2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

Signing Nimmo for 8 years at 20 million a year when he will be 30 in march would have been idiotic. they will never compete that way. the focus needs to be on why the fuck they cant develop a single hitter and get good production for cheap in the lineup like they have done so well with the rotation. Players dont hit free agency for the most part till they are 30. Unless that type of player is willing to take 4-5 deals and less, they would be idiotic to venture into the waters of the Bogaerts, Turners, Nimmo's, etc. They would simply never be able to build a competent team that way unless sherman himself wins the lottery.

Hopefully with Kim being on her own (no Jeter/Denbo), maybe draft targets for bats will change for the better? (hard to get much worse)

[fish16]

Hopefully with Kim being on her own (no Jeter/Denbo), maybe draft targets for bats will change for the better? (hard to get much worse)

she had full control since jeter left last march and took a guy with the 5th overall pick who is not in a single top 100 list and cant field.

[lou]

Signing Nimmo for 8 years at 20 million a year when he will be 30 in march would have been idiotic. they will never compete that way. the focus needs to be on why the fuck they cant develop a single hitter and get good production for cheap in the lineup like they have done so well with the rotation. Players dont hit free agency for the most part till they are 30. Unless that type of player is willing to take 4-5 deals and less, they would be idiotic to venture into the waters of the Bogaerts, Turners, Nimmo's, etc. They would simply never be able to build a competent team that way unless sherman himself wins the lottery.

I disagree. The cheapness of their club controlled pitching and various bats would allow them to sign a guy like Nimmo. Also the Mets only made it 8 years so they can deflect luxury tax (which is the Boegarts deal also). The Marlins could have done something over 5-6 years easily here. If they trade for Reynolds, they need to likely give him 8/$140m on the spot also to mention. Maybe they could get away with 7/$125.

And it's not just produce bats, it's produce STAR bats. They have a strong collection of role players right now, plus Jazz and Segura is likely above average. This team doesn't need to just develop another alright hitter (like Fortes or Anderson). This team needs to develop Yelich, Realmuto, Stanton, or prime-Ozuna. Some real killers along the lines of Sandy, Pablo, presumably Rogers, Luzardo, Cabrera, etc.. And that hasn't happened since those 4 which sucks for us. Hence - why you have to go out and sign Nimmo/Correa or sell out for Reynolds. They need *that* guy. A 4+ WAR guy in his prime. Really, they need two of them and not mortgage much pitching, and now we're talking.

[lou]

she had full control since jeter left last march and took a guy with the 5th overall pick who is not in a single top 100 list and cant field.

You're pulling a Lee here and presumably worried about a SSS which just had lower slugging.

He didn't have a bad debut even if not a great one. Maybe he will suck like Bleday, but we're 2 years from knowing. Let's not cast stones until they actually turn into Hermida, Brinson, Harrison, VVM, Scott, etc. He was universally considered a top 10 pick so while I too would focus on 2B/SS/CF/SP guys that early, maybe they are on to something and he's more than Andrew Vaughn/Spencer Torkelson/etc. This is a total wait and see.

[fish16]

You're pulling a Lee here and presumably worried about a SSS which just had lower slugging.

He didn't have a bad debut even if not a great one. Maybe he will suck like Bleday, but we're 2 years from knowing. Let's not cast stones until they actually turn into Hermida, Brinson, Harrison, VVM, Scott, etc. He was universally considered a top 10 pick so while I too would focus on 2B/SS/CF/SP guys that early, maybe they are on to something and he's more than Andrew Vaughn/Spencer Torkelson/etc. This is a total wait and see.

this isnt based on the results, it's based on every scouts assessment of him and his lack of tools. Theres a reason not a single publication seems to think very much of him.

[fish16]

I disagree. The cheapness of their club controlled pitching and various bats would allow them to sign a guy like Nimmo. Also the Mets only made it 8 years so they can deflect luxury tax (which is the Boegarts deal also). The Marlins could have done something over 5-6 years easily here. If they trade for Reynolds, they need to likely give him 8/$140m on the spot also to mention. Maybe they could get away with 7/$125.

