Who is the Real Chris Volstad?

[Metes]

I have to agree with bobbobby. If we are putting no credence into his minor league numbers, are we essentially saying that they are worthless for pitchers? Because although Swift's points about facing ML talent are valid, they are valid for all pitchers, not just Volstad. Are we saying it's just a complete crapshoot once a guy gets to the Majors?

To me, this is a sophomore slump of a season for Volstad. I expect him to make adjustments in the offseason and work on getting his sinker to sink. He'll settle in somewhere between this year and last year, which will make a fine #3.

[Bobbob1313]

He is 22, also. It's gonna suck if he isn't ever going to improve from here. It's also probably really, really dumb to think that.

I just think if we are to accept what Swift says, then minor league numbers mean absolutely nothing for anybody. And neither do scouting reports. And I'm not cool with that, because then it's a total fucking dice roll with everyone. And that's not how it is.

[Beef]

Yeah, but I would say that it is somewhat of a dice roll with almost everyone

[Bobbob1313]

Yes, but "kind of a roll of the dice" does not equal "Guy will stop being what he has been based on numbers and scouting reports since he was like 16".

Yes, some guys won't translate. Maybe Chris is one of those guys. But we're talking about a guy who had a .8 HR/9 as his highest HR/9 in the minors, and had a .3 last season. Yeah, he's been fucking terrible this year, but I think there's a lot more evidence to suggest he'll get back to his old ways than that he'll just stop being who he is.

[Swifty]

Let me ask you this...is Jeremy Hermida on his way to being an elite middle of the order hitter because he cleaned up in the minors?

Is Hanley Ramirez lucky to have a job because as he got to more advanced minor league levels he got more and more average?

It would be one thing if guys on our team all performed the same way regarding their major/minor splits, but it's overly evident that it is a fucking crap shoot.

You scout a player, you look at him and compare his stuff/power/contact/speed not to the people around him, or the people he's playing with, but to the people he one day will be facing and the people he will be playing with. Pro prospects look fucking amazing when they're playing teams with 13 or 14 guys who will be bagging groceries in a matter of months.

To me, the only time numbers truly matter in terms of establishing a pedigree are what they do at the major league level. Only then can you say "he can't be this bad, he's never been this bad before." Until they prove otherwise, they are the body of their major league work.

[Bobbob1313]

Chris Volstad has basically been what he was in the minors, with the exception of home runs. This would be like if Jeremy Hermida was doing everything he did in the minors except hit he isn't walking. What made Volstad a good prospect was he had groundball tendencies and limited XBHs. What made Hermida a good prospect was that he was a good enough hitter who projected to more, but walked like a fiend. If you take away the one thing that makes a guy great, they become not good. But generally, those great skills translate.

Hermida just isn't hitting for power or average, that's why he's bad. His BB are pretty good for the most part (last year being the major exception).

I'm not sure that analogy worked, to be honest. I don't feel well...

Either way:

Chris Volstad has, for the most part, been what he was in the minors, the homers are the only real difference. To me, that says that it should even out. it's not like he's a completely different person, just one aspect of his game is different. Sure, he could continue to be one of the worst pitchers in baseball at allowing home runs. But all signs point to that reverting and him being better than he has been. Maybe if he was walking significantly more, striking out way less, and was allowing a ton of FBs and he had a normal HR/FB ratio, you might have a point. But the only thing that is really out of whack for Volstad is his HR/FB, which should even out. Again, it might not. But it's not really a great bet to make.

And the body of Chris Volstad's major league work is what lou posted:

4.07 era, 1.34 whip, 6 K/9, average 25 HR per 200 IP.

Solid 3, Amazing 4.

Maybe that's what you think he is, but you sure don't post like that. You post like you think he's closer to a 5 ERA than a 4.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

See, Swift, if you look at the entire body of major legue work, how do you discredit last year? Last year in the majors, he looked like the pitcher he always was in the minors. Why are you so quick to discredit those 3 months in the majors and say that now he's showing what he will be in the majors when he all of his minor league and major league stats up until this year say that this year is the abhoration instead of last year?

[lou]

Maybe that's what you think he is, but you sure don't post like that. You post like you think he's closer to a 5 ERA than a 4.

This is to swift and not me right? Because if not, confused.

---

Unrelated,

When Derek Lowe was 22, he pitched 50 innings in AA with a 1.73 whip. At 24, he made it to the bigs and gave up 11 HR in 53 innings/9 starts (12apps.) Then the Red Sox made him a reliever mid 24-28, and was awesome.

At 29, had his magical .97 whip full season starting. At 30-31, was a 5 era pitcher and sucked. At 32-35, settled into a 200 IP, 3.50 era, 1.25 whip beast of a pitcher.

Lowe's career line is a 3.80 era, 1.28 whip, .7 HR/9, 5.8 K/9.

Chris Volstads MLB career, spanning 21-22 years old

4.07 era, 1.34 whip, 1.1 HR/9, 5.9 K/9

Minors 3.40 era, 1.34 whip, .5 HR/9, 6.2 K/9

This is combined over 700 innings pitched, and levels appropriate for his skill level. This is amazingly consistent to me. There is one blip - extra HR out of nowhere in 2009. Rates don't just double/triple when everything stays the same. He is 22. He is obviously stressing for literally having the first 'failure' period in his baseball life. Sure, he could bust like Hermida and be "average at best," but giving up an extra 10-12 HR in 2009 - which is literally the difference between a 4.00 and a 4.75 era - isn't relegating him to bum status. This hasn't been a bad year at all. He's held his own for the most part, despite the struggles. But longterm, this is a low 4 era pitcher. This guy is going to be our Joe Blanton. And I'm really happy we have him because he's a nice compliment to our fireballers.

