2024-2025 Offseason Thread

[lou]

from the brief clip i saw he said they would spend money when the time comes and then used the 2023 trade deadline as an example. at that deadline, we did take on bell's contract but im pretty sure they dumped segura's deal to offset it for the following year. So he probably did spend a little more than they had on the books prior to the deadline, but not enough to look dumb enough to use that an example of spending money when the time came.

You are right mostly here. Segura did offset, but Bell was a little more expensive so extra money was devoted FWIW. They also paid Robertson like $4m which yes is not a lot in the grand scheme of things, but is taking on some money.

They ended at a $109m payroll year end 2023 which TBH..... would be a good annual starting place right now if Scrooge McDuck would let them spend that much. I agree with you those comments are a joke, and they should just decide to spend that kind of money to put a good product on the field and then in a contending year, up that on short term rentals at the deadline. They still haven't figured out they have to bake better bread to get more customers.

For perspective on how impactful $109m would actually be, this is $61m right now for 2025:

C - ____, Fortes
1B - Burger, Bride
2B - Edwards
SS - ______, Otto
3B - ____
LF - Norby, Stowers/Dane
CF - _____, Sanoja/Dane
RF - Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers (+Eury and Snelling midseason)
RHP - Max, Faucher, Bender, Cronin, Tinoco, Bauman
LHP - Nardi, Veneziano

Dead Money - Garcia, Go
IL Money - Eury


The idea they could spend $45-50m on say.... Adames, and then stop gap options at CF (Bader), and cheaper ones at C and "3B" as we wait for Ramirez and Serna (with shuffling IF to whatever spot when he's ready), and DDLS coming to replace Bride quickly, is beyond infuriating. Add in a luxury cheap 2nd lefty reliever also as there is room for budget here easily.

On the field, the pitching staff is there when healthy. The bullpen would be good with a Max conversion and everyone else is pretty solid. They'd just need the bat reenforcements and then there are no problems housing Adames post 2025 once Luzardo and some of the cheaper arb guys (Fortes, Bender) get moved out as Eury, Snelling, Mack, Mazur, etc. move on up

$109m would be INCREDIBLE for how Bendix is structuring this team and is nothing for a real baseball owner. That was 22nd in the league last year in money. It is pathetic. That is a strong wild card contender and I think that is the current bar not "get to the Dodgers."


I hope one of these journalists really lay into them of "when is the time going to come" as it's been 7 years and you're last in payroll during your ownership tenure in a better media market than half the league if not more. Maybe some self reflection needs to happen that you suck at being an owner, or, you are too poor to compete with 15+ other ownership groups so put your ego aside and sell the team to someone who will do something for the fans.

[lou]

I have no problem with Lou continuing his out there hypotheticals. I’m just saying it’s getting very hard for me to even come up with hypotheticals or care about Lou’s with the way this organization operates.

I'm honestly with you with a defeatist attitude, it's just the constant something big will have to happen for them to ever try to get over the hump. And that's before the Mets presumably sign Soto, Snell, and whoever. A move for Correa would obviously make sense even if he just averages 120 games a year as he is just so good when he plays still. Chalk it up into channeling grief/frustration to how shitty Bruce is when I have a moment of solace to type up hey it can "financially" work with Correa in theory, understanding Bruce sucks and it won't happen because there is absolutely no vision or any care for winning. Grief takes all forms.


However, let's also be a little objective about one money thing - Sandy and Luzardo are effectively controlled for 5 years, $70m right now (reasonable arbitration estimate for Luzardo next year + picking up Sandy's option). Yea once the season starts the money begins being spent, but if you trade them midseason you're clearing call it... $58m. And then Sanchez/Burger are obviously keeps as they are cheap/fine in their spots, but if one of is also moved midseason (which I find likely and especially Burger as I think DDLS, Martorella, and Berry will get shots and maybe Ramirez isn't a catcher, etc.), you're back at the you can cut $70m from future payroll quickly a those guys are in arbitration and would be tendered for a few years.

The long story short is, cutting $70m from 2026-2028 and getting at least 3 pretty premium players trading those three guys, and then having more than $70m to spend (you will have just penciled in three plus club controlled players for years, so money theoretically devoted elsewhere can be spent on a singular better thing), creates the situation where all of a sudden a $25m a year player can coexist on the payroll with an under $90m budget. Let alone the $109m budget they should be spending SMH.

