2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[nny]

Basically you're saying that hitters are inherently more valuable to a team that pitchers because their WAR number can be higher. That's just plain dumb.

No he isn't and you're showing a complete lack of knowledge. It's saying "here's a full season v.s. here's a third of a season."

WAR already factors what you seem to think it doesn't factor. Kershaw led the majors in WAR, as a pitcher.

The only thing matching your aggressive nature is your lack of basic sense. Now there's plenty of arguments against just using WAR (especially using one of a rookie over just 50 games), this isn't in defense of WAR. You're just both incredibly overly aggressive and overly wrong.
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Also WAR says Nate Eovaldi was our best SP by a wide margin. I think over reliance on that stat is kind of silly.

It's not really about WAR but about FIP vs ERA.

Eovaldi greatly underperformed his FIP (3.0 fWAR v.s. 0.2 bWAR). Alvarez greatly over-performed his FIP (2.2 fWAR v.s. 4.6 bWAR).
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Am I the only one that would rather have Garrett Jones (At 1y/5m) over Allen Craig (At 3y/26.5m)?

I wouldn't watch to touch Craig in our situation since it's on a multi year contract.

[Miamarlin21]

I think that is a bad trade, personally.

[dim]

Yes, I would.

ditto. Cueto+Alvarez+Cosart+Eovaldi+Koehler gets us to the All Star Break in contention until Jose comes back into the rotation and we become so much more lethal.

I have no idea what else we'd have to give up to get Cueto, but I would no doubt we willing to let go of Heaney even for a single year of Cueto if it means a better chance at a playoff appearance. Cueto has posted 2 ERA's at the Great American Ballpark. Can you imagine what kind of season he'd have at Marlins Park? He's worth a hell of a lot to us.

That being said it won't happen, but THAT is the kind of move that makes waves.

[HUGG]

I think you can make a pretty good case that Cueto's been the 2nd best SP in the NL over the last 4 seasons.


If anyone would explain to me why Andrew Heaney was throwing 90mph when he was in the bigs, I might be less inclined to deal him. I know I keep harping on that, but seriously, what the hell?

[marlinsfan24]

I think you can make a pretty good case that Cueto's been the 2nd best SP in the NL over the last 4 seasons.


If anyone would explain to me why Andrew Heaney was throwing 90mph when he was in the bigs, I might be less inclined to deal him. I know I keep harping on that, but seriously, what the hell?

I'm a big believer in Heaney going forward, but I'd be ecstatic with this trade. That's only granted they add more pieces. We are not a Cueto away from being a contender.

[thatnewguy]

Cueto in the rotation I'd be a fan of, even if that's simple "proven mlb guy vs. unproven prospect." We don't know what Heaney is, especially if he's going to have an upper 80s fastball at the big league level. That showing in June and September was very disconcerting and, small sample aside, I'm not certain he's someone we can rely on going forward. And besides, it's not like we're talking about moving him for Wade Miley. If we have to give him up for Johnny Cueto, I'm in on that.

What do you think pulls the trigger on a Bruce/Phillips + Cueto deal? Heaney and who else?

[HUGG]

Brandon Phillips
2011 .810 .300/.353/.457
2012 .750 .281/.321/.429
2013 .706 .261/.310/.396
2014 .678 .266/.306/.372

2015 $12m
2016 $13m
2017 $14m

[thatnewguy]

Donovan Solano and Derek Dietrich are your alternatives though.

[Bobbob1313]

Dietrich can probably OPS .678.

[HUGG]

Brandon Phillips is WASHED, to use the parlance of our times

[Mainge]

Dietrich can probably OPS .678.

Hugg is right doe. He won't play for us.

[HUGG]

We have a 2B in our system who had a 1.1 WAR in 42 MLB games last season.

We should trade Henderson Alvarez for him.

[lou]

uhhhh yes?

Saying a guy is more valuable "because his WAR is higher, duh!" doesn't mean crap when you're comparing a pitcher to a hitter. If you could tell me that Betts' average WAR/game was more above average for hitters/fielders than Alvarez's WAR/game was for pitchers, then maybe you would have a colorable argument that would be debatable.


