2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

I'm with Lee here with Westburg - I mentioned him before if they could maybe pull him along with Mullins/Mountcastle. Mayo is more of a 1B/DH it seems (I think he is from Coral Springs though so that may be a fun hometown snag like Luzardo) though.

Westburg is the Orioles 2B of the future however, so they may be disinclined to move him the same way we consider Sandy/Jazz/Eury are untouchable (he's a step below prospect wise from those guys, but they have a really good set up with their young guys so I think he is very highly valuable to them. Just a hunch). They need pitching, but they have other guys they can move plus they will spend money. He'd be a tough get, but would have been perfect.

That being said, nothing is wrong with Arraez. He's good. He fills a massive void. Lee is wrong about him. The only issue is we need that 5 year extension announced or they likely overpaid a little bit with Salas on paper.

The Marlins were also checking on young 3b prospect Baty from the Mets, reportedly offering Luzardo or Cabrera. I wouldn't give up either of those two for Baty, but Lopez would have worked just fine.

[fish16]

Luzardo and Cabrera shouldn’t be available for anyone at this point. If they are going to make another addition, it should be through Garrett, rogers, or prospects other than eury. Going into next year, they absolutely need to have sandy, luzardo, Cabrera, eury, Meyer/Eder, and sixto plus Fulton. Garrett, rogers, and Meyer/Eder (preferably Eder) plus other prospects should be more than enough to get the 1-2 other bats we need

[rmc523]

You don't think Sixto is a ifferent animal considering his extensive injury history? We're worried about getting an extra year out of him, when really what are the chances he makes it to 6 years period?

I ease him back into things. Last thing we/he needs is to rush him back and get him hurt again.

[lou]

The Marlins were also checking on young 3b prospect Baty from the Mets, reportedly offering Luzardo or Cabrera. I wouldn't give up either of those two for Baty, but Lopez would have worked just fine.

I think you'd run to have done that for Cabrera. Baty has been a pretty consistent FV55 prospect and bats are safer than pitchers. Luzardo has proved himself a bit so I can understand that, Cabrera still has massive reliever risk. Reports say Baty should stay at 3B, but worse case in a few years he shifts to 1B and Berry is the DH. That one is a no brainer to me.

[rmc523]

Signing Gurriel to trade Cooper makes no sense to me. I'm no Cooper fan, but he was significantly better than Gurriel was last year, and Gurriel turns 39 in June. Not like we have a replacement 1st baseman waiting in the wings on the farm either.

The problem is Cooper can't stay healthy/on the field. I think that's a big reason they're trying to get another one.

[lou]

Luzardo and Cabrera shouldn’t be available for anyone at this point. If they are going to make another addition, it should be through Garrett, rogers, or prospects other than eury. Going into next year, they absolutely need to have sandy, luzardo, Cabrera, eury, Meyer/Eder, and sixto plus Fulton. Garrett, rogers, and Meyer/Eder (preferably Eder) plus other prospects should be more than enough to get the 1-2 other bats we need

They need at least 1 major (Reynolds) and 1 above average bat (Rosario) (or sure 1 superior 5.5+ WAR monster if they want to sign Machado next year), and the emergence of a high leverage right handed reliever (1+ WAR kind of guy, like Bednar).... without weakening the current short/long term core. I just mention that it's probably not 1-2 other bats unless that 1 bat is absolutely amazing. Or maybe you want to project Jazz as a 5-6 WAR guy, then sure that changes the dynamic quickly also, etc.

But likely, they need to make it at least 6+ WAR to get to the Phillies/Cardinals in the discussion for 5th/6th best team in the NL.


As a thought experiment would you do this. Two massive trades. I can't think of a scenario Pirates/Guardians say no here.

Reynolds/Bednar/Brubaker ---- > Eury, Meyer, Watson, J. Sanchez, Gerardo/Peguro, S. Reynolds, Soriano/Villalobos

Rosario + Fairly Valued Prospect --- > Garrett, Burdick


Then extension-palooza (these all comp out). "Let's be the braves."

