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Marlins Considering JJ Extension? + SI Fluff Piece

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  • Speculation: Marlins Considering JJ Extension? + SI Fluff Piece

    By Jason Lieser, Special to SI.com

    MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. -- Players rarely captivate their audience in the first few innings of a game, but Marlins pitcher Josh Johnson's dominance made August 14 feel historic almost immediately. Watching the 25-year-old Johnson strike out seven of the first nine Rockies he faced, all missing wildly, Marlins fans could not resist the thought of a no-hitter.

    The tension at Land Shark Stadium -- as much as there can be when 15,965 people watch a baseball game in a concrete football complex -- swelled as Johnson, a beefy 6-foot-7, 252-pound right-hander, overpowered the Rockies with mitt-searing fastballs through 6 2/3 no-hit innings.

    "He was playing video games," Marlins catcher John Baker said afterward, marveling at Johnson's command. "We press A and he throws a fastball, 97 mph on the corner. We press B and he throws a back-foot slider and strikes the guy out."

    But with two outs in the seventh, Garrett Atkins broke the suspense by turning on an inside fastball and drilling it to Section 211 for a home run near the left-field foul pole. Behind the plate, Baker barked some "words my mom wouldn't want me saying." In Tulsa, Okla., Johnson's parents were watching the game during dinner and his mother, Bonnie Johnson, yelled, "shoot!" which is as close as she comes to profanity.

    Josh Johnson's reaction? He wiped his right hand on his pants twice and dug out a little dirt near the rubber with his cleat. Then he struck out the next hitter on a biting slider down the middle.

    "That's just Josh," his father, Al Johnson, said. "He doesn't let things linger."

    Johnson finished that game with a career-high 11 strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings to drop his ERA to 2.85 and improve his record to 12-2.

    It was his brightest moment in a breakout year. This season, which if he stays healthy will be his first complete one as a major league starter, Johnson has vaulted himself into baseball's honor society of staff aces, thanks his durability and efficiency, and one of the game's most overwhelming fastballs.

    "I'm a little inconsistent at times, but I can deal with that as long as, for the most part, I'm throwing the ball well," said Johnson in his typically understated manner.

    Johnson, a first-time All-Star in St. Louis last month, has given the Marlins at least six innings in 22 of his 25 starts. He boasts miniscule numbers in opponent batting average (.228), on-base percentage (.281) and WHIP (1.09).

    Johnson's numbers are good enough to make him a Cy Young Award candidate, but more importantly to him and the Marlins, they appear to indicate a full recovery from his Aug. 3, 2007, Tommy John surgery, which could have marked the end of his young career.
    Quick recovery

    When renowned sports surgeon Dr. James Andrews recommended Tommy John surgery, which in Johnson's case meant relocating a tendon from his right wrist to his elbow, Johnson knew he had no other choice if he wanted to pitch again.

    "All right, I'm all for it," he told Andrews.

    Johnson and his pregnant wife, Heidi, sat in the back of a courtesy van the next morning as they rode from the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Pensacola, Fla., to Andrews' facility in Gulf Breeze. The reflection of streetlights glittered on the water as they drove across the Pensacola Bay Bridge for Johnson's 6 a.m. appointment. Johnson was hungry from skipping breakfast, and he was trying to reassure his wife that everything was fine.

    "She was more nervous than I was," Johnson said. "She had never heard of Tommy John. You tell her it's reconstructive elbow surgery and she's like, 'OK, that doesn't sound good.'

    "I was pretty calm. I knew I was getting it done, so there was no backing out. I was ready to get it right."

    A few hours later, Johnson was on the operating table counting backward from 100. He made it to 99 and blacked out. Heidi read every magazine in the waiting room at least twice. Johnson woke up eight hours later with a bulky bandage around his elbow.

    That night, and every night for the next three weeks, Johnson slept sitting up with a pillow wedged between his right elbow and his torso to assuage the pain. He could not throw a baseball for four months.

    "That was the toughest time," he said. "How am I ever going to throw again? I guess it's like 80 percent now, the coming-back rate, but you never know."

    Andrews has performed more than 2,500 Tommy John surgeries and the American Sports Medicine Institute says that 75 percent of his major league patients made it back to the big leagues, but those odds did little to ease the Marlins' worries.