Maybe thinking baby Halladay, or a better Lowe, is a bit much as expectations were certainly raised post 2008, but I really don't think you can bash Volstad that much. Everyone of us would take Volstad's first 40 starts to the bank before he threw them. I expect a much more polished pitcher next year even if he never becomes a 1 or 2.

[Bobbob1313]

This is to swift and not me right? Because if not, confused.

To Swift, yes.

The body of his major league work is decent. Swift posts as if he's the worst piece of poop on the Poopville Marlins poopball pitching staff.

[Swifty]

I don't think he's the worst on the staff at all, I just think that the initial intent of this thread is the worst piece of poop on this message board.

His aggregate season total is who he is, who everyone save MBA expect him to be, and, with moderate room for improvement, cements him as a decent 3, good 4. That's fine. If anyone disagrees with that, then so be it.

[Bobbob1313]

The initial intent of this thread was to open discussion on what exactly was wrong. I was hoping someone would be able to show some pitchFX data that explained why he's been so much worse than last year, and so much different (as far as home runs go). I'm not sure why the initial intent of this thread is poop. You are poop. How about that?

[Party]

One of my theories on Chris Volstad is simply lack of adjustment.

Velocity is still there and no apparent sign of fatigue in his stuff. (Another theory I have which I have to research further)

So...

Volstad like most major leaguers dominated his competition for most of his childhood/teenage years. So a guy with his kind of stuff can cruise through the early years with little to minute adjustments to beat competition. He didn't spend much time at each level so he didn't see teams that often. So again, considering 90%(?) of players at most levels will not to see the light of day at the MLB, the 6'8 right hander with the slightly above average fastball, ok curveball, mediocre change up, and absurd downward plane can still get by on talent.

Fast forward to today, and all of his starts are on tape (from various angles). The scouting by opposing teams is much more comprehensive, and the talent level is much more consistent. All of the sudden, the athlete that cruised through most of his life has to adjust, change his patterns, change his style of pitching just to survive. A guy that projects to be a mid 3 or high 4 will not survive long based on stuff alone. It is hard enough for an AJ Burnett type with ace stuff.

Pitching is of course, as much an art as it is a science and he is still in his early twenties. I suspect Volstad, like most pitcher's his age, is getting a crash course on being touchy feely with pitching. And not to go further into intangibles, this is a team with no veteran starters and very few veteran relievers. So aside from Wiley, he's not really getting 'talks' the aging veteran on his last legs about the art of adjusting at the ML level.

This has nothing to do with work ethic. I do not know him personally so I cannot comment. Nothing has been written in the media so this is not a concern.

[Mainge]

One of my theories on Chris Volstad is simply lack of adjustment.

Velocity is still there and no apparent sign of fatigue in his stuff. (Another theory I have which I have to research further)

So...

Volstad like most major leaguers dominated his competition for most of his childhood/teenage years. So a guy with his kind of stuff can cruise through the early years with little to minute adjustments to beat competition. He didn't spend much time at each level so he didn't see teams that often. So again, considering 90%(?) of players at most levels will not to see the light of day at the MLB, the 6'8 right hander with the slightly above average fastball, ok curveball, mediocre change up, and absurd downward plane can still get by on talent.

Fast forward to today, and all of his starts are on tape (from various angles). The scouting by opposing teams is much more comprehensive, and the talent level is much more consistent. All of the sudden, the athlete that cruised through most of his life has to adjust, change his patterns, change his style of pitching just to survive. A guy that projects to be a mid 3 or high 4 will not survive long based on stuff alone. It is hard enough for an AJ Burnett type with ace stuff.

Pitching is of course, as much an art as it is a science and he is still in his early twenties. I suspect Volstad, like most pitcher's his age, is getting a crash course on being touchy feely with pitching. And not to go further into intangibles, this is a team with no veteran starters and very few veteran relievers. So aside from Wiley, he's not really getting 'talks' the aging veteran on his last legs about the art of adjusting at the ML level.

This has nothing to do with work ethic. I do not know him personally so I cannot comment. Nothing has been written in the media so this is not a concern.

One of my friends older brothers played travel ball with him for several years and I talked to the brothers dad about Chris. He didn't dominate much at all early on. When kids started catching up to his fastball, he had to learn a curve and change to get outs. Then he learned where to spot which pitch to induce a groundball, etc.

So he's made adjustments, albeit minor ones, before. He never was able to just over power batters like many pitchers early on do, and always had to 'pitch' to get outs.

Knowing this, I feel very confident in saying that he is capable of adjustments and if one is needed to get out of this funk, then it will be made.

[Swifty]

See, what I find funny about this is that to some, getting out of this means going back to Roy Halladay in waiting, to others, it's simply steadying the course and going back to a great 4, very good 3.

I'd be more curious, were we to make this a poll, to see how many view his ceiling as legitimately higher than a middle of the rotation innings eater.

[Party]

Would you agree that there is a stark difference between learning a curveball and learning the ins and outs of individual hitters around the league? Going back to my ' it as much an art as it is a science' comment?