Looking Ahead

[Miamarlin21]

Does anyone think they try to sign some free agents or perhaps give extensions to other players on the team along with Stanton? What's the projected payroll for next year?

No one to get excited about.

As for extensions. Hopefully Gincarlo. I wish they'd give one to Fernandez as well (Matt Moore) but they won't.

[marlinsfan24]

^It's not even that they won't, Scott Boras is the agent and is less likely to accept a team friendly deal.

[nny]

I'm going to be sad if we don't re-sign Smolinski. Always was a fan of him, sad he never took that big step forward to be a legit prospect (although his move to the OF killed any value he had, really).

Lou brought up a Morrison extension before and I think that'd be a great move by the FO. At worst, he's going to be a solid 1B fixture. And his break out potential is still definitely there. So an extension would be at worst solid, at best amazing. (Well, the "real" worst case scenario is his knee goes out, but being at 1B should really help keep him healthy).

Outside of that, Longoria-ing Yelich and Moore-ing Jose are the only other options. And not doing those is certainly understandable. Not just from the player not accepting the contract standpoint, but also frequency in which pitchers get injured and that Yelich is not a good defender at a premium position like Longoria was (So if Yelich doesn't hit at his potential, he's not worth much. If Longoria didn't hit at his potential, he was still very valuable)

[lou]

Yea, I kind of feel Morrison is where Anibal was coming off injury. I remember Swift and I were advocating to do a mini 3 year gamble on Anibal coming off that half season of great off the injury, to try and buy low and get an extra year or two. Would have been good in hindsight. Low risk, high reward

I would hope they do this

-Stanton 6/$85-95, some sort of no trade for first 4 years or so. Comps with Cargo just fine, shouldn't be an issue and Stanton is a prime free agent at I think 28 for a prospective mega deal

-Fernandez 6/$30-35 fully guaranteed (which is double what Moore is guaranteed. This year counts for a lot to me and to appease Boras) with an escalator or two to $40 if he becomes Felix Hernandez, it would be very hard for him to turn down that guaranteed money for only 1 free agency year even with Boras. He'd be a free agent at 27, Boras would "Get Some." If he stays ace like, arbitration could be look at stupid numbers like $9-$12-$15 and free agency would be $20 on a long term deal. This saves the Marlins $20+ million plus no back end in a multi-year deal. This is pretty huge.

-Cishek 3/$16, and two options on the back which could extend to 5/$32 ($4-5-7-8-8). He's going to get paid, this is going to save $2+ million each on years 2-5 of the deal.

-Morrison 3/$12, and two options on the back which could extend to around 5/$30 ($2.5-4-$5.5-$8-$10). Completely worth gamble to get those option years as the $12 isn't killing you and the Marlins have absolutely nothing coming up at 1B that will surpass Morrison next 3 years.

I think you wait until next off season for Yelich and Turner and see what they do in a full season, and if anyone breaks out from Marisnick/Ozuna/Dietrich/Eovaldi/Alvarez class that's next season too.

Only other internal long term guy is probably Dunn if you'd want to gamble he becomes a shut down lefty. Those guys are making $4-5 million in free agency a year. They could do something like 3/$5 (1.25-1.75-2) which is basically just guaranteeing his arbitration, and tac on two options for say $2.25 and $2.75 for a 5/$10 potential deal. Get two free agency years for the price of 1 maybe. It's probably not worth it with the lefties (Jennings, Olmos, Conley, etc) coming up, the volatility of RP in general, and the fact his arbitration numbers are going to be extremely low for 3 years, but there is a savings possibility there in a "low risk" fashion. Not a big deal either way which I mention at end rather than with the "big 4" above.

[Mainge]

None of that will happen.

[Fritz]

[Miamarlin21]

Extending Stanton and Jose should be a priority. Maybe wait until next off-season for Jose. Other than that, signing Logan might make sense since we do not have any first baseman in the minors that could take over. I say ride it out with Yelich the first couple of years and then worry about an extension.

[lou]

None of that will happen.

I agree. They are good at being terrible.

[Fritz]

It's fun to read your posts. It's like we can all pretend to be fans of a competently run organization.

[nny]

If he stays ace like, arbitration could be look at stupid numbers like $9-$12-$15 and free agency would be $20 on a long term deal. This saves the Marlins $20+ million plus no back end in a multi-year deal. This is pretty huge.

I think to get that high, he's going to have to get a cy young. I think that was only reason Kershaw (7.5) and Timmy (9) got what they did.

There are a LOT of comps around the 130-140 ERA+ range (Hamels, Webb, Zambrano, several more) and they ranged from 2.5m to 4.35m in arbitration.

Going more old school, Oswalt had a 152 ERA+ and no cy young and got 3.25m before the 2004 season. Something like 5-6m now?

I think, no cy young and 130-150 ERA+, you're looking probably more so around 5m rather than 9m.

What is your buy out structured as? 1-1-3-5-8-12 to 1-1-4-6-9-14? Close to what he'd get in arb plus a free agent year if he doesn't win cy young, and definitely big saving if he does win one (Timmy 41m for his 3 arb years, kershaw probably going to be close to that, compared to 15-20m).