    "It's not clockwork at all," team president David Samson said. "Whenever any pitcher misses a year, it is a cause of great concern as to what that pitcher will look like when he comes back."

    Johnson had shown his potential by going 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA as a rookie in 2006, but logged just 15 2/3 innings in '07 before his visit to Andrews.

    His physical strength and dedication to the rehabilitation program helped him stay ahead of the pace for the typical one-year recovery period. He made five rehab starts in the minors beginning in mid-June 2008 and rejoined the Marlins on July 10 at Dodger Stadium. He had yet to regain the full velocity of his fastball, but lacked little else as he went 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA in 14 virtually pain-free starts.

    "One of the things that surprised me when he first came back was he had as good of command of all of his pitches as before," said Dave Van Horne, a 41-year veteran in the Marlins radio booth who has been with the team since 2001. "He had to still build up his arm strength ... but usually after a long layoff the first thing you look for is command and he had that right at the outset."

    The power eventually resurfaced, too. Prior to surgery, Johnson's fastball averaged 93 mph. This year he's regularly clocking 97 and topping out at 99.
    Maturation of an ace

    One of the most puzzling questions Johnson has pondered was one he only considered after his comeback: What if his life in baseball was finished? Sitting in the home dugout at Land Shark Stadium earlier this month, he still did not know what he would have done if his elbow had not rebounded.

    The biggest and youngest of five boys, Johnson was born into a family of athletes, and his infatuation with baseball began at age 3 in Minneapolis. Johnson still remembers, albeit through a cloudy lens, attending the Minnesota Twins' 1987 World Series championship parade. When he was 5, Johnson wrote on a piece of paper -- his parents still have it -- that he planned to be a major leaguer.

    "I never even thought about doing anything other than baseball," Johnson said. "Since I was three years old, I was baseball, baseball, baseball."

    His family later moved to Tulsa and Johnson blossomed as a pitcher and left fielder at Jenks High School. He occasionally made the 100-mile drive to work out with pitching guru Joe Jordan, now the Baltimore Orioles' director of amateur scouting, at Oklahoma City University's indoor facility. At the time, Jordan was a regional scout for the Marlins and quickly identified Johnson as a valuable prospect. He recommended that Florida take him in the second round of the 2002 draft, but they held out and got him in the fourth, 113th overall.

    In his five sessions with Johnson, Jordan helped polish his mechanics, taught him about pitch selection and, to Johnson's surprise, told him to ditch his curveball in favor of a slider, which now is his deadliest off-speed pitch.

    "Even for a young kid, he had such ability to command his fastball to both sides of the plate that it fit perfectly with a slider behind it," Jordan recalled.

    Another trait that Johnson developed as a teenager in Oklahoma was his steady, unflinching demeanor. The curly, dark hair unfurling from the back of his hat is the only trace of disarray in Johnson's appearance, and he pitches with less expression than he shows while reading the menu at Olive Garden, his favorite place to eat the night before a start.

    He credits his composure to watching his father play hockey and softball in recreational leagues. He admired how calm his dad stayed regardless of the game's highs and lows.

    Most observers, including Johnson's father and Baker, have trouble detecting any level of frustration or jubilation from Johnson when he's on the mound.

    "He never has his shoulders down, he always stands tall and he always keeps his head up," Van Horne said. "But keep your eyes on him closely. When he gets out of a stressful inning and comes up with a big out, he'll have a fist pump like everybody else. You just don't see it as often -- and he's not in trouble as much as other pitchers."

    Just the beginning

    Without Johnson, it's hard to imagine the Marlins, who opened the season with a league-low $36.8 million payroll, swimming anywhere near playoff contention, but it's August and they are in the wake of teams spending at least twice that amount. Through Tuesday, Florida is 66-59 (including 18-6 when Johnson pitches) and trails Philadelphia by seven games in the NL East. Colorado leads the Marlins by 5 1/2 games in the wild-card race.

    The Marlins have used 11 different starting pitchers this season and, aside from Johnson, none of the regulars have an ERA lower than 23-year-old rookie Sean West's 4.44 mark. The 10 starters who don't go by "J.J." are 31-38 with a 5.12 ERA and average fewer than 5 2/3 innings per game.

