2014-2015 Marlins Offseason Rumors

[Bobbob1313]

I mean, they've got enough of a strong base to get creative and put together an 85-win team at $60 million. That would still make me mad.

Because that means they could pretty easily put together a 90-win team and still be 28th in payroll on opening day.

That's what's so frustrating about it. It's not "they can't be competitive at $60 million." They certainly can be, but they need to pretty much nail every move and have everything to go right to get to, say, 88 wins.

What's frustrating is, if they just operated like literally every other team in baseball, they could put themselves in position to make the playoffs. Not, make the playoffs if everything goes right and they get lucky. But be a favorite for a playoff spot.

[lou]

I think that's the big thing. We are easily one of the top teams on paper with a 90m payroll. This wouldn't be 2012 with a huge payroll and projections of a .500 team. We'd be 90+ wins, easy

Yea I agree, but then 2017 becomes a $125 million team, and 2018 straight up over $150 million. Could be dangerous if there are injuries or guys fall apart.

They can't "just go for it" with 3 major free agents for a 2015-2017 peak range, especially when Fernandez isn't healthy and Cosart/Heaney/Yelich/Ozuna are all not at their peaks.

Not saying do nothing, but 1 major guy (Shields is obviously my favorite), 2 moderate infield veterans on 1-2 year deals, trading at least Cishek for a young infielder to help with cash and longevity, is a huge influx of $30 million in veterans and young players. That'll make a significant impact and big upgrade to the team. They can do it for $65-70.

Spending more than that starts getting very risky. They aren't quite there yet with a three year period of "fuck everything, go for it." Maybe in a year or two if Cosart/Heaney/Ozuna/whoever really busts out to compliment Stanton, a healthy Fernandez, Yelich, Alvarez, and "Shields".

But Stanton expectations need to be tempered slightly. He's here a long time. It's more worth building a super power around him age 28-32 with Fernandez, Yelich, and whoever else really rocking, than try to blow a load in 2015.

[Bobbob1313]

Also, if the infield next year is Saltalamacchia-LaRoche-Kike Hernandez/Dietrich-Hech-McGehee, that's a massive failure.

I mean, really, if the corners are LaRoche and McGehee, that's a massive failure.

[tjfla]

As of now they are shopping-Cishek/Dunn/Jones/Salty and are looking for pretty much nothing in return except for Cishek. They are looking to lose salary

with Cishek they are telling teams that they will have to take Jones OR Salty(Prefer Jones) with that money and spot going to Laroche. Teams are waiting on Robertson tho before they commit to Cishek

Dunn teams are looking at closer especially since Zach Duke just got 5 million a year. Baltimore and whoever misses on Andrew Miller are suitors


Don't be suprised if u see Toronto making an offer for Cishek/Jones and maybe even Dunn if they miss out on Miller

[lou]

I mean, they've got enough of a strong base to get creative and put together an 85-win team at $60 million. That would still make me mad.

Because that means they could pretty easily put together a 90-win team and still be 28th in payroll on opening day.

That's what's so frustrating about it. It's not "they can't be competitive at $60 million." They certainly can be, but they need to pretty much nail every move and have everything to go right to get to, say, 88 wins.

What's frustrating is, if they just operated like literally every other team in baseball, they could put themselves in position to make the playoffs. Not, make the playoffs if everything goes right and they get lucky. But be a favorite for a playoff spot.

Let's also be honest, free agency kind of sucks this year.

They need to go out and overpay Shields on 4 years. They can afford it, even if it means a lesser bat than LaRoche or Headley. It's more important, and they need to dip into the pitching depth and trade for young hitters.

If they look good in July, they have stuff to trade (they may have 2 MLB ready SP to trade and wouldn't impact Fernandez, Alvarez, "Shields," Cosart, Heaney) and can take on contracts. A straight up great scenario.

[emkayseven]

28 teams ahead of us in payroll and only 10 made the playoffs.

"they need to pretty much nail every move and have everything to go right" is universal, regardless of the payroll. We could go out and sign Shields, Sandoval, and Lowrie and have Lowrie repeat last year, Sandoval show up 50 pounds overweight, Henderson regress, Jose delayed, etc.

I disagree with you saying that it's harder to make it happen on $60 million because you have less margin for error. I think it's harder on $85 million for the same reason. If $85 is a top number and they open at 85 and something goes wrong, they have 0 room in the budget for improvement. That's where you get the Carlos Lees of the world. Whereas, if you're operating at a comfortable number, you have the ability to go out and improve something if/when something goes wrong.

