2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[HUGG]

You guys know that these players have their own say too, right? At the end of the day the player does whatever the hell they feel is right. The agent will only advise them.

Most players are well aware of their agents philosophies before they choose one. They hired Scott Boras for a reason.

[nny]

The point is is that Ozuna hasn't even been mentioned as "possible extension candidate"

Yeah, his K/BB is concerning in terms of safeness. But his power could easily explode and then you're looking at huge arbitration #s. And that's from a guy who plays plus defense in CF. He very much should be a candidate, even if Boras makes it unlikely to happen.

[thatnewguy]

The point is is that Ozuna hasn't even been mentioned as "possible extension candidate"

To be fair, neither has Alvarez.

Eh, it does seem like the Boras guys will be long shots. That new TV deal better be sweet, cause this could all come crashing before it even starts.

[lou]

The point is is that Ozuna hasn't even been mentioned as "possible extension candidate"

Yeah, his K/BB is concerning in terms of safeness. But his power could easily explode and then you're looking at huge arbitration #s. And that's from a guy who plays plus defense in CF. He very much should be a candidate, even if Boras makes it unlikely to happen.

For me, it's I have 100% confidence Yelich is a stud in 5-6 years.

I don't know if I can say that with Ozuna with the BB/K, and regardless of the amazing defense thus far, he was projected as a corner outfielder so is he a sure fire stay in CF guy 5-7 years from now? With two locked up corner outfielders (as you imagine they will eventually keep Yelich for a long time), kind of dangerous.

Of course, if he hits .270, with 35 HR, and a 10% BB / 22 % K rate next year, and everyone becomes unanimous he can stay at CF until he is 35, my opinion will change, but I just don't see that top end upside here with his approach, despite the obvious power tool he has. There is really nothing wrong keeping him through arbitration and if he burns you in 5th and 6th year, so be it. That was worth the risk in not extending him and have him go all Marcus Thames or Craig Monroe on everyone (those are acknowledgly not great examples by I always revert to those old Tigers teams when I think about guys who hit a lot of bombs absolutely falling apart. You get it).

If the price is right, sure. But I don't think he's a $55-60 million player right now, and that's the price of his buyout. Yelich, give it to him today. Ozuna, I'd be real fearful of it falling apart in 4-5 years and then you're looking at some $8-12 million payroll bombs to deal with.

I'm just all in on Yelich and Alvarez, next offseason Fernandez, Ozuna, Cosart, Heaney, Eovaldi, or anyone else who decides to emerge.

[nny]

Yelich is the no brainer. It's not "Ozuna or Yelich," but is Ozuna worth an extension. I understand your points against him but his defense makes him valuable and I think he was a "corner outfielder" because of his arm.

But waiting a year is definitely not a bad idea. Still 5 years of club control. Though I think he'll be super 2 next year so that kind of stinks.

[Mainge]

Most players are well aware of their agents philosophies before they choose one. They hired Scott Boras for a reason.

Like I said before, you don't hire Scott Boras and then tell him to get you a team friendly discount.

[Namaste]

Boras got Jacob Turner a $4.3 million signing bonus out of high school.

4.3


million



He good.

[kusch]

Boras got Jacob Turner a $4.3 million signing bonus out of high school.

4.3


million



He good.

I completely forgot about that guy.

[lou]

Yelich is the no brainer. It's not "Ozuna or Yelich," but is Ozuna worth an extension. I understand your points against him but his defense makes him valuable and I think he was a "corner outfielder" because of his arm.

But waiting a year is definitely not a bad idea. Still 5 years of club control. Though I think he'll be super 2 next year so that kind of stinks.

I mean, if he is the next Gordon/Heyward defensive outfielder he'll pay for himself, but are we that confident he can do that for 6 years in CF, and even if the bat drops, at least Chris Young it and hit 20+ bombs even if the avg/obp suck?

I like that guy on a buyout, I just think it's hard to project that much right now. And like I said, if he's a corner OF in 4 years, Marlins are kind of screwed ala present day Dodgers.

[Madman81]

Boras got Jacob Turner a $4.3 million signing bonus out of high school.

4.3


million



He good.

and clauses that got Turner fast tracked to the majors, which may have had a role in him becoming worthless.

maybe disappearing velocity played a part, too.

[Jay]

I mean, if he is the next Gordon/Heyward defensive outfielder he'll pay for himself, but are we that confident he can do that for 6 years in CF, and even if the bat drops, at least Chris Young it and hit 20+ bombs even if the avg/obp suck?

I like that guy on a buyout, I just think it's hard to project that much right now. And like I said, if he's a corner OF in 4 years, Marlins are kind of screwed ala present day Dodgers.

I don't think the idea that he becomes a corner OF should impact signing him since we currently have no first baseman and would be able to shift Yelich or Stanton there. Also if Yelich and Ozuna are both signed to team friendly contracts and we end up with 3 star corner OFers and have a 1st baseman, you can easily trade one for some other need.