    But any time Johnson takes the mound, the Marlins are as good as baseball's best. He gave them seven quality innings in wins this summer over the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, owners of the top records in their respective leagues.

    "The days he pitches, the guys know we have a real, real good chance to win the ball game or at least be in it," Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said. "It's just a feeling.

    "You see [opposing coaches] come in ... and they always ask if Johnson is pitching in the series. When you say no, they say, 'Great.' "

    The Marlins are paying just $1.4 million for that confidence this year, and Johnson has two more seasons of arbitration before he is eligible for free agency. Florida has a reputation for spending cautiously, but has a new retractable-roof stadium scheduled to open in 2012 and opened the checkbook to sign All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez to a six-year, $70 million deal last season.

    Samson says he envisions Johnson pitching the first game at the new ballpark, which is under construction on the former site of the Orange Bowl in Little Havana, but the fanbase will not believe it until Johnson gets a long-term extension.

    "Would he be an example of a player that we would think about [for an extension]? Of course," Samson said. "You just have to be prudent about it, but Josh is someone we could see on our team for a very long time."

    For his part, Johnson said he wants to secure his future with the Marlins, but he is waiting for the team to initiate negotiations.

    "If it happens ... I'll definitely be excited because I love it here," he said. "They've been great to me. They've told me that they want to, but we'll see."


    In the meantime, Johnson will continue to build on his impressive recovery. He has thrown a career-high 165 2/3 innings this year with no resistance in his elbow, which could indicate that his body is fully restored.

    Once he gets through an entire season, pitching coach Mark Wiley believes that Johnson will become even more dominant than he has been this year. Wiley expects Johnson's changeup to keep progressing, and he sees in Johnson the capacity to master a splitter in the next few years.

    "Guys like that, there's still room for improvement, which would make him even more difficult," Wiley said, grinning. "And he's still going to add some stuff."
    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ml?eref=sihpT1

    Doooooooooo iiiiit.

  • #2
    Beinfest had similar comments the other day. I'll believe it when I see it, but there's at least a glimmer of hope.

    Comment


    • #3
      Why do we continuously get quotes from David Samson? He's the only president in the majors that gets all this air time.

      Anyway, sign JJ, kthxbai.

      Comment


      • #4
        Because he's a whore.

        Comment


        • #5
          Do it.

          Comment


          • #6
            JJ's 2010 Contract/Arbitration analysis from a few weeks ago. Posted here for organization.

            ---

            Josh Johnson (Current 4th year salary - $1.4 million)
            2008 - 87.1 IP, 7-1, CG, 3.61 era, 77 K, 1.35 whip
            2009 - 171.2 IP, 13-3, 2 CG, 3.04 era, 149 K, 1.11 whip (as of Aug 28h)
            Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 210 IP, 15-4, 3.25 era, 175k, 1.15 whip

            We have such an amazing comp it’s not even funny. I know I have done this before, but just for keeping it in one spot.

            Zack Greinke
            2007 - 122 IP, 7-7, 3.69 era, 106 K, 1.30 whip < - Half year because of injury, just like JJ
            2008 - 202.1 IP, 13-10, 3.47 era, 183 K, 1.28 whip < - $1.4 million year 4. Same as JJ

            Post 2008, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (signed after year 4)

            So where do we begin. Greinke is spot on from years 3/4. This is the slot, we just have to value how much more is JJ than Greinke. JJ has an enormous “loss” advantage, a bit of whip, and probably a quarter to a half run less era. He also made the all-star team in 2009. JJ is clearly going to be slotted above Greinke off performance, and because of inflation.

            Contract Comparisons - Player Stats for Year 4 / Contract Value Year 5
            Adam Wainwright - 158.1 IP, 12-7, 2.79 era, 1.28 whip, 140 K / $4.65 million (signed after year 2)
            Matt Cain - 148 IP, 12-3, 2.25 era, 1.16 whip, 117 K / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)
            Jon Lester - Currently in year 3 / $5.75 million (signed after year 2)
            James Shields - Currently in year 3 / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)

            Cole Hamels (a Super2), signed a contract for years 3-4-5 for $4.35, $6.65, and $.9.5 million. The $9.5 is technically his year 5 salary so that isn’t comparable to JJ, but that $6.65 certainly marks the HIGH. Hamels was coming off a 227 IP, 14-10, 3.09 era, 1.08 whip, 196 K season. That is certainly very comparable to what Johnson is doing right now. Hamels signed the deal after year 2.