Ideally you'd like to see 85-90 be comfortable and 100-110 be a top tier, but that's not happening yet, not without the TV deal.
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Lou beat me to the sentiment, but yeah

[Bobbob1313]

28 teams ahead of us in payroll and only 10 made the playoffs.

"they need to pretty much nail every move and have everything to go right" is universal, regardless of the payroll. We could go out and sign Shields, Sandoval, and Lowrie and have Lowrie repeat last year, Sandoval show up 50 pounds overweight, Henderson regress, Jose delayed, etc.

I disagree with you saying that it's harder to make it happen on $60 million because you have less margin for error. I think it's harder on $85 million for the same reason. If $85 is a top number and they open at 85 and something goes wrong, they have 0 room in the budget for improvement. That's where you get the Carlos Lees of the world. Whereas, if you're operating at a comfortable number, you have the ability to go out and improve something if/when something goes wrong.

Ideally you'd like to see 85-90 be comfortable and 100-110 be a top tier, but that's not happening yet, not without the TV deal.

If you're starting at $85m, the team you have is going to be better built to start with. So, yeah, you can go out in July and get someone to push payroll from 60-85, but you're also expecting them to make that big impact in 2 months. You're limiting the impact those guys can make from the jump.

It's not like we're sitting here wondering what the team's holes are. We know what they are. They have a top-8 outfield in baseball, they have plenty of depth in the rotation and the bullpen, and they have arguably the worst infield in baseball. They're not going to get to July and have some big surprise hole they need to fill.

If this team goes into the season with a projected 5 WAR infield, which is legitimately what they're looking at even if they add LaRoche, I don't see how they compete for the playoffs.
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And, uh, if $85 million is the absolute most they can afford to spend, then I don't know how this market can support a major-league franchise.

Like, if one season of $90 million is untenable after the team spent roughly $150 million less than the average team on payroll over the last two seasons, then I don't know how this can be a sustainable enterprise.

[lou]

If this team goes into the season with a projected 5 WAR infield, which is legitimately what they're looking at even if they add LaRoche, I don't see how they compete for the playoffs.

Not to excerpt your post, but if they trade Heaney, Cishek, and take your pick of 2-3 more decent minor league arms (let's just say Urena and Conley), there is NO WAY they don't get Castro and Valbuena (and probably a third prospect) from the Cubs. Heaney and Cishek are huge for Theo right now, let alone some good tier B arms that could turn into plus relievers or backend SP.

Castro is a for sure 3+ WAR player (at 2B, he'd be fine there), Valbuena has a three year average of 2 WAR (120 games a year, he is heavy RHP splits). Payroll increases just $2 million, and have years of awesome for Castro and probably an easy 2-3 year sign for Valbuena who at worst, is a good bench player on a contender.

Keep Eovaldi and Dunn, sign Shields/best starter available, and that infield is really rocking with McGehee the primary 1B, and Baker coming in for Valbuena at 1B against lefties (McGehee shfit back).

I just think it's insane to spend on LaRoche when they can dip into their SP depth and Cishek, go out and get a big time young player to control for years, and then use all the money on a veteran SP. No way the Cubs don't take Heaney and Cishek as top 1-2 players for Castro and some loose parts.

There is your 5 WAR. Sucks to not have a lefty in rotation (Rodon!!!!! Mad!!!!), but what can you do.

[Bobbob1313]

If they have a $70 million payroll, LaRoche shouldn't even be in the discussion. There's no way that makes sense. It would be actively dumb.

[emkayseven]

I'm pissed about Rodon too.

A Starlin trade makes too much sense for both sides, so it won't happen.

[Nick]

Starlin the Marlin.

Too good to be true.

[HUGG]

I think it's weird that now we believe words coming from Samson.

I don't buy that that number is some hard number they won't budge on. I think that's the answer you give when you have certain FA targets and won't (and shouldn't) spend the money just to spend it if you don't get them. I think it's entirely possible the payroll is under $70m next season. But they're interested in LaRoche and Shields and then Samson makes some weird comment about Pablo. Those contradict the number he gave.

He shouldn't have answered the question at all, but it's better than saying we're gonna be running a $90m payroll next year and then the guys we want just choose to go somewhere else and it's $60m and Jeff Passan's are writing MARLINS LIE TO FANS AGAIN stories.

[Bobbob1313]

I think that line of logic is super-duper flawed.

[emkayseven]

ok.

[HUGG]

I mean, believe me, if we're at $70m in 3 years, I'm gonna throw a fit. I just don't have a problem with making sure the money is spent in effective ways. I'd rather have a $70m payroll this year than $85m with $15m of it going to Adam LaRoche.


LaRoche is a fine player, but he's going to get too much money.
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Unless that $15m is a one year deal, then fine.