-Reynolds 7/$125 (Reynolds is 28)
-Rosario 5/$75 (Rosario is 28)
-Jazz 6/$70 (if he'd take it) (Jazz is 25)
-Arraez 5/$55 (Arraez is 26)
-Luzardo 5/$35 + option (Luzardo is 25)
-Bednar 5/$24 + option (Bednar is 28, with low mileage)
-(Rogers and Cabrera next year)


This is where they'd be then. This is probably....$107-108m for 2023, the numbers are service time starting in 2023, and everyone after the -----> is the longterm prospect path with 6+ years of control

C - Fortes(5), Stallings(2) ---- > Mack, Hernandez
1B - Cooper(1) ---- > Berry
2B - Arraez(5) ---- > Edwards, I. Lewis, Morisette, Vargas
SS - Rosario(5), Wendle(1) ---- > Amaya, Nasim
3B - Segura(3), Berti(2) -----> Groshans, Cappe
LF - Reynolds(7), DLC(5) -----> Bleday
CF - Jazz (4-6)
RF - Garcia(3), Soler(1-2) ------> Jerar, Mesa. Jr., Gerardo/Peguro

SP RHP - Sandy(5), Cabrera(6), Brubaker(3), Cueto(2) ------ > Sixto, Miller
SP LHP - Luzardo(5), Rogers(4) ------> Eder, Fulton

RHP - Bednar(5), Chargois(3), Floro(2) ----> Enright, McCambley, Millbrandt, Others
LHP - Scott(3), Okert(3), Bleier(1) -----> Nardi, Simpson


So basically follow the service time math here.

C ---> A lot of hope with Fortes here, may need some help + Mack to work out
1B ---> Probably needs a stopgap 1B next year to bridge to Berry. He should work exclusively at 1B IMO in this hypothetical
2B ---> Set forever w/ Arraez, Segura, and bridges to some interesting 2B prospects
SS ---> Set forever w/ Rosario and Amaya
3B ---> Set forever w/ Segura bridging to Groshans/Cappe pencil'd in longterm.
LF ---> Set forever w/ Reynolds
CF --> Set forever w/ Jazz
RF --> Garcia under contract, and pray they internally develop some OF in a few years. Nothing to do here basically, but not set up forever as there is not a Groshans or Cappe here yet who will be given a chance
SP ---- > They have 6-9 SP at all times for years. You can never have enough SP so not set forever, but this is a lot of arm talent even moving Eury/Meyer/Garrett
RP --- > They have a lot of control via Bednar/lefties, and all the trickle down SP guys. Decent shape, could develop another high end guy for sure

In 2023, the team has a 43+ WAR team projection and is fighting Philly for last wild card. It's a toss-up.

In 2024, we're talking about stopgap starters/bench players at C, 1B, RF/DH, and maybe a bulk reliever arm. They might have most of this internally though if Fortes/Stallings play as they can, Berry is a fast mover, DLC/Bleday are solid, and they do get a RP or two out of Sixto/Enright/Soriano/Nance/others

In 2025, you we are getting far down the line, but assuming Berry is given his shot, this is likely C/bench depth and the pitching may still all be figured out.



Basically here, Reynolds/Rosario/Brubacker/Bednar + strategic extensions of 25-28 year olds (i.e. prime years) sets up a very very MLB club controlled team. So do we care about Eury/Meyer/Garrett/Watson? We all like them, but do we care if the MLB product is going to be this good and controlled where 2023/2024 can be used to completely rebuild the farm as there is going to be a very low reliance on it for 2-3 seasons?


I mention this as Eury should be virtually untouchable, but you can find ways to make it work. The alternative is, 2023 is going to be an 80 win team at best and more pitching is just traded next year. But the farm will be stronger. Just some food for though.

[Nick]

I think you'd run to have done that for Cabrera. Baty has been a pretty consistent FV55 prospect and bats are safer than pitchers. Luzardo has proved himself a bit so I can understand that, Cabrera still has massive reliever risk. Reports say Baty should stay at 3B, but worse case in a few years he shifts to 1B and Berry is the DH. That one is a no brainer to me.

I'd deal Luzardo before Cabrera. Cabrera reminds me so much of Sandy, he's actually better than Sandy was at this point of his career. The injury concerns are greater for him than they ever were for Sandy, but still.

[lou]

The problem is Cooper can't stay healthy/on the field. I think that's a big reason they're trying to get another one.

The problem here is Gurriel likely sucks and Arraez can play 1B. You can play Arraez 90 games at 2B / 50 1B, and get Wendle/Berti over to 2B who will be very competent.

