2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[BigGameFish]

Nah.

You just think that anyone who thinks they haven't made any mistakes along the way is a "hater."

Fair point.

[nny]

Like, this could be a good team. I think there's also some 2012 potential here, with guys like Ozuna, Gordon, Alvarez and Cosart looming as regression candidates and Latos and Jose representing massive amounts of risk.

I'd expect something around 85 wins as currently constructed, but this team is by no means a lock for playoff contention.

Yeah, there's definitely a big break risk in there. 2012 was a huge fluke, but I'd say this team has even more potential to go down the suck pipe pre-season than the 2012 team did. We really need another SP to help solidify this team. Koehler and Phelps/Crow/Hand/Whoever is not a good starting 5.

I do feel like this is becoming another pre-2012 offseason in hype. We weren't that good pre-2012 (also projected to be a .500 team then), and we still aren't that good now. We should compete for a wild card spot, but it's like you said, we are far from a lock. We'd need to sign Shields AND Max to become a lock (We'd still be middle of the pack in payroll if we signed both, huehuehue)

[Valid]

I mean, barring injuries, I think we are definitely a lock to at least contend for a playoff spot.

Look at the rest of the NL. I guess your playoff "locks" are Washington, St. Louis and the Dodgers. Then you have the rest of the pack like San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and who else? The Braves have gotten worse. The Brewers aren't all that good. The Reds have kind of fallen off a cliff. The Mets have nice pitching but absolutely no offense to speak of. Maybe the Padres? I think it's a safe bet to say we are better than those teams and at least on par with the Giants and Pirates.

Also, if you're predicting around 85 wins, doesn't that essentially mean we are a lock for postseason contention? The two NL Wild Card teams last year both won 88 games.

[nny]

We are not a lock because there's high risk, as Bob pointed out.

There's a difference between should and being a lock. We should contend for a playoff spot. But if Jose doesn't come back well from his injury, or Latos doesn't, or Alvarez goes all 2012, Dee goes back to being a low .600 bat, Ozuna's discipline eating him alive, so on and so forth. This team has a lot of risk built into it.

I mean, yeah, every team is "barring injuries," but both are #1 AND our #2 SP are coming off injuries. Our #1's being so bad he won't come back until half way through the season. That's not barring injury, that is current injuries.

The Nats and Dodgers are basically playoff locks because their built in risk is so minimal. They only thing they really have to worry about is potential injuries. Teams like the Cardinals are playoff contending locks because they're the same way.

[Namaste]

No such thing as a lock, boys.

[Valid]

We are not a lock because there's high risk, as Bob pointed out.

There's a difference between should and being a lock. We should contend for a playoff spot. But if Jose doesn't come back well from his injury, or Latos doesn't, or Alvarez goes all 2012, Dee goes back to being a low .600 bat, Ozuna's discipline eating him alive, so on and so forth. This team has a lot of risk built into it.

I mean, yeah, every team is "barring injuries," but both are #1 AND our #2 SP are coming off injuries. Our #1's being so bad he won't come back until half way through the season. That's not barring injury, that is current injuries.

The Nats and Dodgers are basically playoff locks because their built in risk is so minimal. They only thing they really have to worry about is potential injuries. Teams like the Cardinals are playoff contending locks because they're the same way.

We technically contended for a playoff spot last year (we were in it until mid-September) with Jose out most of the year, Donovan Solano manning second base and McGehee falling on his face (as expected) after the All-Star break. We probably would have finished with 80 wins if Stanton didn't go down.

I'm basing a lot of this off of how bad the rest of the NL is outside of the top three (WAS, LA, STL). Most of the other teams that are going to be fighting for playoff spots with us also have a lot of risk built in.

Maybe "lock" isn't the right word, but I think it would take quite a bit of bad luck for the Marlins to not at least be in the playoff hunt in September.

[flamarlins93]

I wonder if the Marlins would be able to sign Wandy Rodriguez to a minor league deal or if he is looking for a major league deal?

[lou]

According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, starter Dan Haren is "holding out hope" for a trade to the Angels or Padres.
Haren told ESPN Los Angeles in November that he would rather retire than pitch for a team located outside of Southern California due to family reasons, and now that pledge will be put to the test following the December 11 trade that sent him from the Dodgers to the Marlins. Haren had an underwhelming 4.02 ERA and 145/36 K/BB ratio in 186 innings this past season for the Dodgers and a 4.67 ERA in 2013 for the Nationals, so moving him might not be all that easy for Miami. He is 34 years old.

Rotoworld blurb.

San Diego has so much deadweight salary (Maybin 2/$16, Quentin 1/$8, Alonso $2.5ish in arb1, Venable 1/$4.25), this actually kind of lines up. Smith/Medica are going to play 1B, I suspect they have to keep Maybin because who is eating that at all, and they can probably ditch half of Quentin's contract elsewhere. Leaves Alonso and Venable as pure deadweight given their other options on the team.