It is effectively, just trading the contracts (cite - Todd advocating moving Sandy and I am with him fully once Sandy throws 10-12 good starts to open the year and the Marlins are 9 games under .500), getting the prospects and then when you spend, yes the dream would be Adames or obtaining something like Correa.... but in reality, when that money is spread on the next.... Garcia, Soler, Segura/Bell, and Cueto, don't blow it. They objectively spent around $110m on those 4 guys. The deals were just so fucking bad besides Soler the 1 year and half year of Bell we just kind of gloss over the fact that they *did* spend this type of money on external players they just whiffed on.They spent $110m on those four and got like -1.5 WAR or something over 9 years of contracts. That is just insane. They should have gotten floor 15+ and likely more as that's not even averaging as a 2 WAR player per season. That's a lot of wins spread over 3 seasons Kim just completely whiffed on. It sucks.



In any event, the other reason I am popping in - the Rays stadium deal is falling apart. Which could be a net benefit to the Marlins of being the only team in the state rather quickly. Expanded TV markets for some extra dollars? I don't think Orlando or Nashville (new football stadium) will have the ability to take on the Rays, but Charlotte and Raleigh are each prime landing spots quickly for them, let alone Portland. I do think the league has a 2 team expansion coming and something like Portland, Charlotte/Raleigh/Nashville, and Montreal makes the most logistical sense but we don't need to go into that. But maybe, just maybe, while it sucks for Tampa, this could be a little blessing in disguise for the Marlins to maybe find something advantageous of the Rays moving if it happens. Change it back to the Florida Marlins (like the City of Miami fucking cares they are so underwater on that deal) and get the Tampa and Orlando TV sets. We can hope.

[lou]

Also in the boring procedural moves...


I think it was smart to protect Fulton even with the injuries and see if he cuts it. There is space.

I am not really on board with the Banfield jettison, but maybe he genuinely will never hit. I can't see how his defense doesn't lift him over Pereda, but maybe they think Pereda will hit as he has objectively been pretty solid his last 800+ PA in AAA over three seasons. That being said, even if they like Pereda, Brujan, Conine, and Hill are all still on the roster and don't you protect Banfield over those 3 who are not any semblance of a longterm player? And that's just the bats as Bachar, Curry, and Soriano are also still on the 40 man? I know this has been touched on, but it is still weird to me.

In any event, I think they need 4 more bats and maybe a lefty reliever so 5 of these guys likely get cut so it's no sense in getting annoyed until it is mid-March - Bachar, Curry, Soriano, Pereda, Brujan, Conine, and Hill - I'd have just thrown at least Banfield (and McMillian if healthy) on the roster to round out those "7" spots. I suppose none of this really matters as the back end of the 40 man, but still. I have more faith they are getting the arms right and see something with Bachar, Curry, and Soriano then these bats who are effectively AAAA players.


Also they did make two interesting MiLB signings, of course they are both FV40s that Tampa let go as Peter loves his people.

Ronny Simon (2B, can dabble at 3B/LF. Not a SS) - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ro...ts?position=2B

Heriberto Hernandez (LF) - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/he...ts?position=OF


Hernandez looks like a T. Gray power upside/whiff machine and I don't think he'll be mentioned much more in the same way Gray is no longer here.

Simon though, looks like a smart add and potential utility guy. FG had him as the Rays 19th best prospect last year (Hernandez was 30th... pipeline also had Simon as 22nd in Rays system in 2023). I would say, he is Bride competition in spring training as his defensive versatility may lift him over him to especially help out at 3B at least short term, and otherwise will just cut his teeth at carving out a roster spot as he has a huge Edwards, Serna, and Otto problem longterm, especially since Norby may play some IF. This is good depth building though. In a perfect world, you could see Edwards(2B), Serna(SS), and Norby(LF) as predominant starters, and Otto and Simon plugging in literally all of their off days with Simon also pitching in as a backup 3B. We'll see.

[Todd]

Bader made $10 million last year and was worse than Jesus Sanchez. He can't hit at all.

[fish16]

i had completely wiped robertson from my memory. So ya they did spend money at that deadline, but it was such an insignificant amount relative to real major league franchises that its truly a pathetic thing to brag about.

[lou]

Bader made $10 million last year and was worse than Jesus Sanchez. He can't hit at all.

He's an elite defender and that is the price of a ho-hum 1+ WAR guy in free agency.

We need to get over expecting every player has to be a good hitter, defender, and base runner. They are going to have to extract value where they can and Bader can play defense in CF and is right handed so they can play him against lefties. It's just what is out there. I too would prefer better options.

[lou]

i had completely wiped robertson from my memory. So ya they did spend money at that deadline, but it was such an insignificant amount relative to real major league franchises that its truly a pathetic thing to brag about.

