2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[lou]

I mean, I posted in the other thread how you could be a 100m team for the next four years without an issue. 2017 really isn't a problem and shouldn't be $125m, just ditch the rising cost of BP arms. 2018 is the only possible issue, but 1) it's still doable 2) when you're winning 90+ games for three years strait, you can afford to raise payroll to the ~$120 range from the ~$100 range.

They can easily go and improve at 1B, 2B, 3B, and splurge on SP and be fine for payroll the next several years. Not "$70m" fine, but "MLB average" fine.

Yea. I just think the present day splurge is get one of the top 6 free agents who are really clear, and still afford in $70 land a $8-10 guy, and a $3-5 guy, with the caveat that Cishek, Eovaldi, and at least someone from Jones/Salty/Baker/Dunn needs to be traded off for a good young infielder.

2017 could be crazy if they don't buyout Fernandez, Yelich, Alvarez, and Ozuna/Cosart/whoever hits projections and is costly.

But I agree in principle, pretty good shape, they just can't take more than 1 big contract on realistically without breaking $100 by 2017.

[nny]

If you're starting at $85m, the team you have is going to be better built to start with. So, yeah, you can go out in July and get someone to push payroll from 60-85, but you're also expecting them to make that big impact in 2 months. You're limiting the impact those guys can make from the jump.

It's not like we're sitting here wondering what the team's holes are. We know what they are. They have a top-8 outfield in baseball, they have plenty of depth in the rotation and the bullpen, and they have arguably the worst infield in baseball. They're not going to get to July and have some big surprise hole they need to fill.

If this team goes into the season with a projected 5 WAR infield, which is legitimately what they're looking at even if they add LaRoche, I don't see how they compete for the playoffs.
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And, uh, if $85 million is the absolute most they can afford to spend, then I don't know how this market can support a major-league franchise.

Like, if one season of $90 million is untenable after the team spent roughly $150 million less than the average team on payroll over the last two seasons, then I don't know how this can be a sustainable enterprise.

Yes on every point. We are a top-5 OF and top-5 pitching staff and a bottom-5 IF. Projecting 5 WAR out of that bunch is still optimistic.

We KNOW what we need. We have SEVERAL means by which to do it, with FA and trades. And with just how small payroll is, it should be FA.

This team is still an embarrassment if they roll out a sub-70m payroll with just how good everything but the IF is.

[Bobbob1313]

I don't see how a defensive 3B with mediocre bat adds more value than a power bat, if its either or. 2/24 for LaRoche would be great

Because value is value.

also, LaRoche can't play everyday.

[nny]

Lowrieand have Lowrie repeat last year

I'm not a big Lowrie fan (I just think he's the best option on the market for us at 2B), but even in his "terrible" year, he was worth 2 WAR at 2b.

Now, I'm perfectly content rolling out Kike/Dietrich/even Solano at 2b and hoping one steps up. But that's only if we upgrade 3B AND 1B.

[emkayseven]

I don't see how a defensive 3B with mediocre bat adds more value than a power bat, if its either or. 2/24 for LaRoche would be great

because of what it's replacing

LaRoche needs to platoon and is replacing Jones, who needs to platoon. It's an upgrade, but not a huge one.

McGehee/Headley is way better (defensively and offensively) than LaRoche/McGehee

[lou]

I don't see how a defensive 3B with mediocre bat adds more value than a power bat, if its either or. 2/24 for LaRoche would be great

Because the extra 20 runs LaRoche will produce offensively over Headley are not worth the extra 35 runs Headley prevents in the field.

Bottom line bottom line. (I also made those numbers up just to make a point. I don't think anyone argues Headley is a better player, but just saying).

[Bobbob1313]

36 games started vs. LHP last season.

[nny]

Not to excerpt your post, but if they trade Heaney, Cishek, and take your pick of 2-3 more decent minor league arms (let's just say Urena and Conley), there is NO WAY they don't get Castro and Valbuena (and probably a third prospect) from the Cubs. Heaney and Cishek are huge for Theo right now, let alone some good tier B arms that could turn into plus relievers or backend SP.