So they shouldn't get Gurriel, they should trade for a longterm SS as that move helps 1B through a trickle down. It's the smartest thing they can do absent getting a real 4+ WAR star (like Reynolds). And as mentioned above, they should do BOTH if they want to win.

[lou]

I'd deal Luzardo before Cabrera. Cabrera reminds me so much of Sandy, he's actually better than Sandy was at this point of his career. The injury concerns are greater for him than they ever were for Sandy, but still.

Cabrera has a better pitch mix so he should be a better starter longterm as Luzardo is all max effort/low changeups so I do agree on some level, but on a pure value scale right now, I'd bet on Luzardo being a good 150 IP SP for years (with a very high reliever floor) as he has shown that, and Cabrera is a who knows and all projection. The unknown scares me, so if you can cash that in for a really notable bat, you do it.

Also I don't think we all have talked about this, but there was a report they offered Cabrera for Brendan Rodgers and the ROCKIES backed off. Now, I like Rodgers and think he'd be fine enough out of Coors despite the bad splits, but in no world would I do that trade, yet the Marlins were interested? So in this vein - do they think he is going to be a reliever as this doesn't make sense to me unless they think he's a reliever and/or that scared of health.

[lou]

https://theathletic.com/4115868/2023...sition-change/

"Gurriel could spend time at both second and third base for the Marlins, should he sign there"


WTF?

[rmc523]

https://theathletic.com/4115868/2023...sition-change/

"Gurriel could spend time at both second and third base for the Marlins, should he sign there"


WTF?

lol huh?

[sports24/7]

They need at least 1 major (Reynolds) and 1 above average bat (Rosario) (or sure 1 superior 5.5+ WAR monster if they want to sign Machado next year), and the emergence of a high leverage right handed reliever (1+ WAR kind of guy, like Bednar).... without weakening the current short/long term core. I just mention that it's probably not 1-2 other bats unless that 1 bat is absolutely amazing. Or maybe you want to project Jazz as a 5-6 WAR guy, then sure that changes the dynamic quickly also, etc.

But likely, they need to make it at least 6+ WAR to get to the Phillies/Cardinals in the discussion for 5th/6th best team in the NL.


As a thought experiment would you do this. Two massive trades. I can't think of a scenario Pirates/Guardians say no here.

Reynolds/Bednar/Brubaker ---- > Eury, Meyer, Watson, J. Sanchez, Gerardo/Peguro, S. Reynolds, Soriano/Villalobos

Rosario + Fairly Valued Prospect --- > Garrett, Burdick


Then extension-palooza (these all comp out). "Let's be the braves."

-Reynolds 7/$125 (Reynolds is 28)
-Rosario 5/$75 (Rosario is 28)
-Jazz 6/$70 (if he'd take it) (Jazz is 25)
-Arraez 5/$55 (Arraez is 26)
-Luzardo 5/$35 + option (Luzardo is 25)
-Bednar 5/$24 + option (Bednar is 28, with low mileage)
-(Rogers and Cabrera next year)


This is where they'd be then. This is probably....$107-108m for 2023, the numbers are service time starting in 2023, and everyone after the -----> is the longterm prospect path with 6+ years of control

C - Fortes(5), Stallings(2) ---- > Mack, Hernandez
1B - Cooper(1) ---- > Berry
2B - Arraez(5) ---- > Edwards, I. Lewis, Morisette, Vargas
SS - Rosario(5), Wendle(1) ---- > Amaya, Nasim
3B - Segura(3), Berti(2) -----> Groshans, Cappe
LF - Reynolds(7), DLC(5) -----> Bleday
CF - Jazz (4-6)
RF - Garcia(3), Soler(1-2) ------> Jerar, Mesa. Jr., Gerardo/Peguro

SP RHP - Sandy(5), Cabrera(6), Brubaker(3), Cueto(2) ------ > Sixto, Miller
SP LHP - Luzardo(5), Rogers(4) ------> Eder, Fulton

RHP - Bednar(5), Chargois(3), Floro(2) ----> Enright, McCambley, Millbrandt, Others
LHP - Scott(3), Okert(3), Bleier(1) -----> Nardi, Simpson


So basically follow the service time math here.