And it's not just produce bats, it's produce STAR bats. They have a strong collection of role players right now, plus Jazz and Segura is likely above average. This team doesn't need to just develop another alright hitter (like Fortes or Anderson). This team needs to develop Yelich, Realmuto, Stanton, or prime-Ozuna. Some real killers along the lines of Sandy, Pablo, presumably Rogers, Luzardo, Cabrera, etc.. And that hasn't happened since those 4 which sucks for us. Hence - why you have to go out and sign Nimmo/Correa or sell out for Reynolds. They need *that* guy. A 4+ WAR guy in his prime. Really, they need two of them and not mortgage much pitching, and now we're talking.

Why would nimmo take 5-6 years when he's being offered 8 years? Unless we start paying him 30-35 million over those 5 years to make the money even, it makes no sense. And if we did that, it wouldnt make sense for us either.

The issue is not signing huge name free agents to way too long deals. The issue is not developing any bats themselves, and then the issue is they dont get the opportunity to take advantage of developing those bats and signing them to big extensions early to make them affordable to a small market team like us. That's how we will compete. They should sign jazz long term now if he signs a Braves type extension.

That is the reason the braves are set to contend for titles for the next 10 years. Their payroll as of right now for 2023 is only 177 million, and they have probably 10-15 legitimate stud/long term pieces under control for years to come. They pay their guys when theyve earned it and before they end up costing too much long term to keep them all. Doing that allows them to sign guys like Olsen and Murphy to big deals as complementary pieces. Just signing huge stars to big money and long amounts of years will lead to a huge lack of flexibility here unless they take care of their own guys early enough. They did the right thing with Sandy, they should do the same thing with Jazz, Luzardo, and Cabrera, and possibly Eury, even if it costs them a little more this year. If they truly believe in those guys and are willing to risk potential injury issues down the line, you sign those guys to super long term deals immediately and have a cheap core for years. Each side has a risk reward, so it makes sense for each. From the team perspective, you spend more money up front and risk paying too much down the line if the player gets injured or regresses. From the players perspective, you get set for life no matter what and risk potentially not cashing in even more years down the line. It makes sense for both sides. Rays do the same thing as the braves on a much smaller scale and it allows them to compete as well. Ng needs to have vision and start locking these guys down. It would bring more fans out as well i can guarantee you that when the fans see some long term investments of the teams best players.

[lou]

Why would nimmo take 5-6 years when he's being offered 8 years? Unless we start paying him 30-35 million over those 5 years to make the money even, it makes no sense. And if we did that, it wouldnt make sense for us either.

The issue is not signing huge name free agents to way too long deals. The issue is not developing any bats themselves, and then the issue is they dont get the opportunity to take advantage of developing those bats and signing them to big extensions early to make them affordable to a small market team like us. That's how we will compete. They should sign jazz long term now if he signs a Braves type extension.

That is the reason the braves are set to contend for titles for the next 10 years. Their payroll as of right now for 2023 is only 177 million, and they have probably 10-15 legitimate stud/long term pieces under control for years to come. They pay their guys when theyve earned it and before they end up costing too much long term to keep them all. Doing that allows them to sign guys like Olsen and Murphy to big deals as complementary pieces. Just signing huge stars to big money and long amounts of years will lead to a huge lack of flexibility here unless they take care of their own guys early enough. They did the right thing with Sandy, they should do the same thing with Jazz, Luzardo, and Cabrera, and possibly Eury, even if it costs them a little more this year. If they truly believe in those guys and are willing to risk potential injury issues down the line, you sign those guys to super long term deals immediately and have a cheap core for years. Each side has a risk reward, so it makes sense for each. From the team perspective, you spend more money up front and risk paying too much down the line if the player gets injured or regresses. From the players perspective, you get set for life no matter what and risk potentially not cashing in even more years down the line. It makes sense for both sides. Rays do the same thing as the braves on a much smaller scale and it allows them to compete as well. Ng needs to have vision and start locking these guys down. It would bring more fans out as well i can guarantee you that when the fans see some long term investments of the teams best players.

