How Great Was Jose Fernandez Tonight in the Marlins 9-0 Win Over the Braves?

[Mainge]

:D

That's my face after hearing that. A friend of mine has season tickets really close to behind home plate and has two extra tickets so me and my dad can come along with them (I just got home from UCF today). I was looking forward just to see a Marlins game live. To hear it's a Fernandez start is awesome. If it's Kershaw vs. Fernandez, WOW. The only game I've been to where I've ever been awestruck at the pitching matchup was back in 2004 when I saw a Dontrelle Willis vs. Randy Johnson (back when he was a D-Back) game live. Kershaw/Fernandez would far surpass that.
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EDIT: Didn't see Kershaw was hurt. Dodgers have enough good starting pitching that any matchup with Jose will be fun.

I think I'm probably going as well. We should meet up so I can look the infamous Dim in the eye.

[BigGameFish]

How cheap have tickets been resold for on stub hub this season?

[lou]

Time to sign him for 7 years Loria.

Bumgarner and Sale basically got 7/$58 deal (last two years are options, give or take a million). Kershaw signed a $19 million deal to buyout his first two years of arbitration, then signed the silly 7/$215 extension.

You have to imagine Fernandez signs a 7 year deal in $70-75 range two full seasons from arbitration, split up the money however you like and make the last year a club option. Give him nice top 3 cy young escalators to throw in a few extra bucks. Guarantees one extra year versus the two other young aces who have been bought out, and increased the overall pay an extra $12+ million (over 20% raise).

It's easy and a no brainer. I don't want to imagine what this would look like if they allow Fernandez to get to arbitration. Hell, I don't really want to look at this after the season at this point if he has a sub 1 whip and 250Ks.

[Swifty]

Time to sign him for 7 years Loria.

Bumgarner and Sale basically got 7/$58 deal (last two years are options, give or take a million). Kershaw signed a $19 million deal to buyout his first two years of arbitration, then signed the silly 7/$215 extension.

You have to imagine Fernandez signs a 7 year deal in $70-75 range two full seasons from arbitration, split up the money however you like and make the last year a club option. Give him nice top 3 cy young escalators to throw in a few extra bucks. Guarantees one extra year versus the two other young aces who have been bought out, and increased the overall pay an extra $12+ million (over 20% raise).

It's easy and a no brainer. I don't want to imagine what this would look like if they allow Fernandez to get to arbitration. Hell, I don't really want to look at this after the season at this point if he has a sub 1 whip and 250Ks.

Lincecum would be a reasonable comp for him in arbitration. Based on his age, he's even outperforming the common sense comps like King Felix. You figure his reps have to believe he'll have an easy time with a $10 / $15 / $22 schedule, maybe even $12 / $19 / $25. Buying him out will be tough if it doesn't happen now.

Ah well, he'll look great in pinstripes in a few years.

[Fritz]

At least he's almost 30 and won't last beyond his cheap years.

/MK7

[emkayseven]

I feel like there's zero shot at this happening. They're never had success with pitcher contracts, they've shied away from giving them in general, even for someone like Dontrelle who was as much the face of the franchise as anyone.

There's a better chance they sign Stanton.

[lou]

Lincecum would be a reasonable comp for him in arbitration. Based on his age, he's even outperforming the common sense comps like King Felix. You figure his reps have to believe he'll have an easy time with a $10 / $15 / $22 schedule, maybe even $12 / $19 / $25. Buying him out will be tough if it doesn't happen now.

Ah well, he'll look great in pinstripes in a few years.

Yep. They need to do this now and get ahead of the tidal wave. Not after the year anymore (which I thought was safe before the season), now. His performance speaks for itself, let alone his like ability. He is no fluke and the production isn't going to change.

I don't understand not signing Fernandez right now. This would be a Cabrera level fuck up. I can understand Stanton, outfielder, some knee issues, maybe the Ks catch up, solid young OF depth on team. I don't agree, but I get it.

No excuses with this kid. This is a top 5 pitcher in baseball next 7 years, if not top 2.

Right now. That decision to not call him up 3 weeks into the season last year is really hurting them if they don't sign him too.
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I feel like there's zero shot at this happening. They're never had success with pitcher contracts, they've shied away from giving them in general, even for someone like Dontrelle who was as much the face of the franchise as anyone.

