2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[rmc523]

I think if we can by some miracle get Shields to a 3 year contract, I'd be all in on it. Even if we have to overpay with something like 3 years $80 million I would actually be ok with it (although I'd much rather prefer 3 years $60-65 million with incentives that could make it up to $70-75 million). The biggest reason for this, other than Shields' age, is Stanton's contract. For the next three years, we will be paying Stanton $6.5 million, $9 million, and $14.5 million respectively. After that, the contract becomes $25 million or more for the next ten years.

So for the next three years, our payroll will be stable enough that taking on a Shields contract will NOT impede too much on our future ability to spend. However, in the potential 4th or 5th year of a James Shields deal, not only would you be dealing with a 37 to 38 year old pitcher with at least 2000+ innings of mileage already under his belt, but you're also gonna be using that cap to pay that player $20+ million a year. That payroll would end up being well over $100 million once you factor all the other players we'll also end up having to pay. That's not feasible in the least.

But for years 1-3, we could manage a $70 million to $80 million payroll with Shields on the books for a large amount of money. After that Shields can go his own way, and we can deal with having to find the money to keep Fernandez/Cosart/Alvarez/Yelich/Ozuna/Gordon and others that come along for the foreseeable future.

If to get James Shields will take a 4 or 5 year deal, I'd be very very upset if the Marlins make an offer. It wouldn't be smart and it would hinder the team beyond next season.

Could they structure it to where he'd get less in that 4th year if he'd accept 4 years - so have him make more in years 1-3 when they have more payroll flexibility, and then as the Stanton contract bumps up in year 4, he'd make less?

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Also, Scherzer signed with the Nats for 7 years and over $180MM:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/0...-scherzer.html

[emkayseven]

That payroll would end up being well over $100 million once you factor all the other players we'll also end up having to pay. That's not feasible in the least.

This is a very very silly thing and only fans of a select few teams are trained to think like this. Last year 16 teams had payrolls over $100 million...including powerhouse markets like Milwaukee and Arizona. Within 4 years there's NO FEASIBLE REASON this team shouldn't be able to carry a $100 million payroll. As bobbob has mentioned, an $80M payroll puts us BOTTOM FIVE relative to last year. Might even be bottom 4 in 2015 since the Pirates have made a few moves.

If to get James Shields will take a 4 or 5 year deal, I'd be very very upset if the Marlins make an offer. It wouldn't be smart and it would hinder the team beyond next season.

This is silly thinking too. You cannot perpetually live in a terrified state. If we suck terribly in 4 years because we can't afford anyone, but we made the playoffs 3 years in a row, and maybe even won a couple playoff series, I'd prefer that to winning 82 games for the next 6 years.

[emkayseven]

We signed Don Kelly.

[Namaste]

Your move, Washington.

[lou]

I think if we can by some miracle get Shields to a 3 year contract, I'd be all in on it. Even if we have to overpay with something like 3 years $80 million I would actually be ok with it (although I'd much rather prefer 3 years $60-65 million with incentives that could make it up to $70-75 million). The biggest reason for this, other than Shields' age, is Stanton's contract. For the next three years, we will be paying Stanton $6.5 million, $9 million, and $14.5 million respectively. After that, the contract becomes $25 million or more for the next ten years.

So for the next three years, our payroll will be stable enough that taking on a Shields contract will NOT impede too much on our future ability to spend. However, in the potential 4th or 5th year of a James Shields deal, not only would you be dealing with a 37 to 38 year old pitcher with at least 2000+ innings of mileage already under his belt, but you're also gonna be using that cap to pay that player $20+ million a year. That payroll would end up being well over $100 million once you factor all the other players we'll also end up having to pay. That's not feasible in the least.

But for years 1-3, we could manage a $70 million to $80 million payroll with Shields on the books for a large amount of money. After that Shields can go his own way, and we can deal with having to find the money to keep Fernandez/Cosart/Alvarez/Yelich/Ozuna/Gordon and others that come along for the foreseeable future.

If to get James Shields will take a 4 or 5 year deal, I'd be very very upset if the Marlins make an offer. It wouldn't be smart and it would hinder the team beyond next season.

This is awful. They got a free stadium, have had the lowest payroll in baseball the last decade, and just gave out the richest contract in the history of sports. In an absolute peak year, they can afford to be "middle of the pack" in payroll.

Saying that, what's a 4 year spread look like with Shields you ask?

