins radio announcer Glenn Geffner.

Michael Morse is another cleanup option against right-handers if Stanton hits third.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sport...#storylink=cpy
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Few take aways:

They are trying to sell the trade with the Dodgers as a good one by justifying they needed the money to trade for Latos? That's a really bad fucking look. So they consider that trade Latos, Gordon and $10M for Heaney, Kike, Hatcher, Barnes, DeSclafani, and Wallach. Still a huge overpay!

Prado hitting fourth is dumb.

[lou]

Really awful that the Dodger money is for "Latos." Terrible spin, especially considering the payroll landscape in baseball and their low salaries last 5 years. They should use this as an opportunity to upgrade further.

Ichiro would be great for $2

Put Dietrich and Bour in AAA for everyday AB. Let Kelly/Sizemore/Colvin/Brignac/Vagabond Veterans fight for last spot. Solano should be a lock for the "25th man"

The bullpen is locked with Koehler/Phelps and Hand as the last 2 guys, assuming Haren is here. But that's a lot of depth and makes Cishek really expendable to get something more longterm and save some bucks...

Put Yelich-Stanton 3-4 and hit Prado 2nd. It's pretty easy Redmond. Morse and Ozuna have to be behind Stanton.

Not hard!

[Valid]

The Braves and Phillies will never be worse than 2015, and the Mets have not figured out their offense yet.

This is a really good year to go for it. Next year is too, but this is a really really good year to go for it.
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Which means only 2 other teams make the playoffs, and one of them for 1 game only.

With how bad Atlanta and Philly are going to be and the Marlins having the ability to match the Mets pitching and clearly out bash them, they have a great opportunity to secure a wild card against a significantly more competitive central and a more competitive West with a vastly improved Padres team.

15-16 is a great two year spread to go for it given with what is happening. Sign Shields, deal with it in 2017 (which I already showed above will still be a roughly $90-95 million payroll which is really not a big deal).

I understand that, but saying "we need a few things to go right for us to make the playoffs" is silly. There are 15 teams in the NL and only two (maybe three) appear to be locks. In a sport where only one-third of the league makes the postseason, almost everyone needs things to "break right."

[lou]

Sure, but everything is going right so far with how poor the division projects and the significant additions of Latos, Morse, Prado, and I guess Haren and Gordon.

With payroll so low, why wouldn't you increase your changes and become a top 3-4 team in the NL on paper by dumping Shields on the team and getting trade assets for 1-2 of Haren and Cishek? It's just a no brainer. This is the best opportunity they've had to make it for awhile. Go for it! (Let alone, they could arguably be the best team in south florida rather immediately)

[tjfla]

They would love to trade Cishek and then use that cash for Shields BUT #1 the offers they have gotten for Cishek are not what they expected. They think teams are not offering enough value and #2 the price of Shields is still way to high.

They wanna get in on SHields at about 70 million. Now if Shields and the Fish agreed to a deal they would likely ramp up the Cishek market and start calling teams that are interested but there is NO point in dealing Cishek for crap and then NOT using any of that cash for SHields

So if Shields and us agree to a deal then look for Cishek to be dealt BUT that looks like the only way Cishek is gone

As for Haren he still wants to play out West and the reason why he is coming to ST is to stay sharp just in case a team calls.

[Jay]

As for Haren he still wants to play out West and the reason why he is coming to ST is to stay sharp just in case a team calls.

Are you predicting he retires if he is not traded by opening day?

[marlinsfan24]

Just a hypothetical, as this would never happen, but if the Phillies approached the Marlins about a Hamels for Alvarez and a prospect swap, would you do it?

[Ralph]

No. For that money just sign shields.