Fish Reach 1 Year Agreement with McGehee

[lou]

Interesting to think if they keep him next year. Even if he hits .240 here on out, he could end with a decent season line of .280/.340/.400 and 80+ RBI (anticipating he eventually hits some more extra base hits/bombs with the slugging number. Also, I mention RBIs as counting stats matter for arbitration). Based on playing time/career/this season, probably looking around $3.5 million range next year. I mean I guess that is "Furcals" money so he can be around and have it not increase payroll per se, but still.

Same time, might be worth it to trade him this month if something ok is offered. Think they hit sell mode unless they go 7-4 next 11 or so (before road trip after break). That gets them to .500.

[Nick]

More like McGheyhee, amirite?

How did I know?

[Bobbob1313]

Interesting to think if they keep him next year. Even if he hits .240 here on out, he could end with a decent season line of .280/.340/.400 and 80+ RBI (anticipating he eventually hits some more extra base hits/bombs with the slugging number. Also, I mention RBIs as counting stats matter for arbitration). Based on playing time/career/this season, probably looking around $3.5 million range next year. I mean I guess that is "Furcals" money so he can be around and have it not increase payroll per se, but still.

Same time, might be worth it to trade him this month if something ok is offered. Think they hit sell mode unless they go 7-4 next 11 or so (before road trip after break). That gets them to .500.

Keeping McGehee around for multiple millions because he had a BABIP-inflated season with a bunch of RBI sounds exactly like the sort of dumb thing the Marlins would do.

[Namaste]

Yup.

Also, no team plays more games on the road from here on out than the Marlins.

[dim]

I mean $3.5 million for McGehee at 3rd base next year even with regression doesn't sound too horrible, especially with no real alternative. I still feel the same way watching McGehee that I did watching Cantu hit a few years back. We rode the Cantu train for a couple seasons until he hit the regression train. I'm fine with letting McGehee do the same thing. I usually think it's fine to reward players for playing well, BABIP aided or not, and McGehee has been a HUGE HUGE HUGE improvement over what we were putting out at 3rd base last season.

In terms of the minors, Mark Canha is the guy who would be best served to play 3rd base if McGehee regresses or whatever. He's a pretty decent hitter and has earned a look at a major league roster spot (on the bench at least) with how he's hit this year and in the minors in general. At worst he makes a nice backup (able to play multiple positions) and good bat to have coming off the bench.

[Bobbob1313]

I mean, Cantu was actually pretty good that one year.

A LOT better than McGehee's been so far, once you take out McGehee's hilarious luck.

[HUGG]

His average is going to drop because he's been getting hilariously lucky with BABIP, and his slugging % will probably rise because he's been getting hilariously unlucky in terms of HR.

He's hitting the ball harder than he has since 2009 (LD% 09: 21.6%, 10: 16.9%, 11: 16.2%, 12: 15.5%, 14: 19.2%) and yet only has 1 HR. 1.2% of his flyballs have gone for HRs, his career entering the year was over 10%.

His ISO is near half of his career number.

He definitely came back from Japan with better plate discipline, but it's not like he's not hitting the ball as hard. There's no explanation for the ISO drop. It's as bad of luck as he's had good of luck with hits.

[Nick]

Yeah, I have to think he'll start hitting home runs eventually with the year he had in Japan last year. I saw him hit a moon shot at Disney's Wide World of Sports in a Spring Training game in March. I think it's just a matter of time.

[Bobbob1313]

I used this to look some stuff up: http://public.tableausoftware.com/vi...owVizHome=no#1 (Note: it appears to only run through June 29)

McGehee's only had seven batted balls go at least 330 feet. He's really just not hitting the ball particularly far. I'm not sure we can just say his HR/FB ratio is bad luck. For comparison, Hechavarria has as many batted balls travel at least 330 feet, on 30 fewer flyballs. Yelich has had 14 balls travel at least 330 feet, on less than half as many fly balls as McGehee

This isn't even Robinson Cano's situation, where he's had 17 balls at least 330 feet and six of them have been caught. McGehee's only made one out beyond 330 feet, so these aren't balls that are dying at the wall.

Maybe it's bad luck that only one of those 330-foot fly balls has left the yard, but I don't think there's some hidden power potential here. He's hitting like a slap-hitter right now.

[Erick]

Keeping McGehee around for multiple millions because he had a BABIP-inflated season with a bunch of RBI sounds exactly like the sort of dumb thing the Marlins would do.

I don't think that it would be dumb to bring him back. I'd rather have another year of Casey Mcgehee than whatever the alternative is in free agency.

[Bobbob1313]

If it's like, 1/$2-3m, sure, whatever.

I'd guess he'll look for something like 2/$10m if he finishes the season with a .750 OPS, 85+ RBI and ~2.5 WAR. And no thank you on that.
--------------------

His average is going to drop because he's been getting hilariously lucky with BABIP, and his slugging % will probably rise because he's been getting hilariously unlucky in terms of HR.

He's hitting the ball harder than he has since 2009 (LD% 09: 21.6%, 10: 16.9%, 11: 16.2%, 12: 15.5%, 14: 19.2%) and yet only has 1 HR. 1.2% of his flyballs have gone for HRs, his career entering the year was over 10%.

His ISO is near half of his career number.

He definitely came back from Japan with better plate discipline, but it's not like he's not hitting the ball as hard. There's no explanation for the ISO drop. It's as bad of luck as he's had good of luck with hits.

His average batted ball distance prior to this season was 185. Average batted ball distance this season is 174.6.

His average distance for a fly ball before this season was 288.6. Average distance this season is 253.7.

He's just not hitting the ball as hard.

[Erick]

If it's like, 1/$2-3m, sure, whatever.

I'd guess he'll look for something like 2/$10m if he finishes the season with a .750 OPS, 85+ RBI and ~2.5 WAR. And no thank you on that.

I agree.

[Bobbob1313]

McGehee's flyball spray charts. A lot more shallow fly balls.

I think he's just kinda a slap hitter now.

Comparison: Hechavarria's average fly ball is 260.7 feet. Yelich's is 275.5. Dietrich's is 265.4. Stanton's is 282.3. Salty's is 263.6. Ozuna's is 280.8. Mathis' is 268.9. Solano's is 239.8. Jones' is 276.1.

[nny]

If it's like, 1/$2-3m, sure, whatever.

I'd guess he'll look for something like 2/$10m if he finishes the season with a .750 OPS, 85+ RBI and ~2.5 WAR. And no thank you on that.

Doesn't really matter what he's looking for since he's in arbitration