2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[Swifty]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I think there are worse problems to have than Haren as your 4/5.

You know he'll get you 180-ish innings and a whip around 1.1-1.2. As an NL #4 in a huge park with a decent defense behind him he'll be fine.

[Nick]

Yeah I'm ambivalent. It's too much to be paying him, (even though we're technically not) but depth at starting pitching has never been a bad thing.

If that $10 million freed up would let us sign say James Shields, then yes it's a huge deal, but there's no way of knowing that's the case.

[Jay]

I don't think trading him is going to happen because I highly doubt that the marlins will include cash to cover part of his salary and Haren's unwillingness to play for teams outside of his socal limits potential partners. The only way that he actually gets traded is for someone that has more money on their contract and is just as bad. I'd rather stick with Haren in the rotation as he should outperform his expectations in Marlins park.

[emkayseven]

@Ken_Rosenthal
Shields did not want to go to team that made $110M offer, source tells me and @jonmorosi. An NL GM had speculated that, per @nickcafardo.

@Ken_Rosenthal
#Marlins still good fit for Shields. GM Jennings drafted Shields for #Rays. Pitching coach Hernandez was with TB when Shields was in minors.

@Ken_Rosenthal
Shields also fits #Marlins’ need for veteran starter; Latos potential FA, Haren possible trade. But will ownership keep spending? Unclear.

[rmc523]

@Ken_Rosenthal
Shields did not want to go to team that made $110M offer, source tells me and @jonmorosi. An NL GM had speculated that, per @nickcafardo.

@Ken_Rosenthal
#Marlins still good fit for Shields. GM Jennings drafted Shields for #Rays. Pitching coach Hernandez was with TB when Shields was in minors.

@Ken_Rosenthal
Shields also fits #Marlins’ need for veteran starter; Latos potential FA, Haren possible trade. But will ownership keep spending? Unclear.

At the rate the Astros are trying to throw money at people, I wonder if they could be the team that threw out the $110MM offer...

[Miamarlin21]

Marlins have signed right-handed pitcher Nick Masset to a minor league contract. He pitched for the Rockies in 2014.

[lou]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I think there are worse problems to have than Haren as your 4/5.

You know he'll get you 180-ish innings and a whip around 1.1-1.2. As an NL #4 in a huge park with a decent defense behind him he'll be fine.

Yea but he is the 3?

[HUGG]

Cosart is the 3

[lou]

I would disagree, not that it matters much though. Either way, Haren or Cosart is a below average 3rd SP in the league. They would be a tremendous 4/5.

Still think they are a SP away for realistically challenging the Nationals.

[emkayseven]

### The representative for arbitration-eligible Marlins closer Steve Cishek (39 for 43 in saves in 2014) broached the idea of multiyear deal, but the Marlins prefer to go year-to-year with him. He’s a free agent after 2017.

### Though the Marlins made a multiyear offer in an attempt to get Jose Fernandez under contract past 2018 (when he becomes eligible for free agency), they were left with the strong impression that agent Scott Boras prefers to take his clients into free agency.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sport...#storylink=cpy

[lou]

Fernandez will sign when he re-establishes value August/September. They'll get a better deal this fall. There is no reason for him to not give up 2 free agency years on a 6 year deal, 4 years away from free agency and having a tommy john. That would just be crazy as long as the Marlins are fair and give him a Bumgarner or better deal.

[tjfla]

They have been taking calls on Cishek however they have not gotten anything close to what they think his value is so they have decided to hold onto him

The Masset signing is another indicator that they are willing to move him,while Masset is on a minor league deal he gives us another setup man(if healthy). The last thing we need is RP

The FO would love to move Cishek and use that cash for Shields(NOT 100+ tho like he wants) but they aren't gonna move him just to move him. They see him as a 3 prospect type guy(1 Top Prospect,1 Mid and a project-Flynn/Desco type) and seems they are sticking to that

[lou]

They have been taking calls on Cishek however they have not gotten anything close to what they think his value is so they have decided to hold onto him

The Masset signing is another indicator that they are willing to move him,while Masset is on a minor league deal he gives us another setup man(if healthy). The last thing we need is RP

The FO would love to move Cishek and use that cash for Shields(NOT 100+ tho like he wants) but they aren't gonna move him just to move him. They see him as a 3 prospect type guy(1 Top Prospect,1 Mid and a project-Flynn/Desco type) and seems they are sticking to that

Your last paragraph seems very convenient.

However, responding just to Cishek's perceived value, if they get one really good prospect and some flyer arms, they should run to take that. Would be robbery for a reliever going to cost close to $30 million next 3 years for 200 innings of work.
--------------------

Marlins proceeding cautiously on Shields
MIAMI — In so many ways, James Shields and the Marlins are a perfect fit. So why does it remain a long shot that Big Game James will sign with Miami?

Quite simply, the dollars have to make sense. Miami had no intentions of going five years and more than $100 million for a 33-year-old. Now, there are indications the demands are lowering, which again makes the Marlins a possibility.