2015

C - Salty - $7
1B - Morse - $8
2B - Gordon - $2.5
SS - Hech - $2 (projection)
3B - Prado - $11
LF - Yelich - $550k
CF - Ozuna $550k
RF - Stanton - $6.5
B - Mathis - $1.5
B - Baker - $2.1
B - Solano - $550k
B - Ichiro/Veteran Bat - $2 (projection)
B - Veteran Minimum Bat - $750k

SP - Shields $18 (hypothetical)
SP - Haren - $10
SP - Latos - $9.4 (projected losing arb hearing)
SP - Alvarez - $4
SP - Cosart - $550k
RP - Cishek - $6.65
RP - Dunn - $2.3 (projected losing arb hearing)
RP - Crow - $2
RP - Phelps - $1.4 (projected losing arb hearing)
RP - Koehler - $600k
RP - Ramos - $550k
RP - Morris - $550k

All of that, is $101 million. Throwing in Dodger/Yankee money, that is $86 million out of pocket.

Ditching Cishek for Hand in the bullpen saves $6.1 million (and nets a long term asset), that's rounded $80 million

Ditching Haren for Capps/Dyson (as Koehler/Phelps upgraded to rotation), saves $9.5. Or if they have to eat some of that, let's just say they save $5 million.

$75 million out of pocket payroll, for a playoff team on paper.

2016

C - Salty - $8
1B - Morse - $8
2B - Gordon - $5 (projection)
SS - Hech - $3.25 (projection)
3B - Prado - $11
LF - Yelich - $550k
CF - Ozuna $3.5 (projection)
RF - Stanton - $9
B - Realmuto - $550k
B - Dietrich - $550k
B - Bour - $550k
B - Ichiro/Veteran Bat - $2 (projection)
B - Club Controlled 25th man - $550k

SP - Shields $18 (hypothetical)
SP - Alvarez - $7
SP - Fernandez - $3.5
SP - Cosart - $550k
SP - Nicolino - $550k

RP - Phelps - $2.5
RP - Ramos - $1.5
RP - Morris - $1.5
RP - Capps - $1
RP - Hand - $550k
RP - Dayton/Conley - $550k
RP - 5th RP Dyson/Caminero/Whoever - $550k

2016 roundball - $91 million. Very, very reasonable given the circumstances. This would have ranked 20th in payroll in 2014 numbers.

*Latos not resigned recouped first rounder, not counting any trade assets for Haren/Cishek/Koehler/Crow/Dunn either

2017

C - Realmuto - $550k
1B - ?????
2B - Gordon - $7.5 (projection)
SS - Hech - $5 (projection)
3B - Romero/Dietrich - $550k
LF - Yelich - $4 (projection)
CF - Ozuna $5.5 (projection)
RF - Stanton - $14.5
B - Backup Veteran Catcher - $750k
B - Bour - $550k
B - Club Controlled from below P trades - $550k
B - Veteran Minimum Bat - $750k
B - Club Controlled 25th man - $550k

SP - Shields $18 (hypothetical)
SP - Alvarez - $11
SP - Fernandez - $8
SP - Cosart - $3.5
SP - Nicolino - $550k

RP - Ramos/Morris - $2.75
RP - Capps - $2
RP - Hand - $1.25
RP - Dayton/Conley - $550k
RP - Urena- $550k
RP - Dyson/Caminero/Whoever - $550k
RP - Club Controlled RHP - $550k

2017 Projected - $90 million, and they need a starting 1B. Which you would hope could be done for sub $10 million like they did this year, and maybe they get a 1B from one of trades below or just need a cheap platoon partner for Bour.

*Traded Phelps and Ramos/Morris, and still not really including any trade assets for Haren/Cishek/Koehler/Crow/Dunn/Phelps/one of Ramos/Morris beyond back of bullpen and bench < - which is absolutely going to bring real assets

Again, we're now at 3 years of paying Shields $18 million a year and the entire team is basically internal and nothing that much of a stretch. Also heavily ignoring what may be received in trades as that is a half dozen young pitchers currently being shipped out.