            Other notable pitchers hitting arbitration year 5, year 4 salary noted - Felix Hernandez ($3.8), Justin Verlander ($3.6)

            So the question now is, what’s JJ’s arbitration status for next year. What is JJ’s longterm contract status for next year. Each I think have very, very, different, responses.

            Arbitration

            At this point, it is clear Johnson is going to murder people all year. When I did this before, I was assuming a back to earth period where JJ’s era would shoot back to “good not amazing” levels of 3.6-3.8, the whip climbs over 1.20, etc. But JJ has decided he’s going to be a legitimate # 1 SP. Great, awesome. Despite the fact his Year3 innings are low and Greinke is such an amazing comp for all the reasons where we’d hope he’d only slot above him maybe a million bucks to the “Wainwright” level of compensation, we have the new Lester and Hamels contracts to deal with. JJ has to go above Lester in arbitration. He’s simply better than him and the Marlins are going to get slammed if they try and argue a low 3 era / 1.15 whip / 180 K JJ, is lower than a (projecting) 3.75 / 1.30 / 200 K Lester. There’s just no way an arbitration panel is going to buy that, even if you want to argue AL/NL, etc. Additionally, Lester is a bad comp for JJ because the 5th year contract price is LOWER than what the ‘free market’ would give because the Red Sox bought this year 3 years in advance. Jon Lester arguing a contract in three years is a higher value than him signing one right now. So suffice to say, if the Marlins are insane and don’t offer JJ a 4-5 year deal (see below), they are going to get slammed. I don’t know if JJ can get up to Hamels, who has been healthy and won the World Series, but it’s going to be. An additional problem would be if King Felix or Verlander randomly have their arbitration hearing before Johnson’s, or sign new deals. They would each get to Hamels levels easily. Making the case even harder for the Marlins.

            So the Arbitration Projection.

            Low - $4.75 million. Wainwrightish, and JJ is hurt by his lack of innings in 2008.
            Medium - $5.8 million. Lesterish, and JJ because the top non-Super2 slot for 5th year players. (not including Verlander or Felix really jumping here, which is possible)
            High - $6.75. Hamelsish, and JJ becomes the new slot because he is that awesome and general inflation

            I think the Marlins strategy would be a low 5 and arguing everyone but Hamels. I think if JJ trys to go huge with Hamels, he’ll get shot down for the lack of innings in year 3. Those innings won’t have a major effect on his figure, but they are still there to tip the scale. If the Marlins try to lowball this, like they did with Uggla last year, they are going to lose. But, I think discussing arbitration strategy is foolish. JJ needs the contract. And he needs it now.

            Contract

            So you don’t have to scroll up, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (4/$38). Lester is making (years 5-8, including option) $5.75-$7.6-$11.6, $13 (4/$37). So we have a nice baseline for top young starters here. One, who has the same innings pitched track JJ does, and the other bought out years in advance. JJ has to be slotted above this. Forgot Wainwright, who is $4.6-$6.5-$9-$12 (4/$32). Nice deal for the Cards.

            So after the blah blah back and forth with JJ wanting a $70 million deal and the Marlins wanting to give him $38.01 million, I think this is reasonable.

            2010 - $5.5 million
            2011 - $7.75 million
            2012 - $14 million
            2013 - $14.25 million
            2014 - $14.5 million club option / $1.5 buyout
            4/$43 or 5/$56

            That seems about right. JJ will either be 29 or 30 at the end of this deal, meaning he is due another huge payday in his career. Which is very important and why he’d never sign a 7 year deal. Not that we would want to either, but just saying.

            Overall. I find it imperative we sign JJ to a 4-5 year contract similar to the above. Not just because arbitration is scary, but because we don’t have to sign anyone else, and JJ is simply a cornerstone player you build around. Also from JJ’s perspective, he still is coming off the major arm surgery. Banking $5-6 million in arbitration would be nice, but that’s not “settle down forever” money. Getting a $40-50 million dollar contract is “locked up for life.” The time is now for both parties for the deal. Make it happen.

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