Beradino: Should Marlins Trade for A-Rod?

[lou]

Watching Alex Rodriguez reduced to a $30 million cheerleader Wednesday night as Raul Ibanez (Miami Sunset) became the latest Yankees' postseason hero got me thinking.

How much of that remaining $115 million or so on A-Rod's contract (through 2017) would the Yankees have to eat in order to interest the Marlins in bringing the fading third baseman home?

It would help if the Yankees would agree to take back Heath Bell, still owed $18 million over the next two years if he doesn't return to a closer's role. But even that wouldn't fully offset up to $30 million in marketing bonuses Rodriguez is still due for the five remaining "milestone homers" he could hit as he tries to run down Barry Bonds.

Rodriguez (fifth all-time with 647 career homers) might sell tickets in the short term at Marlins Park, but he'll be 42 when his current contract ends and his combined on-base/slugging percentage has declined five straight years. Nagging injuries have become more of an annual concern as well.

The Yankees would probably have to make him a $15 million-a-year player, at most, to get some team to bite -- especially the Marlins.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/m...,3375346.story

I'm actually going to try and do the math here to come up with something I don't think is insulting for "the hell of it" purposes

A-Rod makes this comical amount: 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M

Base Salary - $114 Million
Signing Bonus January 2013 - $3 million
Bonus HR 660 (he is at 647) - $6 million
Bonus HR 714 - $6 million
Bonus HR 755 - $6 million
Bonus HR 762 - $6 million
Bonus HR 763 - $6 million

Next year is his age 37 season. Generously, he is probably a 3-3.5 WAR player the next 2 years which is solidly worth $10 mil a year in free agency, then if we drop him to a 2 WAR player 39-40 let's bump him to $7 million, and his last year an expensive backup at $3 million. In a non scientific roundball, I'd say A-Rod is an 'ok' investment (ignoring health issues) around $37 million of that guaranteed $123 (giving him the first HR bonus and January bonus).

So that leaves $86 million to offset or absorb in the "unreasonable" pile.

Minus Heath Bell - $18 million
Minus Nolasco - $11.5 million
Buck - $6 million

is roughly $50 million leftover if the Yankees take them.

Let's say Yankees will eat the Jan 2013 signing bonus, and HRR660 because they were ridiculous to give those out.

$41 million

And then the Yankees agree to eat $5 million a year off A-Rod's salary. Minus $25.

This leaves an extra $16 million. Marlins absorb that because there is nothing more to write off.

Last thing not accounted are the 714 and so on HR. Let's say Marlins get the Yankees to cover half of 714, and Marlins hedge their bets he doesn't jack 110-125 more to get to the record setting bombs. And even if he does, would probably be crazy so just assuming Marlins would be ok keeping them in.

So, if all that happens, which obviously is a ton, here is a year to year breakdown

2013
Marlins - Pay Arod $23 million, subtract $26.5 with Nolasco, Buck, and Bell, SAVE $3.5 million and get his 660th HR
Yankees - Pay Arod $14 million (remainder base, HR660 when he hits it, Jan 13 signng bonus), absorb the $26.5 million in Marlins guys. They were going to be paying A-Rod $37 this year by himself, so this is only an increase of $5.5 on 2013 payroll

2014
Marlins - Pay Arod $20 million, subtract $9 on bell, net gain to payroll $11 million
Yankees - Pay Arod $5 million, Pay Bell $9 million, Save $11 million

2015
Marlins - Pay Arod $16 million
Yankees - Pay Arod $5 million

2016 and 2017
Marlins - Pay Arod $15 million
Yankees - Pay Arod $5 million

Overall
Marlins - Pay ARod $89 million for 5 years, and not pay Buck/Nolasco/Bell $35, so A-Rod is roughly 5/$54 if we're looking at the big picture, not including some future record setting HR bumps that could happen.

Yankees - Save $53.5 million and get a season out of Nolasco, Buck, and two years of Bell, and probably 2-3 non top 5 in system prospects like James/Conley, Cox, and power reliever arms in A ball

[Swifty]

The Yankees-Steiner partnership makes all the trading ARod talk so damn silly.

[lou]

Note, I am not advocating this, I am just going through the process where I think it would be "reasonable" to entertain the idea both where it doesn't kill the on the field payroll projections for Marlins compared to how "good" A-Rod probably is moving forward.

Obviously, this is a crazy scenario with both teams absorbing (dumping) large amounts of payroll so I find any deal with A-Rod unlikely, but this is how I'd approach it if I was the Marlins. I don't know how much the Yankees would realistically expect to save dumping him, but I feel if they could get $50-70 million bucks out of it, I'd imagine they'd have to seriously consider doing that. Likewise, if the Marlins are really a 5/$55-65 range for A-Rod, it's not exactly a good contract, but it is a position of need and he certainly would have some level of 'star' power in the community. Let alone, if he can get close to Hank and Babe bombs, might be a marketing gamble there.

Just saying, food for thought.
--------------------

The Yankees-Steiner partnership makes all the trading ARod talk so damn silly.

I agree, just throwing it out there. Today is slow.

[AdamRavs]

They would have to move the fences in at Marlins park to make it remotely interesting. But right now Arod can't catch up to a 85-90mph fastball. Do we really think he will magically be productive enough at that amount of money?

[Fritz]

Once he gets on a sufficiently excellent designer steroid cocktail from the Dominican Republic, yes.

[Namaste]

Sign ARod and clear space in your calendar for Oct 2013 cause Marlins Park gonna be HOPPING.

[AdamRavs]

Sign ARod and clear space in your calendar for Oct 2013 cause Marlins Park gonna be HOPPING.

Cause of the soccer games?

[Omar]

ding