'98 Marlins Watch

[Omar]

Through 40 games:

2003 Detroit Tigers   9-31  --
2013 Miami Marlins   11-29  2
1962 New York Mets   12-28  3

Game 41 Results:

62 NYM: LOSS
03 DET: LOSS

Current Projected Record: 45-117
Current Projected Pyth Record: 49-113

Current Projected Run Differential: -259

Fun Fact: No one cares

[Chewford]

That fact wasn't fun!

[Namaste]

Those Tigers are in it to win it!

[Namaste]

To be fair to Houston, we should update their record.

They're 11-30. Like the Marlins.

[Ramp]

that Astros win over Scherzer the other day was huge

[Nick]

HUGH?

[Ramp]

let's not get carried away

[Ramp]

neither team is breaking that record anyway

[Chewford]

I think we can consider this season a success if we win more games than the '72 Dolphins.

[Omar]

Through 44 games:

2003 Detroit Tigers   9-35  --
2013 Miami Marlins   12-32  3
1962 New York Mets   12-32  3

Game 45 Results:

62 NYM: LOSS
03 DET: WIN

Current Projected Record: 44-118
Current Projected Pyth Record: 47-115

Current Projected Run Differential: -269

Fun Fact: The Marlins and the Heat have the same number of wins in May.

[Namaste]

HUGH win today to catch the 62' Mets!

When I went to the groundbreaking ceremony 4 years ago this is EXACTLY what I had in mind. Thank you, Mr. Loria. You deliver the dream!

[Erick]

neither team is breaking that record anyway

Not saying you're wrong, but is there a reason why you're so confident about this?

[Ramp]

Too much talent on both teams (and me not wanting it to happen)

[nny]

Too much talent on both teams (and me not wanting it to happen)

I thought it was impossible if we had Stanton but if he's out for a long time it got me thinking.

I think it's important to understand just how bad you have to be to accomplish it.

The foundation of WAR is really a good way to show it. One of the thing that powers WAR is the theory that a replacement level team (AKA, AAA players) would win roughly 48 games. So taking room for margin of error, that means we need better than AAA players.

In our staff, I'd say everyone is at worse replacement level. You can make arguments about Sanabia and LeBlanc but I think they'll be better out of then pen and we got a lot of SP injured coming back. Our pen is good though as is Nolasco/Slowey/Fernandez and we'll see what can stick at #4/#5 with the injured/AAA people.

Our position players are the problem, where basically everyone 27 or older (outside of Rugs) is at best replacement level. One of our biggest problems is that out of the 4 players with the most PA, 3 are 34 years or older with a ~.550 OPS. Replacing Dobbs (Logan), Pierre (Stanton/Yelich), and Polanco (Cox) will be a boost (At worst, they can't be worse).

And when you look at the younger players, I'd say they are at worst replacement level.

So, without Stanton, over the full season when we start replacing these old sacks of shit, off the top of my head I think we are a midish 50 win team and with Stanton, start hitting the 60's.

But that's not to then say it's impossible. The Mets had a +9 WAR (So ~56 projected win through WAR, although (1) Past war is not as accurate and (2) I have no idea how replacement level would change [At the very least it's 47 wins instead of 48 due to less games played]) and a 50 win Pythagorean record, but finished with just 40. There's always the margin of error/noise/human element/luck/whatever you want to call it.

The 2003 Tigers, meanwhile, had a +1.7 WAR and a 49 Pythagorean. We're currently at +.7

[Erick]

It's worth noting that certain guys who might be helping the team win will be traded in July.

For example, Nolasco kinda sucks, but he's probably a lot better than his potential replacement and we're going to get nothing for him.

I don't know who they plan to trade.

There is interest in all of the bullpen arms according to mlbtraderumors, and I'd probably trade all of them, as well. That would be another downgrade for the 2013 season.

I agree that I don't think they have a shot of breaking it if guys like Stanton and Morrison come back. + Yelich soon.

The Astros have a better shot.