2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[Namaste]

[xeysz]

Dietrich is playing 2B in the Dominican Winter League. Also batting third in front of Manny Ramirez

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats....pbp&pid=518618

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats....icwin_aguwin_1

[Todd]

I believe that Hech's WAR is skewed by questionable defensive metrics. Most people in baseball seem to feel he's an excellent defensive SS, but if he was even rated as an above average SS, that WAR would go up significantly if I'm not mistaken. I'm not trying to make Hech out to be some kind of great player, but he's solid, which is much better than many people on this board make him out to be. In fact, on MLB Radio the other day they were discussing the Didi Gregorius trade and said that the Yankees hope was that he'd become a Hech-type player. On the other hand, Dietrich has done very little other than show brief signs of some power, and awful defense at 2B. I just don't get why everyone is so down on one and so bullish on the other.

Most people in baseball=the Marlins FO and the people they pay to talk about the Marlins in the TV booth and on the radio.

If there was some disconnect between the advanced statistics you might have a point, but when the advanced metrics across multiple sites, methods, and observers all come to the same exact conclusion-that being that he is not good defensively-it is hard to make the argument otherwise.

And at the end of the day, he is still so horrid offensively that even if there was a miraculous turnaround in the advanced stats as far as his defense is concerned, he would still have very little value.

But as bobbob said, the FO is absolutely in love with him, for some unexplainable reason, that he is here to stay. It sucks, but there is nothing us fans can do about it. Outside of complaining.

[rmc523]

The Giants, Yankees, nor the Marlins offered the deal. Whose this major mystery team offering him the money?

I don't think it exists.

[sports24/7]

Most people in baseball=the Marlins FO and the people they pay to talk about the Marlins in the TV booth and on the radio.

If there was some disconnect between the advanced statistics you might have a point, but when the advanced metrics across multiple sites, methods, and observers all come to the same exact conclusion-that being that he is not good defensively-it is hard to make the argument otherwise.

And at the end of the day, he is still so horrid offensively that even if there was a miraculous turnaround in the advanced stats as far as his defense is concerned, he would still have very little value.

But as bobbob said, the FO is absolutely in love with him, for some unexplainable reason, that he is here to stay. It sucks, but there is nothing us fans can do about it. Outside of complaining.

I didn't realize they gave the majority of the gold glove votes to people in the Marlins organization. Was he, or was he not a Gold Glove finalist? Also, I already mentioned how the people on MLB radio on Sirius XM were talking about the Yankees hope was that Gregorius could be a Hech-type player providing great defense. It's not just the Marlins. And while he's never going to be confused with a good hitter, calling him horrid is a little bit unfair IMO. Again, I'm not touting him as some kind of great player, but I just don't understand why so many on this board are so down on him, and by comparison seem to love DD.

[Bobbob1313]

And while he's never going to be confused with a good hitter, calling him horrid is a little bit unfair IMO. Again, I'm not touting him as some kind of great player, but I just don't understand why so many on this board are so down on him, and by comparison seem to love DD.

He's last among major-league shortstops in wRC+ over the last two seasons. Second-to-last among all players. Same goes for OPS and wOBA.

He's legitimately one of the worst hitters in baseball and he's an average at-best base runner. The one thing he may be good at, there are, at the very least, very real questions about how good he is.

And yet, whenever the team discusses their long-term plans, he's squarely in the middle of them. The criticism of him stems from the fact that the organization appears to view him as a core piece, when he may not be worth playing every day. That's the issue.

If there was any indication they were aware of how bad he is, the criticism would be a lot milder.

[nny]

2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

On top of what Bob said, I don't think anybody thinks DD is a world beater. It's that he's shown promise that he could be come an above average player. But instead of giving him a legit chance to see, they run out Solano even though he's shown no promise to be even an just average player.

[Bobbob1313]

And then there's the whole Tino Martinez thing.

It's hard not to feel like the lack of chances they've given him are the result of Loria holding a grudge.

[thatnewguy]

I like DD because of the upside, personally. He seems to be a guy who has enough pop in his bat and potential at the plate that if he hit his ceiling, he'd be a solid everyday player. My only point of contention with Hechavarria is that he may be the Marlins best infielder right now, and that is doomsday for this team's playoff hopes.
--------------------
I do wanna see me some Kike next year though. I'm very excited about that player and I would love to see that 1.1 WAR/42 games expanded to a full season.

[xeysz]

If there was some disconnect between the advanced statistics you might have a point, but when the advanced metrics across multiple sites, methods, and observers all come to the same exact conclusion-that being that he is not good defensively-it is hard to make the argument otherwise.

He was actually great defensively according to Baseball Prospectus:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...hp?cid=1658712
Hechavarria the 29th most valuable defender overall.

From their own words, they ignore zone data which iirc Marlins insiders have blamed for Hech's bad ratings:

Fielding Runs Above Average is Prospectus' individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.

The biggest difference between Fielding Runs Above Average and similar defensive metrics comes in the data and philosophy used. Whereas other metrics use zone-based fielding data, Fielding Runs Above Average ignores that data due to the numerous biases present. Fielding Runs Above Average instead focuses on play-by-play data, taking a step back and focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position. The pitcher's groundball tendencies, batter handedness, park, and base-out state all go into figuring out how many plays an average player at a position would make.

Here is an example of the Fielding Runs Above Average spectrum based upon the 2011 season-for the sake of consistency, the players featured below all play the same position (center field):

Excellent - Jacoby Ellsbury 11.6
Great - Nyjer Morgan 5.5
Average - Marlon Byrd 0.6
Poor - Roger Bernadina -5.2
Horrendous - Melky Cabrera -13.2

I'm not saying Hechavarria is as good as he is according to BP or that BP's metric is any better than the ones on B-R and FG, but the discrepancy is there.

[Bobbob1313]

Even if we go by that, he rated as a great defender in 2014 and a poor one in 2013, so there's that.

[thatnewguy]

Well to be fair--and I don't think anyone is disputing this--he went from the worst everyday player in baseball in 2013 to simply below average in 2014. Improvement!

[Big Z]

I heard on MLB Network that Rays could/should make almost everyone available including Longoria.

It probably will never happen. Plus, Rays have to pay Longo $2MM if he's traded and he's the face of the franchise over there. Longo has a team friendly contract and I would happily give them Heaney, Realmuto, etc. to acquire him, although it won't happen.

[nny]

He was actually great defensively according to Baseball Prospectus:



http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...hp?cid=1658712

Hechavarria the 29th most valuable defender overall.



From their own words, they ignore zone data which iirc Marlins insiders have blamed for Hech's bad ratings:





I'm not saying Hechavarria is as good as he is according to BP or that BP's metric is any better than the ones on B-R and FG, but the discrepancy is there.

Thanks for that link/info.

The unfortunate thing is, is that that is about a 15 run difference from what FG has. So +1.5 WAR, making him a 2 war player.

So barely an average player, and it required a high BABIP to pull it off. Fine as a starting SS since it's such a hard position to fill, but far from extension material

[HUGG]

Speaking of BABIP, we were 4th in baseball in it with 4 players in the top 30 and 5 in the top 45 (Yelich 5, Stanton 8, Ozuna 24, McGehee 29, Hech 45). We had the highest BABIP to average difference (-.063) in baseball.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/st...ay-babip/2014/


Yelich has a career .363 BABIP right now.