I think what I would do is ask for Kennedy (free agency year), Venable, and Alonso (together, they all make $16-17 million), and send them Haren, Koehler/Phelps, Dietrich, and some whatever RP, like Dyson or A ball arm. That's a big salary win for San Diego dumping $6-7 million (and still puts Loria just slightly over $70 on spending his money including Dodger/Yankee bucks), and they get some arms they control for awhile and a left handed 2B/SS/3B which they could use (and Loria hates). I don't know, maybe Marlins throw in another half decent P prospect or send Hand too. It's a downgrade giving up Kennedy for 2015 versus Haren, but they are getting better than "Latos" value for him, $6-7 million bucks in trade savings, a half decent # 4/5 SP replacement in Haren, and more controllable years with the other guys. Marlins obviously set themselves up big time with a very legitimate #3 SP in a walk year and bench major upgrade, with Morse's potential successor.

Anyways, some permutation here could work. Hope they use San Diego's dead weight money and Kennedy's impending FA to their advantage.

Not sure if the Angels match up as well, although I'd imagine if they ate a lot of CJ Wilson the Marlins would be interested in the lefty (last year was a little flukey for CJ right?). CJ is making 2/$38 15-16 which is nuts.

[thatnewguy]

I'd like Venable as the 4th OF but what would we use Alonso for other than to have another Miami guy on the roster? Also, trading all of that for guys we would just would be taking to clear the Padres books seems to me like a really bad move and one that the Marlins would never do in a million years. I understand to make this type of trade work, you need to eat some of that money and likely the $10 million from the Dodgers would cover most of that, but I think it's smarter for the Marlins to have Haren either live up to his word or just play. You aren't going to get much for him if you do trade him and I'd rather use that $10 million to either cover other holes (James Shields, anyone?) or just have Haren pitch as the 4/5.

[Valid]

I wouldn't give him that regardless of where it puts us payroll wise. $22 million a year is far too much for Shields. I think something like 5/80 is more fair.

[thatnewguy]

I was figuring Marlins would be in the ballpark of 4/$70-$82 million for Shields. I can't imagine many teams would be giving a 5-year deal to a pitcher who'll be 34 next year.

[Valid]

I was figuring Marlins would be in the ballpark of 4/$70-$82 million for Shields. I can't imagine many teams would be giving a 5-year deal to a pitcher who'll be 34 next year.

Didn't even realize he was that old. I was thinking 31, 32.

EDIT: He just turned 33, so I guess I was partially right.

[kusch]

Yeah there's no way we would go 5, especially with the free agent pitchers next year. I know it probably won't happen but hopefully Loria just goes all in and goes for Scherzer.

[lou]

I'd like Venable as the 4th OF but what would we use Alonso for other than to have another Miami guy on the roster? Also, trading all of that for guys we would just would be taking to clear the Padres books seems to me like a really bad move and one that the Marlins would never do in a million years. I understand to make this type of trade work, you need to eat some of that money and likely the $10 million from the Dodgers would cover most of that, but I think it's smarter for the Marlins to have Haren either live up to his word or just play. You aren't going to get much for him if you do trade him and I'd rather use that $10 million to either cover other holes (James Shields, anyone?) or just have Haren pitch as the 4/5.

Because Alonso is a great buy low (.250 BABIP), is controlled for 3 years cheap, lefty, is probably a really positive bench bat and insurance for Morse (Yonder has a 1.8 WAR projection), and SD has -0- need. If the Marlins can trade guys they don't need for good young assets, you do it. Likewise, Venable is a perfect 4th OF and Kennedy is an immense upgrade (who Marlins would get a comp pick for to replenish system), both of whom come off the books after the year. It's a steal for the Marlins if they could get those guys for just Haren (who is likley not going to play), Koehler/Phelps (who are each not making rotation after this year), Dietrich (who is blocked for 2 years at every position and Loria hates FWIW), and throw in relievers/prospects (who cares, they are going for it). It's all dependent on how bad SD wants to shed salary and "contend" with a really good 3rd SP versus Haren/Morrow/Johnson/others.

Regardless, just musing. But if they can get short term (Kennedy, Venable) and long term (Alonso, Kennedy draft pick) assets with Haren, Koehler/Phelps, Dietrich, and other prospects as a base package, that's a big win across the board. I think they need to be creative and somehow get Haren to San Diego. Eating some salary and giving them some young guys who are useful and Marlins don't really need is a good way to start.

Also, I agree sign Shields and a veteran OF and you accomplish the same thing, but I can't imagine they are going to add $10-25 in payroll (that range is based on if Haren retires or they give him away).

[flamarlins93]

Instead of trading for a back-up outfielder I wish they would just resign Boni. Probably would come pretty cheap and can play any outfield spot. Plus he is a switch hitter.