For the bold, it's both.

And the way the Nimmo/Boegarts deals are structured is for luxury tax deflection. The salaries are based off less years on the deal, and then they tac on a little to deflect the tax with another year. It's a thing we don't think about because Marlins are nowhere near this, but important. Effectively, the Marlins could have paid Nimmo 6/$140-150 and that would likely blow away (or at least be better) than the 8/$162m he got. A 36 year old Nimmo can still sign new contracts (and he should age gracefully with his bat discipline in at least good DH roles, and those guys are making a lot this offseason. See Joc, Gallo, Bell, etc.), and he'd have made multiple millions with no state income tax and being paid faster (i.e. money not spread to years 7 and 8). But the Mets deal was the best he got (or wanted to play for the winner) so that's that. Marlins are cheap to a fault.

Olsen and Murphy are core-stars not complimentary pieces BTW, and the Marlins trading for Reynolds would be that same equation where Reynolds immediately needs $125-140m on a 7-8 year deal. Olson isn't exactly an arbitration buyout here also. He got PAID. They SHOULD be doing that with Reynolds, as well as not blowing every VVM/Misner/Scott/Bleday pick and developing their own. They need to be better at everything. As stated, it's both. Nimmo is frankly a real missing piece on this team. Plop him in CF and sign Chapman, and you're looking great adding Segura, Chargois, Cueto, and keeping the young SP fully intact. They'd be throwing bullets and have insane trade capital at the deadline. Very sad for us.

Sandy was absolutely the right decision. We've talked about this before and I'd try a buy-low Luzardo (5/$30-35) deal for sure, but I'd wait on Jazz, Cabrera, and everyone else and see what they do this year. They still have a lot of time to deal with them. Jazz is controlled for 4, so is Rogers who is another option, and Cabrera 6. Next year is the sweet spot for Jazz for sure if he has a big year. He is a bit scary like Javy Baez though so we'll see what he does. Big picture, if they believe in Luzardo they should try and work something work out, but the counter to that is, if I'm Luzardo I'm betting on myself as I was awesome last year and I can significantly raise my stock with a big 150 innings. That deal almost doubles in size a year closer to free agency and a big year next year, with the downside being I'll still get a $3-3.5m arbitration tender if I'm bad next year as they aren't giving up on me. So it works both ways. The Marlins guys are a bit different than the Braves guys today, besides Sandy.

[lou]

this isnt based on the results, it's based on every scouts assessment of him and his lack of tools. Theres a reason not a single publication seems to think very much of him.

SSS

And they probably rank him lower because of no position. If he hits .280/.370/.475+ none of us will care. We'll see what happens.

[fish16]

SSS

And they probably rank him lower because of no position. If he hits .280/.370/.475+ none of us will care. We'll see what happens.

It is of course too early, but given the actual scouts reporting on him, he's Colin Moran 2.0. And that's why you dont draft all bat older college hitters at 1b/DH. Just a monumentally stupid pick from the beginning. I hope he pans out regardless, but just pure process wise, it's an incredibly dumb pick.

[fish16]

For the bold, it's both.

And the way the Nimmo/Boegarts deals are structured is for luxury tax deflection. The salaries are based off less years on the deal, and then they tac on a little to deflect the tax with another year. It's a thing we don't think about because Marlins are nowhere near this, but important. Effectively, the Marlins could have paid Nimmo 6/$140-150 and that would likely blow away (or at least be better) than the 8/$162m he got. A 36 year old Nimmo can still sign new contracts (and he should age gracefully with his bat discipline in at least good DH roles, and those guys are making a lot this offseason. See Joc, Gallo, Bell, etc.), and he'd have made multiple millions with no state income tax and being paid faster (i.e. money not spread to years 7 and 8). But the Mets deal was the best he got (or wanted to play for the winner) so that's that. Marlins are cheap to a fault.

