Josh Johnson's Innings

[Swifty]

The SNY pregame show yesterday featured an interview with Fredi Gonzalez which produced several interesting things; some of which had to do with the fact that he's playing the "we're just happy to be here" card, but that's neither here nor there.

What he did say that was of spectacular interest to me was regarding JJ's most recent start against the Mets, and, paraphrasing, were this May or June, they would have definitely ran him out there trying to get 8 innings out of him.

Now, this is the most concrete thing I've heard regarding the team making a conscientious effort to limit JJ's innings, but here's the thing...do we really need to?

Johnson's first full season was also, to this point, his only full season. He recorded 157 innings in 31 appearances (27 starts 5 innings per appearance).

Johnson's currently appeared in 26 games (all starts) with 171.2 innings (6.1 innings per start). Just based on keeping him on regular rest, he'll have 7 more starts in the regular season. Assuming we keep him on the schedule he is now, he won't start a game against the Phillies, but he's eligible to start the last day of the season on short rest. I point this out because we've indicated that even against Philadelphia, we'll pull him early to keep his innings down.

Thus, 7 appearances at his current 6.1 innings per start pace gives him 44.1 innings more this season. That'll push him through the 200 innings plateau (216 innings), making the first time in his career he'll pitch 200+ innings in a season.

Is this concerning? Well, superficially, yes, it is. You're going to ask a guy with serious injuries to log 200 innings when, in years 2006-08 he didn't pitch 200 innings combined. However, upon deeper inspection, if he ends around 215 innings, his innings might not even be a concern. For Tommy John recoverers, the rule of thumb is that their first full season back shouldn't exceed the innings total of their last full season by more than 60 innings. Conveniently, JJ's 2006 total of 157 puts his 2009 danger threshold at 210 or thereabouts.

Additionally, JJ's not exactly a max effort pitcher, you can see that he'll dial it up to 98 when he has to, but other than that, his delivery is smooth and effortless. He doesn't have a power-curve or a splitter, so there isn't a ton of pressure on his elbow. He doesn't even change his arm slot for the slider, he just lets it go. I'd argue that the most taxing pitch he throws is his changeup because he uses a slightly different arm action from his fastball/slider.

So then, if his pitches don't tax his arm, he's not kicking his own ass start to start, do we need to worry about the innings at all? Should the concern then be on the pitch count? Or is this a chicken - egg conundrum where we can't have a high pitch count without innings, therefore, limiting the innings will surely limit the pitch count?

Ultimately, my personal preference would be to not worry about the innings, but how the innings are accomplished. 90 pitches over 7 innings, with JJ, do not worry me nearly as much as 50 over 3. I certainly hope, as an organization, we feel the same way.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

The innings do concern me. His pitching may appear to not be stressful but let's not forget that it was stressful enough to make him have to have major elbow surgery. That alone shows that his pitches are stressful enough to have to be monitored.

I know he's our ace and we need him during this playoff push but is having him throw 210+ innings worth the risk of him getting hurt again and missing part of next year? I'm not saying he should be shut done but I'm all for Fredi and Wiley pulling him early when he could go longer to try to protect him.

[Swifty]

The injury was just a freak thing, first it was the rain delay, now it's his pitches? In two years is it going to be Joe Girardi attacking him with a knife? I don't buy it; it happened, it will happen again to someone, and there's nothing we could have done differently to prevent it.

Tommy John literally rolls the arm's odometer back to zero. Considering there's a full season under his belt, he's built like a race horse and doesn't have a high stress pitch in his repertoire.

Thus, my point is simply we're staring at the wrong problem. You want to limit something, limit his pitches. Don't send him back out over 100 (like we did against Colorado). Stop staring at the 7th as the threshold. Let him go all 9 if he's under 100; don't put him back out for the 7th if he's "only" at 100 pitches.

[Beef]

The innings do concern me. His pitching may appear to not be stressful but let's not forget that it was stressful enough to make him have to have major elbow surgery. That alone shows that his pitches are stressful enough to have to be monitored.

I know he's our ace and we need him during this playoff push but is having him throw 210+ innings worth the risk of him getting hurt again and missing part of next year? I'm not saying he should be shut done but I'm all for Fredi and Wiley pulling him early when he could go longer to try to protect him.

What innings were stressful enough to make him have major elbow surgery? These innings this year? Some innings in a previous year? All innings in a previous year? Innings we can pick and choose in a previous year? Granted, he certainly has had some "stressful innings" or "stressful pitches", but so has every other pitcher and it's not fair to just decide it is that stress that we can't define is the cause of what happened. It would also be unfair to say whatever that stress was on his arm is the same stress on his arm now when he goes through tough innings/outings.

Does that really, on its own, show that his pitches are stressful enough? Like I said, perhaps it shows that they were stressful enough at some point. Perhaps not, though. Like Swift pretty much said, we can't just decide exactly what caused an injury all the time. If some guy jumps and lands awkwardly on somebody else's foot, I'd feel confident in telling you why the guy sprained his ankle. I can't pretend to feel confident in telling you how a pitcher fucked his ulnar nerve just like I wouldn't feel confident in blaming the timing of the World Baseball Classic for injuries to guys that played in the World Baseball Classic when guys who aren't playing there are getting hurt too.

While obviously it is best to have a healthy JJ for this team, that is likely part of the good the front office sees in not giving pitchers multi-year deals. Push him this year as they see necessary to win games and if something terrible should happen, so be it? Not the most wonderful of ideas and thoughts, but less to worry about.