[Bobbob1313]

Gordon/Heyward

[lou]

I don't think the idea that he becomes a corner OF should impact signing him since we currently have no first baseman and would be able to shift Yelich or Stanton there. Also if Yelich and Ozuna are both signed to team friendly contracts and we end up with 3 star corner OFers and have a 1st baseman, you can easily trade one for some other need.

I am not that cavalier of telling a gold glove winning LF or a guy with the largest contract in sports history they need to move to 1B. I don't think it's a consideration. If it naturally happens because knees blow out or whatever, sure, but they absolutely need to account for the possibility of having 3 corner OF signed to long term deals. They can't have that happen.

Of course, this could all be moot as they and/or scouting community can consider him a CF for the next 10 years, but I just haven't seen that one yet. He's obviously great out there, but I'd like to know that answer as it helps with the question "do you buy him out" big time.

Regardless, still think it's a next year thing either way. Could be a Super2, but there is still savings on a 6 year deal there if need be.

[Jay]

I am not that cavalier of telling a gold glove winning LF or a guy with the largest contract in sports history they need to move to 1B. I don't think it's a consideration. If it naturally happens because knees blow out or whatever, sure, but they absolutely need to account for the possibility of having 3 corner OF signed to long term deals. They can't have that happen.

Of course, this could all be moot as they and/or scouting community can consider him a CF for the next 10 years, but I just haven't seen that one yet. He's obviously great out there, but I'd like to know that answer as it helps with the question "do you buy him out" big time.

Regardless, still think it's a next year thing either way. Could be a Super2, but there is still savings on a 6 year deal there if need be.

I guess I don't agree with you here given the current depth in the organization.

I'm not that familiar with the exact writing of sports contracts but I would believe that most of them don't specify that the player only play a certain position. They also don't allow players to demand trades. Meaning you could force a player to play out of their natural position or be in breach of contract by not playing. I would assume this would allow their respective organization not pay the contract for the time period they are refusing to play and they would be restricted from signing a new contract with another team in the league. So essentially I see it as it's the team's way or you better have a skill outside of playing baseball to make some money.

So the potential problem is the team would have 3 players signed longterm that would best slot in corner outfield roles. And if that situation arises currently organizational depth would allow one of them to transition to first base or stay in center despite being subpar defensively. Either way we are most likely looking at better production at either position than other in house options. So why would we not try to optimize the value of the contracts?

I'm not very familiar with defensive statistics but b-r lists Vernon Wells as a comparison for Ozuna so I'm going to look at him to compare value as a player. Wells also has a wide range of UZR/150 from -21.7 to 11.4 for CF in seasons where he logged more than 800 innings according to fangraphs. I've produced the table below with those years.

Season	Player	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	WAR	UZR/150
2002	Wells	4.20%	13.10%	0.183	0.283	0.275	0.305	0.457	0.762	1.4	-6.3
2003	Wells	5.70%	10.90%	0.233	0.318	0.317	0.359	0.55	0.909	3.9	-19.5
2004	Wells	8.60%	14.10%	0.2	0.285	0.272	0.337	0.472	0.809	4.1	11.4
2005	Wells	6.90%	12.70%	0.194	0.27	0.269	0.32	0.463	0.783	2.8	2.9
2006	Wells	8.00%	13.30%	0.239	0.307	0.303	0.357	0.542	0.899	5.7	8.2
2007	Wells	7.60%	13.90%	0.158	0.262	0.245	0.304	0.402	0.706	1.8	6
2008	Wells	6.20%	9.90%	0.197	0.293	0.3	0.343	0.496	0.839	1.2	-21.7
2009	Wells	7.00%	12.60%	0.14	0.279	0.26	0.311	0.4	0.711	-0.1	-18.4
2010	Wells	7.70%	13.00%	0.242	0.272	0.273	0.331	0.515	0.846	3.7	-7.8
2014	Ozuna	6.70%	26.80%	0.186	0.337	0.269	0.317	0.455	0.772	3.7	0.8

So if we look at these stats, we see that in these years Wells only had a negative WAR once and it was in his 2nd worst defensive and 2nd worst offensive season. So if Ozuna is going to remain constant with the bat, he will still remain valuable in CF even if his defensive ability is lower than this season indicates. Therefore his ability to stick in CF shouldn't come into the equation of signing him as he could stick at the position while becoming a defensive liability there.

I think whether you offer him a long term contract down to if you think he will develop offensively. Personally I think he will develop offensively in the long term but wouldn't be surprised to see him regress next season. I'm not saying that we need to lock him up this offseason but the organization should at least try to lock him up next year if his offensive production remains constant.

[MiamiHomer]

Adam LaRoche signed with the White Sox for 2 years 25 mil