2018

C - Realmuto - $550k
1B - ?????
2B - Gordon - $10 (projection)
SS - Hech - $7 (projection)
3B - Romero/Anderson - $550k
LF - Yelich - $7.5 (projection)
CF - Ozuna $8.5 (projection)
RF - Stanton - $25
B - Backup Veteran Catcher - $750k
B - Bour - $550k
B - Club Controlled from P trades - $550k
B - Veteran Minimum Bat - $750k
B - Club Controlled 25th man - $550k

SP - Shields $18 (hypothetical)
SP - Fernandez - $12
SP - Cosart - $5.5
SP - Nicolino - $550k
SP - Kolek - $550k

RP - Capps - $3
RP - Hand - $2.5
RP - Dayton/Conley - $550k
RP - Urena- $550k
RP - Dyson/Caminero/Whoever - $550k
RP - Club Controlled RHP - $550k
RP - Club Controlled RHP - $550k

2018 - $107 million, with a super expensive Shields and spending $17 million on two light hitting middle infielders. I think, in hypothetical land, it would be very realistic to assume one of those guys would be ditched at this point, bringing payroll closer to $100 million range, and you would just have to expect through 2015 draft picks and trading away at least the 6-8 pitchers above, they could fill out their bench, bullpen and maybe a starting spot or two.

A $107 payroll would have been 15th in 2014 dollars, which is probably bottom half come 2018.

This is all, with an outrageously expensive James Shields on the books, and the team will have likely made the playoffs some of these years because those are really good projected teams with Fernandez/Stanton/Yelich/Ozuna/Alvarez/Cosart/etc.

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Edit:

I could not disagree more that this scenario "hinders" the team.

They have the pieces. They have the payroll. Yes Shields will be older and slow down at some point, but the window is open right now with the Braves tanking for the stadium, the Phillies weaker, and the Mets not yet figuring out their offense.

I find it very realistic a super charged Marlins can win a wild card behind the Nationals given their team and division. The West and Central are both stronger right now.

[MiamiHomer]

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Source: Scherzer deal with #Nationals is seven years, $210M with half deferred. He will receive $15M per year for 14 years.

Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Sources: Max Scherzer's deal includes a $50M signing bonus to be paid out over a portion of time. Structured that way for tax purposes.

wow

[lou]

wow

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Source: Scherzer deal with #Nationals is seven years, $210M with half deferred. He will receive $15M per year for 14 years.

Got to be the worst contract of all time.

But I do appreciate them going for it - they see how crap the division is for the next few years. This is locking in multiple playoff appearances.

[MiamiHomer]

John Perrotto @JPerrotto

Hearing #Nats RHP Stephen Strasburg is very much available and both sides believe it is time to move on. #MLB

Well that's something.

[emkayseven]

There are 5 big pitchers currently presumably available.

4 of them - Hamels, Strasburg, Fister, Zimmermann - are only available via trade with an NL East team. We have no trade assets left, and an NL East team would likely not trade a top starter to us.

It leaves only Shields.

It's an absolute no brainer to me. The payroll isn't even an issue for this year. They're afraid of the payroll in 4 years. Deal with 4 years in 4 years. Make the fucking playoffs already.

[Bobbob1313]

H8 u front office

[marlinsfan24]

Marlins needed everything to break right and the Nats to suffer a couple of injuries to have a shot in the division. That .01% chance is gone now, too.

For the Wild Card, Fangraphs Depth Charts has us as the 7th best NL team, meaning they'd still need to jump 3 teams to jump into a wild card spot.

I agree 100% with emkay, we need Shields to have a real shot at the playoffs. And even then, we'd need a few things to break our way.

[lou]

They could eat half of Haren's salary, sign Shields for $22 million and keep Cishek and be under $90 (including Dodgers bucks, so payroll technically $105).

Still bottom 10 in baseball payroll likely. That would have to be a 90 win projection even if the Nationals are winning 105
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There are 5 big pitchers currently presumably available.

4 of them - Hamels, Strasburg, Fister, Zimmermann - are only available via trade with an NL East team. We have no trade assets left, and an NL East team would likely not trade a top starter to us.

It leaves only Shields.

It's an absolute no brainer to me. The payroll isn't even an issue for this year. They're afraid of the payroll in 4 years. Deal with 4 years in 4 years. Make the fucking playoffs already.

Not to splits hairs, but only 2 pitchers are available. Hamels and a Nationals starter. They ain't trading two.

Which means yea, even more important to get Shields as only 3 are available.

[Swifty]

Payroll complaints are warranted, but is Shields really the answer?

[emkayseven]

He's an answer. The problem is that the other answers are no longer on the market.

Shields upgrade over Haren or Koehler gets this team to a playoff team on paper.

[Erick]

Payroll complaints are warranted, but is Shields really the answer?

We're pretty much set at every position.
Shields would become our ace.

Thus, it's possible that he is the immediate answer, yes.

Not signing Shields is just cheap. They should actually sign Shields and still be able to keep Cishek because that's what a big league team trying to win would do.