Fluff Piece: Lester and Fernandez Head to Head

[Namaste]

The feeling amongst most Marlins fans is, "damn, the team is playing really well, imagine if Fernandez wasn't hurt. They would have a decent shot at clinching the WC with Fernandez."

So how does Lester stack up against our injured ace?

Setting aside what it does to the team next year and in 2019, let's discuss what Lester would hypothetically do for a team in a 11 year playoff drought.

[Miamarlin21]

It would give them a great left-handed starter that they really need.

[Namaste]

Thanks, buddy.

I'm gon go look up some WARs and xFIPS, doe.

Common lou and bobbob and Hugg one time.

[Beef]

Whatever it would do for the same exact team that hasn't missed the playoffs 11 straight years

[Ralph]

They don't have what it takes to get him.

[marlinsfan24]

The Marlins would have to literally trade away their entire farm to get Lester. I'll pass. Even with Lester, the team has major holes. If they were one player away, I'd understand making a run, but even with Jose, this is a team on the outside looking in.

[Namaste]

How many wins would Lester be worth in August and September?
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I feel like the Marlins would not have to."literally trade away their entire farm system" to get Lester.

[Mainge]

If we acquire Lester, do we get to retroactively apply all of his starts to our season from April to now? That would help a ton. Two thirds of the season is gone though. He helps, but at the end of the day it's like ~12 starts.

If we could set aside all of the negatives of acquiring him, it would make sense to do it. But since these trades don't happen in a vacuum, it doesn't make sense at all.

Save the assets to make the rental deal when we have an actual chance.

[Ralph]

Now change Lester to Price. Give Tampa Heaney and everything else in the minors.
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Lester scratched from tomorrow's start

[Namaste]

Lester 1.54 ERA since June 1st.
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Lester 2014 WAR: 4.6

Fernandez 2013 WAR: 4.2

[kusch]

I honestly would give up Heaney and whoever else to get an extra year of control for price.

[Bobbob1313]

So, you assume he's worth 2-ish wins over the final one-third of the season, over a replacement pitcher.

But that's imperfect, because he's increasing your chances of winning each if those starts to some small degree.

It's probably fair to say Lester saves you 20-25 runs over Jacob Turner for 12-13 starts. If you think this is a .500 team as constructed, that could be worth 3-4 marginal wins.

[Erick]

Jon Lester would be here for two months. The risk is not worth the potential reward.

I would love to see the front office try to improve, but there are other ways to do it.

[HUGG]

Playoff appearances are so valuable, especially to a franchise like this. If I felt like Lester would get us in, I'd do it without hesitation. Even knowing he would be gone at the end of the year, it's worth it.

He'd increase our chances for sure, but I still think we'd have to get awfully lucky to get in. I couldn't justify giving up what it would take to get him.

[marlinsfan24]

Anyone would trade Lester for Yelich? I'd never ever consider doing that. Trading Yelich would create a even bigger hole on the team.