Postgame: Redmond Avoids Loss By Not Pitching To Longoria, Marlins Win 5-4

[HUGG]

Mainge is a butt.


Every time you think this team is about to go into the tailspin that ends the season, they end up within a game of first again.
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Also, we're an .800 ballclub when Donovan Solano starts.

[Mainge]

big butt

[Namaste]

There's always a butt

[Mainge]

Cishek had issued 7 walks all year before last night's game. He had already issued one. What were the odds he'd walk another guy when he hasn't walked two people in a game all season? And he unintentionally walked 2 people in a game only twice last season. So given who was on the mound I'd actually guess a force out is more likely than a walk.

A force out that can't find be made at first is a rare thing. I don't agree at all.

[nny]

What were the odds he'd walk another guy when he hasn't walked two people in a game all season?

8.9%, his career BB%. Because that's the odds that he walks a hitter. Him walking somebody earlier doesn't mean he then has a less likely chance of walking another guy, that's bad logic. In fact, if anything, it could mean his odds of walking somebody is higher than normal because he has shown a lack of control so far.

[nny]

You think that because he walked somebody before, his odds of walking another batter drop from what his odds normally are?

[emkayseven]

what sandro said...normal probability/odds don't really apply here

[Mainge]

I think that better serves Nny's point then yours, though. He had already shown he didn't have his best command with that walk earlier. Maybe he cleaned it up, maybe it was still a thing.

Regardless, as I said earlier, I don't think it was a huge deal either way. Lets just all admit I'm right and move on.

[nny]

I certainly agree with that, but with so many unknown factors (not even with just him, but who's hitting, the umpire, etc) I think his career walk percent would be an okay indicator to use for probability.

However, as Mainge pointed out, my point was that because he walked somebody doesn't mean he's less likely to walk somebody in that outing - in fact, if anything, that would probably mean he's more likely to walk somebody.