Castro is a for sure 3+ WAR player (at 2B, he'd be fine there), Valbuena has a three year average of 2 WAR (120 games a year, he is heavy RHP splits). Payroll increases just $2 million, and have years of awesome for Castro and probably an easy 2-3 year sign for Valbuena who at worst, is a good bench player on a contender.

Keep Eovaldi and Dunn, sign Shields/best starter available, and that infield is really rocking with McGehee the primary 1B, and Baker coming in for Valbuena at 1B against lefties (McGehee shfit back).

I just think it's insane to spend on LaRoche when they can dip into their SP depth and Cishek, go out and get a big time young player to control for years, and then use all the money on a veteran SP. No way the Cubs don't take Heaney and Cishek as top 1-2 players for Castro and some loose parts.

There is your 5 WAR. Sucks to not have a lefty in rotation (Rodon!!!!! Mad!!!!), but what can you do.

I'm always behind when you post that scenario, but how many other teams do we really match up with that can fill so many holes (serious)?

[Mainge]

LaRoche is going to be 35 and is already not an everyday player. He could turn into full-blown Garret Jones any minute.

If the other options are out the window and it's a short deal then okay, but there's a chance he's not good. He's already had one season that should make you raise your eyebrows.

[lou]

I'm always behind when you post that scenario, but how many other teams do we really match up with that can fill so many holes (serious)?

Boston has a lot of stuff. Go big for Zobrist, although I think they still think they will contend with that very cool 1-5 staff? Maybe the Mariners they have two young middle infielders and some decent prospects.

But I really think it's a non-issue as Heaney is the lefty, he won't be moved. Fernandez, Alvarez, Cosart, and Heaney is their dream rotation, and churning that 5th spot.

Guys like Valbuena should be the target. He is outrageously perfect, easy sign, and won't even cost Koehler.

[lou]

Point taken, but how much value does protecting Stanton in the lineup add? If we can hit 85 we should sign both and call it a day.

I think Stanton proved last year he really doesn't need protection.

But realistically, a high OBP 2B (Fernandez cuban guy) and moving Yelich to 2nd spot I think is better protection than a "LaRoche" behind him.

Make him hit with more guys on.

[tjfla]

I know the Cuban guys have not been declared FA but don't forget there are 3 or 4 2B who will be coming over next year. They have said to have interest in 2 of them.

As for Laroche they seem to be thinking the same thing which is they want to meet with Sandoval. They either wanna go with high priced player and lower SP(Sandoval/Ubaldo,Bud Norris) or lower priced player and high priced SP(Laroche/Shields)

First tho they need to lose either Jones or Salty and the RP to "free" up the cash

[Mainge]

LaRoche's down year in 2013 was equal to Garrett Jones best year in his career. I don't see him falling off a cliff to Garrett Jones levels over the next two years, maybe I'm looking at the wrong set of stats.

Not quite but that's not the point. My point is the Marlins should be weary of throwing big money at him. If payroll is going to be $60-70m, I think there's better ways to spend money on a guy who's at the age where it can go fast.

Like spending 20% of our payroll on a guy that turns into ~775 ops first baseman that can't play against lefties would be terrible.

[nny]

I'm still on the Mike Morse bandwagon.

-two years younger
-lot cheaper
-every day player, hits both hands at very similar clips
-his WAR looks terrible because he's a bad fielding OF. He's rather close to average at 1B. If you assume those defensive numbers and he played only 1B last year, he'd have been 2 WAR in limited PA (2.7 WAR at 650 PA). 1.6 WAR/2.4 WAR per 650 PA in 2012.

He was super bad in 2013, but the only bad peripheral he had then was an incredibly low BABIP. I definitely think he can be a ~110-120 OPS+ bat for us the next couple years.

[Mainge]

#MorseHorse