Olsen and Murphy are core-stars not complimentary pieces BTW, and the Marlins trading for Reynolds would be that same equation where Reynolds immediately needs $125-140m on a 7-8 year deal. Olson isn't exactly an arbitration buyout here also. He got PAID. They SHOULD be doing that with Reynolds, as well as not blowing every VVM/Misner/Scott/Bleday pick and developing their own. They need to be better at everything. As stated, it's both. Nimmo is frankly a real missing piece on this team. Plop him in CF and sign Chapman, and you're looking great adding Segura, Chargois, Cueto, and keeping the young SP fully intact. They'd be throwing bullets and have insane trade capital at the deadline. Very sad for us.

Sandy was absolutely the right decision. We've talked about this before and I'd try a buy-low Luzardo (5/$30-35) deal for sure, but I'd wait on Jazz, Cabrera, and everyone else and see what they do this year. They still have a lot of time to deal with them. Jazz is controlled for 4, so is Rogers who is another option, and Cabrera 6. Next year is the sweet spot for Jazz for sure if he has a big year. He is a bit scary like Javy Baez though so we'll see what he does. Big picture, if they believe in Luzardo they should try and work something work out, but the counter to that is, if I'm Luzardo I'm betting on myself as I was awesome last year and I can significantly raise my stock with a big 150 innings. That deal almost doubles in size a year closer to free agency and a big year next year, with the downside being I'll still get a $3-3.5m arbitration tender if I'm bad next year as they aren't giving up on me. So it works both ways. The Marlins guys are a bit different than the Braves guys today, besides Sandy.

What im saying is you can sign core-star type players like that off of trades as opposed to free agency if you do what they did and sign your developed talent long term early. They can afford those type of contracts, and so would we to an extent, when you have Albies never making above 7 million, Acuna never making above 17 million, Austin riley making in the teens for years and never above the low 20s, Michael Harris never making above 10 for years to come. You dont wait, you sign clear stars like Jazz now and get them long term for cheaper. It absolutely might not work out, but it's a calculated risk you absolutely need to take to build a long term sustainable team. It is an up front investment for a future savings with a slight risk but an enormous potential reward. . They need to show vision, evaluate their own talent from within, and sign him, Cabrera, Luzardo, and Eury long term. It's a high risk for a 5x bigger reward.

They need to trade for Reynolds and give him that olsen/murphy type extension, but the way you make that work long term and build a great sustainable core that this market can afford is by having vision and signing these young guys to very long term deals early and spend money now to save money in the future.

Michael Harris might bottom out next year for all we know, but because the initial investment due to his proximity to free agency is not significant, they can afford to eat that, while also maintaining the enormous benefit of a potential huge savings down the road.

The way to go is not signing guys to 180+ million deals over 8 years in their 30's in free agency. It's to lock up your own super early, then trade for those alternate pieces before they hit free agency where everyone can bid on them and then sign those types of guys long term. Teams like the dodgers can afford to pay guys 30+ million well into their 40's. We can't, and our team building strategy should adjust accordingly. Plus it helps build good will and a sign of commitment to a fan base that desperately needs it.

[fish16]

chapman signs with the royals so that's that. Ill take anthony reyes, andrew chafin, or Corey Knebel (small contract),

[fish16]

chapman is only 1 year, 3.75 million according to nightengale. That is a steal if he regains his form and is relatively nothing if he still has control issues. A deal we should be making. They need to sign 1 of these last few quality relievers left.

[Namaste]

Chapmen to Royals. I LIKE IT

[Namaste]

He’s garbage

[fish16]

He’s garbage

he's literally one of the best, most dominant, and most consistent closers for 11 consecutive years coming off a single down year in the most pressurized place to play in baseball. for 3.75 million for a bounceback he would have been a great investment. We're paying bleier similar money. Chapman's worst year last year was similar to tanner scott's numbers last year. IDC if it's him or another guy still available, but if they dont sign any of the remaining guys, they deserve all the 1 run losses and blown leads that will inevitably follow.