But to simply point to one number and say, "this one is bigger, therefore DUH," is a major oversimplification of what those numbers mean.

Basically you're saying that hitters are inherently more valuable to a team that pitchers because their WAR number can be higher. That's just plain dumb.

NNY covered this already, but I respectively and emphatically disagree. I'm going to take a 5+ WAR club controlled middle infielder over a 2-3 WAR arbitration eligible SP any day if those are the stats end of year. Trust me, if the Marlins had Kluber, I wouldn't want to trade him for Betts/Castro. Also note - I also agree it is simplistic to discuss only 1 stat in evaluating transactions, but for quick "message board" discussion, I think it is wholly appropriate at looking at a broad sweeping stat that accounts for everything when discussing someone. Of course if you want to talk specific salary, team construction, and other factors, sure, but that's a lot.

Maybe this is better discussed globally as the idea is lost in translation of specifics.

Personally, I think if the Marlins can get a 4+ WAR club controlled infielder (even if a projected one like Betts, as he seems relatively safe) or on a nice contract like S. Castro (I suspect he reaches that threshold within a year as I believe in his bat, he's closer to a 3 WAR projection right now), I think that is worth pretty much anyone on the Marlins besides Stanton, Yelich, and Fernandez. That's not saying I don't like Alvarez, Ozuna, or Heaney (because I do like all of them a lot, and I am definitely not as down on Heaney as some and think he should be a good #3/great # 4 longterm), but getting that kind of guy up the middle is just worth trading good assets. Would be so incredibly huge for this organization to get a stud young infielder even if it costs one of the "tier 2" guys the team currently has behind the obvious big 3.

I mean, a "better" idea is to turn Cishek/Eovaldi into a young infielder, sign Chase Headley for 3-4 years at $10-12 a year, and go all in on James Shields and roll out Fernandez, Shields, Alvarez, Heaney, and Cosart for 3 years, but if the opportunity presents itself where someone like Betts or Castro is available, you just kind of have to pull that trigger and worry about fall out later. With Stanton locked up, my view has shifted to all long term sustainability and they flat out have -0- long term infielders right now and a swarm of potential # 4 starters in the minors (DeScal, German, Conley, Urena, Brice, Nicolino, and hell keep Hand and Koehler in there, etc.) where 1 or 2 is going to work out (you'd imagine), and combined with Fernandez/two of Alvarez-Heaney-Cosart (assuming they trade the other at some point for more bats)/FA Veteran whether it's Shields or whoever, that's going to be enough for the rotation long term, and an easy bridge to Kolek for another spot.

I can understand some hesitation if you think Barnes, Kike, Dietrich, or Romero is the answer by midseason for 2B (as that's where they would play Betts/Castro), but I'm just not ready to conceptualize or construct long term teams around counting on those guys, or ignore the fact in this hypothetical, they are getting another Yelich, at worst Ozuna, in the middle infield which is tremendous. Those guys working out are a bonus, and further as aforementioned, I would trust the organization developing backend starters like Koehler/etc. over one of those fringe 2B guys becoming average regulars at this point.

End of the day - it's all about getting infielders. They need to use payroll and everyone not named Fernandez, Stanton, or Yelich to get long term infielders (and only use Alvarez, Ozuna, or Heaney if truly an elite-elite infielder, which full circle, is what Betts or Castro is). They have a lot of flexibility with their pitching depth to be ballsy and go for it (assuming Loria does buy a good FA SP for 3+ years and gets some sort of veteran for the infield, which seems realistic with what they are saying so far with a $60-70 payroll).
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We have a 2B in our system who had a 1.1 WAR in 42 MLB games last season.

We should trade Henderson Alvarez for him.

If you think he's the answer, sure.

But as said above, if they can get an elite infield option who is controlled reasonably for years, they have pitching depth to go get someone if need be.

Gotta get more infielders to grow with Stanton/Fernandez/Yelich/Cosart/Heaney(lets be realistic, they likely won't trade the best lefty)/Ozuna/etc

[emkayseven]

@jonmorosi
Sources: Marlins have inquired to Tigers about availability of David Price or Rick Porcello. Talks are not serious right now.

[Big Z]

Winter Meetings is going to be fun. Seems like they're scoping the market for the best value.