But at what price? Would fives years, $90 million get the deal done? Perhaps, but that would depend on how it the contract is structured.

The Marlins are in a precarious place when it comes to their payrolls. The projected payroll for 2015 is in the $65 million range. Now, that figure could have some wiggle room based on Dan Haren’s situation. If Haren retires, Miami still gets $10 million from the Dodgers. And if Haren pitches for Miami, L.A. is paying the $10 million.

Either way, the organizaiton is aiming to avoid the overspending it did in 2012, when the payroll topped $100 million for the only time in franchise history. A number of players on that squad had heavily backloaded contracts. When ticket sales and other revenues didn’t meet expectations in the first season in the new ballpark, upper management opted to break the team up.

The Marlins don’t want history to repeat itself. They don’t want to relive that ugly chapter again.

So Miami must be careful how to approach Shields, because a bad contract could upset the rest of their roster in upcoming seasons.

The Marlins probably could stretch their budget in 2015, and pay Shields perhaps as much as $20 million. But if the club is on the hook for that figure or more in 2016, it could eat up a majority of the projected 2016 budget. No figure has been revealed for ’16, but it could be in the $80 million range.

Four players are already signed for $33 million in ’16. Giancarlo Stanton will make $9 million, while Martin Prado, Morse and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are each on the hook for $8 million. Prado technically is signed for $11 million in ’15 and ’16, but the Yankees are paying $3 million in each season.

Along with those four, 14 players on this year’s roster will be arbitration-eligible in ’16. Many are core players.

Projected arbitration players in ’16 are Steve Cishek, Aaron Crow, Mike Dunn, Dee Gordon, Jose Fernandez, David Phelps, Marcell Ozuna, Henderson Alvarez, Bryan Morris, Donovan Solano, A.J. Ramos, Carter Capps, Tom Koehler and Adeiny Hechavarria.

Miami also is considering extensions for Fernandez, Ozuna and Hechavarria, as well as Christian Yelich, who is eligible for arbitration in 2017.

The Marlins clearly are going for it in 2015. Shields just might be the missing piece to being in the postseason.

What Miami is weighing is how to afford Shields without impairing future budgets.

– Joe Frisaro

http://joefrisaro.mlblogs.com/

---

So this is a non issue

Salty - $8
Morse - $8
Gordon - $5 (arb projection, heavy sided)
hech - $2.5 (arb projection)
Prado - $11
Yelich - $500k+
Ozuna - $500k+
Stanton - $9 million (total position starters, let's make it $45 million)
Bench -Realmuto $500k, Bour $500k, Dietrich $500k, Solano $1 mil, Veteran Bench player $1.5 mil (total $4 million)

Offense costs $50 million, let's round it up a little

Alvarez - $6
Fernandez - $3.5
Cosart - $500k+
Nicolino - $500k+ (I imagine they want him here) (4 starters cost, rounding up, $11 million)

Koehler - $2.5 (arb projection)
Phelps - $2 (arb projection)
Ramos - $1.5 (arb projection)
Morris - $1.5 (arb projection)
Capps - $1 mil
Hand - $500k
Dayton/Conley - $500k (bullpen costs $9)

So the team is at $70 million (likely a bit lower as rounding up) coming back next year, without only 1 SP and a whatever bench guy. And that's with a very heavy bullpen where you could easily cut $5 million by trading out 3 of those 5 guys making a $1 plus and replacing from the Caminero/Urena/Dyson/Vagabond RP group.

So $65 million basically (again, and that's a heavy estimation), plus trade assets for Cishek, Dunn, Crow, and 2-3 of Koehler/Phelps/Morris/Ramos/Capps group, which makes it even more probable they could fit the pen into this budget as those 4-5 guys in trade are going to bring back a solid return.

So if Shields is 5/$90, that's an easy $80-worst case $83 budget in 2016. And could go lower if they sacrifice Hech/Solano/Bench Bat with club controlled options. Then in 2017, Salty, Morse, and Prado come off the books, where you're then just shifting that payroll to arbitration raises for Yelich, Ozuna, Alvarez, Cosart, Gordon, and Hech and your only really "additional costs" are Stanton and Fernandez rising. Internal replacements with Realmuto, someone from Dietrch/Romero/Twine/Anderson, etc. cover everything else.

Ditch Haren and Cishek now, save that $17 million and get a good young infielder or P for Cishek, and sign Shields for 5/$90 range.

It fits into budget and tough choices won't have to be made until 2018.

[lou]

I forgot Ozuna is a likely Super 2.

So bottom line would shift it closer to $82-85.

Same shit. If they are worried about going $2-5 million over budget and not have Shields, that's shitty.

And to post for bobbob - that is still a bottom 5 payroll in baseball more than likely so no excuses

[marlinsfan24]

Joe Frisaro @JoeFrisaro · 1h 1 hour ago

The #Marlins now have 11 players signed at $57.225 mm, w/ Dodgers picking up $12.5 mm. So Miami's on hook for $44.725 mm

Twitter.