Yes, that was my post. It's insignificant and you are 100% right their comments are laughable boasting about that is spending money and not based in reality.

[fish16]

obviously we're going to have a high pick in the rule 5 draft. it's usually pitcher dominated because it's hard to keep a guy that isnt major league ready on the roster all year like the nats did with nasim nunez, but obviously our major need is some bats so i'll be interested to see what they do. Here are the names BA has on their primary list as some of the best available:

Blaine Crim- older at 27, but great track record in the minors. could be the ryan noda of this year or the mark canha from years back when the a's stole him from us. DH/1b option which we have a lot of, but he's got good pop (20-29 HR's each of the last 4 years) and walks a lot (70 and 71 the last 2 years), and those are typically the types of 1b the rays always have.

Bob Seymour- 1b from the rays system so Bendix knows him. Had his first taste of AAA action this year and hit 19 hr's and OPS of .954 in just 57 games. Huge K numbers though. We seem to love rays guys who dont have room on the 40 man so maybe a fit.

Shane Smith- undrafted RHP from the brewers, fastball can touch 98 but sits 92-96. Career ERA of 2.69 and 203 k's in 157 innings. Started for the first time this year in 16 of his 32 appearances (not sure if that was opening games or true starter) and had 113 k's to just 29 walks across AA and AAA. Interesting numbers.

Kala'i Rosario- twins outfieder. BA says he could be an everyday OF in RF. Lots of swing and miss but lots of power as well. Just 264 ab's above A+ ball though so hard to keep him on the roster all year. 19th on MLB.com's twins top 30 though.

Ricardo Olivar- Really solid prospect at C/OF in the twins system. MLB has him 15th. Great numbers in the minors, but not ML ready. only 19 games in AA, so it would be a true nasim nunez situation to steal a good prospect.

Ryan Ward- OF in the dodgers system. Just a numbers game for a team with too many guys and not enough spots. Was 2nd in the minors last year behind DDLS in HR's with 34. Honestly reminds me of Stowers.

Omar Alfonzo- C in the pirates system. Potential, but just 21 and never played above A+ ball. mlb has him 26th in their system

Sammy Siali- Former supplemental first rounder in the OF for the pirates- not very impressive numbers

AJ Vukovich- OF in the dbacks system. decent numbers, seems to have speed and a bit of power, but a lot of k's and not very many walks.

Damon Keith- another 24 year old OF stuck in the dodgers system. Apparently has some of the best raw power in the minors.

Bryan Magdaleno- Lefty reliever from the rangers organization- went from a to AA last year. Great numbers, has renyel pinto's body. Might be a low risk high reward type guy.

[fish16]

Severino fired. This is one of the important things Sherman is doing to build the organization back up in ways that are super important before spending money on the team.

if Sherman had any feel for the fans in this market, he would bring back rich waltz if rich is up for it

[fish16]

Dlc nontendered by the pirates after his disastrous tenure. Some lucky team is going to get the 3 year delayed benefit of his swing change.

We also tendered everyone, including the ones you’d expect plus bender and fortes

[sports24/7]

Severino fired. This is one of the important things Sherman is doing to build the organization back up in ways that are super important before spending money on the team.

if Sherman had any feel for the fans in this market, he would bring back rich waltz if rich is up for it

I never really get when people suggest off the field moves shouldn’t happen because on the field moves aren’t. The truth here is Severino was not good. He was super corny and it’s hard to watch a bad team when you’re getting sunshine and rainbows shoved up your ass like he constantly did. He seems like a nice enough guy so I hope he lands on his feet, but this is a good move regardless of the lack of baseball moves.

[sports24/7]

Dlc nontendered by the pirates after his disastrous tenure. Some lucky team is going to get the 3 year delayed benefit of his swing change.

We also tendered everyone, including the ones you’d expect plus bender and fortes

Berti also non-tendered.

[Nick]

I thought Severino was fine.

Bring back Rich or GTFO.

[Nick]

I wonder if they’ve ever talked to D-Train about doing color commentary for the club. Not sure if that’s even something that would interest him, but he’s in that world, and who could possibly be a better ambassador for the organization?

[Todd]

He's an elite defender and that is the price of a ho-hum 1+ WAR guy in free agency.

We need to get over expecting every player has to be a good hitter, defender, and base runner. They are going to have to extract value where they can and Bader can play defense in CF and is right handed so they can play him against lefties. It's just what is out there. I too would prefer better options.

Players whose value is exclusively defense should be avoided at all costs.

Defense is still hard to accurately quantify statistically.

Bader might be and probably is pretty good defensively. At the same time he is one of the worst hitters in baseball.

And offense is what the team needs.