C ---> A lot of hope with Fortes here, may need some help + Mack to work out
1B ---> Probably needs a stopgap 1B next year to bridge to Berry. He should work exclusively at 1B IMO in this hypothetical
2B ---> Set forever w/ Arraez, Segura, and bridges to some interesting 2B prospects
SS ---> Set forever w/ Rosario and Amaya
3B ---> Set forever w/ Segura bridging to Groshans/Cappe pencil'd in longterm.
LF ---> Set forever w/ Reynolds
CF --> Set forever w/ Jazz
RF --> Garcia under contract, and pray they internally develop some OF in a few years. Nothing to do here basically, but not set up forever as there is not a Groshans or Cappe here yet who will be given a chance
SP ---- > They have 6-9 SP at all times for years. You can never have enough SP so not set forever, but this is a lot of arm talent even moving Eury/Meyer/Garrett
RP --- > They have a lot of control via Bednar/lefties, and all the trickle down SP guys. Decent shape, could develop another high end guy for sure

In 2023, the team has a 43+ WAR team projection and is fighting Philly for last wild card. It's a toss-up.

In 2024, we're talking about stopgap starters/bench players at C, 1B, RF/DH, and maybe a bulk reliever arm. They might have most of this internally though if Fortes/Stallings play as they can, Berry is a fast mover, DLC/Bleday are solid, and they do get a RP or two out of Sixto/Enright/Soriano/Nance/others

In 2025, you we are getting far down the line, but assuming Berry is given his shot, this is likely C/bench depth and the pitching may still all be figured out.



Basically here, Reynolds/Rosario/Brubacker/Bednar + strategic extensions of 25-28 year olds (i.e. prime years) sets up a very very MLB club controlled team. So do we care about Eury/Meyer/Garrett/Watson? We all like them, but do we care if the MLB product is going to be this good and controlled where 2023/2024 can be used to completely rebuild the farm as there is going to be a very low reliance on it for 2-3 seasons?


I mention this as Eury should be virtually untouchable, but you can find ways to make it work. The alternative is, 2023 is going to be an 80 win team at best and more pitching is just traded next year. But the farm will be stronger. Just some food for though.

That's way too much for me in the Pirates deal. I'm not trading Eury, period, unless you're getting a true superstar with a new contract, or a lot of years of control. And while Reynolds is a very good player, he's not a superstar, and only has 3 more years of control. Adding two more premium prospects, and more to Perez is way too much for me. That's bigger return than the Nationals got for Soto.

[fish16]

That's way too much for me in the Pirates deal. I'm not trading Eury, period, unless you're getting a true superstar with a new contract, or a lot of years of control. And while Reynolds is a very good player, he's not a superstar, and only has 3 more years of control. Adding two more premium prospects, and more to Perez is way too much for me. That's bigger return than the Nationals got for Soto.

Ya that's a ridiculous post. Eury is untouchable. And he needs to get off the rosario hype train. He's a thoroughly mediocre hitter and graded out negatively defensively in 3 of the 5 years he's played full seasons. To give him 15 million would be incredibly dumb. He is just 26, but for his career he's a 95 WRC+, and has graded out negatively both defensively and offensively for his entire career. He doesnt have much power, he doesnt get on base, he doesnt walk at all, he's not a prolific base stealer. Enough of it. If you can get him for cheap next year because of his proximity to free agency, sure, but he's not some guy you trade and give an enormous extension to. He doesnt have a single elite trait. 15 Million for a guy who is a decent player, about 2 WAR per year, from the marlins perspective, is dumb. That's not a guy you give up Garrett and Burdick for and then pay 15 million a year. If he was under control for 3+ years, sure, but as a pending free agent, that's bad business.

[fish16]

Guerriel has apparently played, SS, 3b, LF, and 2b in his career, albeit very briefly for all, and for the most part its been all 1b since 2019 and on aside from 2 innings at 3b. At this stage of his career, i highly doubt he makes the move back to any of those positions, nor does it make much sense. For me, let him and Cooper split 1b and DH, and let Soler play LF. That's the only real way to make it work other than relying on cooper to get injured again.

[fish16]

Any trade for Reynolds needs to be Rogers, Eder/Meyer, Bleday/Sanchez, and then whatever combo of lower level guys works for the pirates. That's more than fair in my opinion. If they ask for more than that, or require Cabrera or Luzardo, you tell them to fuck off and move onto the next guy who might be available.