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Originally posted by kusch
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Me too. -
Would I like James Shields leading the rotation going into next season? Hell yeah. A repeat of his numbers last season would be absolutely amazing.
Do I want to give James Shields 5 years, $110 million as is rumored some team has given him? Hell freaking no. If the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, whoever with financial means to take on the burden want to be paying somebody over $20 million per year when he reaches the ages of 36/37/38, by all means go ahead and possibly make a playoff run next year.
If his shoulder gives out and/or he starts regressing to the mean that generally happens when pitchers hit their mid to upper 30s? That contract becomes a huge burden that prevents us or any other non big market team from making serious meaningful moves in the future.
That includes contract extensions for Yelich, Ozuna, Alvarez, maybe even Cosart or Fernandez. I'm not cool with mortgaging the teams young talent for an aging James Shields.
Sorry, but if the Marlins even consider that deal it would be moronic. Not on the scale of Heath Bell considering Shields will probably pitch pretty damn well at Marlins Park, but you can't be tying up $20 million+ per year for the next five years to a 33 year old pitcher. Smart teams don't do that crap.
If he decides to be strange and take the same deal but for just three years I'd feel a hell of a lot better about being involved. Five years is just a long time and $110 million is a lot of investment.Last edited by dim; 01-05-2015, 12:22 AM.Comment
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Latos Extension
With the arbitration time approaching - well before ST - is there any chance the Marlins consider signing him to an extension. He seems very happy to be back in Florida, is coming off an injury, is there any chance they could get him to sign a 3 yr deal with an option or something similar? I know his velocity dropped last year with the injury, but still managed to put up good numbers and would lock up the top end of the rotation (Jose + Henderson + Latos + 4/5) for the next 3 years. How much do you think would get it done 3/30 + opt or 3/32 +opt 8+12+12 (+14 opt) say? Personally I would prefer this to going after Shields on a 5 year contract.
Has there been any more news on the Yelich/Ozuna/Jose/Hech extensions? I genuinely think Hech can be a 2/2.5 WAR player going forward and I think he is young enough that it can happen.
McGehee is a DFA candidate within 2 months of ST. He was a sell 'high' and will probably be available for depth at a cost of a bag of balls come May.
I like the Prado trade, it is a smart baseball move, he is a guaranteed 2.5 win player. For all the SABR love for EO, watching him have repeated 10+ pitch at bats throwing 98+ was painful - just reminded me of Braden Looper. Also raises a pet peave of mine in the use of soley FIP when analysing pitcher wins. It is an ill fitting stat for stating past performance, batter fWAR does not regress for a high BABIP, it is based on the produced numbers, whereas fWAR for pitchers based soley on FIP does not provide any benefit from a low BABIP.
Speaking of which I read a fangraphs article only yesterday about Henderson Alvarez : Fangraphs which shows comparisons with similar numbered pitchers. It is worrying, however funnily enough Alvarez is known for his Maddux's Ground_Ball_With_Eyes_Article. I think he threw a couple more this season!Comment
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Not reported by anyone that u all listen to but the Marlins wanna see if Haren would be OK with Seattle.
They have been talking with Seattle,LAA and SD about him.Comment
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if he's cool with seattle he should be cool with any team in either western division.Originally posted by tjfla View PostComment
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there ya go Louclarkspencer @clarkspencer 33m33 minutes ago
#Marlins have checked on Ichiro Suzuki as backup outfield option.Comment
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Yea I mean it's a great fit, ignoring Samson comments from years ago. They are also rumored to be looking at Nate Schierholtz, who was really great in 2013....Originally posted by HUGG View Post
Either would be a good fit and give them a respectable 4th OF on paper.
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I doubt it, the same way McGehee had $65.Originally posted by Sr.Imbto
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I think Latos would cost close to double that on a 4 year deal right now. 4/$55-60 range minimum. He has a lot of leverage so close to free agency. I'd also rather sign Alvarez over Latos moving forward as a young, healthier, and maybe even more upside option (that fastball has to get whiffs eventually right?). I also think neither of those decisions should impact whether they sign Shields. As bobbob says - they have the money and can afford to have the 24th highest payroll in baseball for the next 4 years.Originally posted by Cambridge View Post
McGehee was traded in a small deal if you missed that too. Marlins didn't do horrible and got OK arms from Giants.Comment
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Well, Headley also had a supposed $65 million deal and ended up signing for much less, so while possible, it's not a certainty that Shields already has a $110 million offer.Originally posted by Sr.ImbtoComment
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The $65 million offer Headley had on the table was real, if I remember correctly. He just wanted to play for the Yankees instead of the Astros (whom the offer was supposedly from).Originally posted by rmc523 View PostComment
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Fair enough Lou, it was more the injury uncertainty and the 'home town discount' hence the 4/$46 figure with option. I am certainly not against extending Alvarez and think it would be a great move now, though have not heard anything about it. I don't like the Shields numbers/length being bandied around; just too much risk.Originally posted by lou View Post
I know McGehee got traded, I was referring to the Giants doing the DFA in May and getting him back as depth if the FO wants him.Comment
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Nothing ground breaking, just posting. A little interesting Realmuto valued that highly already. I would say another full year in minors and make him prove it again.### The Marlins were very open to dumping the last two years and $15 million of catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s contract, according to a team that spoke with them, but nothing materialized and Miami now expects him back, hoping for drastic improvement.
He finished his first Marlins season with the most errors of any catcher in baseball (15), the third-lowest average among qualifying catchers (.220), and among the worst averages in all of baseball with runners in scoring position (.182) and runners in scoring position and two outs (.122, 5 for 41).
The Marlins love top catching prospect J.T. Realmuto --- a excellent defender who hit .299 with 8 homers, 62 RBI at Double A Jacksonville. He would have been in line to share the job with Jeff Mathis if Saltalamacchia had been dealt.
### As our Clark Spencer reported, Ichiro Suzuki has emerged as a possibility for the Marlins’ fourth outfield job. Ichiro, 41, hit .281 for the Yankees last season.
Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sport...#storylink=cpy
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The thing with Shields is, even if he stinks in year 4, they will have a lot of club controlled options theoretically (Realmuto, Romero, Kolek, Nicolino, Williams, probably 5+ relievers), and only Fernandez/Yelich/Ozuna/Stanton are likely to be expensive on the team (I suspect Hech, Cosart, and Gordon don't break the bank in arbitration, but hopefully wrong as that mean they'll be really good). They can afford this risk, let alone how good would the team look the next two seasons which does have a value.Originally posted by Cambridge View Post
Either way, they would still be bottom half in payroll with Shields and keeping the whole team together (and that's adjusting that they always have $20-25 million in low year FA guys, like Salty, Prado, Morse, Dunn, etc).
Salary is in good shape so I am OK doing the "jayson werth" overpay contractComment
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That seems to be the plan with Realmuto now. They had wanted to move Jones or Salty and they moved Jones so Salty will stay unless some team makes a crazy offer
As for the 4th OF spot,they are said to be looking at about 10 guys not counting trades. They want the 4th OF to be a LHB. What might end up happening is signing 2 or 3 guys to minor league deals and have them battle it out.
If Haren gets traded to SD,could also possible see VenableComment
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What did you hear about Shields? Or any other starters we are looking at?Originally posted by tjfla View PostComment
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Nothing on Shields until the price comes down. They have interest tho.Originally posted by kusch View PostComment
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Part of me would love to see the team invest in Brandon Beachy with that haren money and see if he can make it back."You owe it to yourself to find your own unorthodox way of succeeding, or sometimes, just surviving."
- Michael Johnson
J.T. Realmuto .282/.351/.412Comment
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