There's a better chance they sign Stanton.

I 100% disagree with the Stanton line. Fernandez's (hypothetical) 7 year contract would be valued at, literally, $100 million less than what Stanton is likely due.

Pitcher be damned, it's the bottom line and Fernandez is an astronomically cheaper asset right now.

I am going to say the Marlins sign Fernandez sometime before the start of next season to a very realistic deal, and they go to arbitration 2 more years with Stanton and take the draft picks.

[emkayseven]

Yep. They need to do this now and get ahead of the tidal wave. Not after the year anymore (which I thought was safe before the season), now. His performance speaks for itself, let alone his like ability. He is no fluke and the production isn't going to change.

I don't understand not signing Fernandez right now. This would be a Cabrera level fuck up. I can understand Stanton, outfielder, some knee issues, maybe the Ks catch up, solid young OF depth on team. I don't agree, but I get it.

No excuses with this kid. This is a top 5 pitcher in baseball next 7 years, if not top 2.

Right now. That decision to not call him up 3 weeks into the season last year is really hurting them if they don't sign him too.
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I 100% disagree with the Stanton line. Fernandez's (hypothetical) 7 year contract would be valued at, literally, $100 million less than what Stanton is likely due.

Pitcher be damned, it's the bottom line and Fernandez is an astronomically cheaper asset right now.

I am going to say the Marlins sign Fernandez sometime before the start of next season to a very realistic deal, and they go to arbitration 2 more years with Stanton and take the draft picks.

With the rate at which pitchers are breaking down nowadays, the fact that they have no clue what his conditioning/workload was like before age 15, the track record of similar young pitchers (Gooden, Wood, Prior), and the fact that they still control him for a few years, I can see their view on Fernandez. Like you with Stanton, I don't agree with it, but I get it.

With the way he fills the stadium and gets the team exposure there are plenty of off-field reasons to do it too.

Of course, a normal team wouldn't be having this discussion - they'd have signed them both a long time ago.

[Bobbob1313]

Ah well, he'll look great in pinstripes in a few years.

Didn't you say you were a Yankees fan now anyways? That works out perfectly.
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With the rate at which pitchers are breaking down nowadays

I'm not sure this is actually significant. Seems like bad luck to me.

Like, there was a year where knee injuries were up in the NBA and everyone was attributing it to all kinds of factors. And then they just kinda stopped and we realized it was just a fluke that some happened to be bunched together in high-profile situations.

I don't see any reason to think pitchers are actually breaking down. I think it's probably just a random grouping at once. Pitchers are volatile; they were 10 years ago, they'll be volatile in 10 years. It makes sense that, every once in a while, they'd group together without cause.

[lou]

The Marlins have babied Fernandez since they got him and personally, I think Fernandez delivery isn't very violent. He's very consistent. I think Chris Sale is going to have a major arm injury within the next 3-4 years, I don't feel the same about Fernandez. That's all I'm saying. Shit happens, but that's everyone. Scott Cousins can ruin a season.

[Bobbob1313]

They've done a very good job limiting his workloads, which is a good thing.

The only red flag I can think of is he's throwing his curveball/slider nearly 40% of the time this season.

[Mainge]

JJ's delivery wasn't exactly violent either, though.

[Nick]

Mark Prior was the posterboy for good mechanics there for a while. Didn't really work out for him.

[lou]

Mark Prior was the posterboy for good mechanics there for a while. Didn't really work out for him.

Severe overwork
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JJ's delivery wasn't exactly violent either, though.

I agree, but Girardi really didn't help him out early on which contributed to the initial injury. I hope I am remembering this correctly, but didn't he send him out after a 5 hour rain delay? Girardi was the worst.

The rest of it is "shit happens." It's impossible to be completely risk averse with anyone. It think it's fair to say though as to Fernandez, it would be a bigger fuck up to not sign him longterm and have him blossom, then to sign him and get screwed with injury. You have to take risk on at some point, and this kid, with this future payroll, and this team construction around him, is it. The juice is worth the squeeze.

I go all in on him.

[emkayseven]

I mean, I agree, and you're preaching to the choir. But I can see where they'd say "he's not worth the risk" and try to justify it, even though I totally disagree.

If he has a career ending injury he still has value as a fucking cheerleader. The guy is just dynamic and everyone loves him.