2013 Miami Marlins Thread: Looking Forward

[HUGG]

Todd's being a total bush, as usual

[Erick]

.341/.457/.422...Gathright's AAA line in '07.

Fucking terrible. Shitty player.

[Big Z]

.341/.457/.422...Gathright's AAA line in '07.

Fucking terrible. Shitty player.

Bryan Petersen AAA line in 2011:

.351/.434/.569

------------

By the way, I read a piece yesterday that stated that Loria and Jennings wanted to go after Fielder after they missed out on Pujols, but Samson told them not to.

2. Marlins

Beginning with the idiotic Fidel Castro comment, this year has been an utter failure for Ozzie Guillen, and the sentiment seems to be that his bosses won't necessarily let the $7.5 million that remains over the next three years tie them to Guillen. The Marlins aren't expected to have an excess of money to spend again on free agents following a disappointing first season at the gate. So a potential managerial change might be the biggest move they make – if they really are willing to swallow the $7.5 mil to go.

The Marlins so-so attendance in their beautiful new Marlins Park (they'll draw just a bit more than two million) is due mostly to the team's poor performance and the mindset of Floridians who won't attend anything without ample reason. But Guillen's ill-advised glowing remarks about the Cuban dictator Castro certainly set a bad tone.

Guillen could still survive, as a change would amount to a quick admission of error. More likely are front-office changes following the team's startlingly bad season.

The team that has made a habit of out-producing its payroll finally underperformed. But the bigger picture issue has been some apparent ongoing front office factions and disconnects.

Larry Beinfest, the president for baseball operations, may well wind up going, as Danny Knobler first reported here weeks ago. Like Guillen, he has a deal for three more years. If Beinfest's time is up, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria will likely turn to longtime top exec Dan Jennings, who also has a deal through 2015 and has been prevented from interviewing for several outside GM jobs.

Rival teams have noted a bit of a split in Miami with Jennings lining up with Loria, and Beinfest and GM Michael Hill appearing to be more aligned with club president David Samson. At times to outsiders, it's looked like they've suffered from the “too many cooks'' syndrome (for instance, Loria and Jennings wanted to go for Prince Fielder after Albert Pujols turned them down, but Samson rejected that idea) .

The organizational higher-ups will gather in New York immediately after the season to sort this all out. It's tough to forecast Marlins moves, as Loria is not predictable. But change seems to be in the air, especially in the front office.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jo...hers-on-bubble

[Blackout Pact]

Enough of this baseball talk. Let's get back to the real matter at hand: the argument between Tood, Lou and Erick.

[HUGG]

Tood!

that should be his new name

[Ramp]

I find it hard to believe that Loria and Jennings didn't think about making an offer to Prince Fielder because David Samson told them not to.

[Big Z]

If Beinfest is getting fired, where does Jennings go? President of Baseball Operations or GM? I am confused since we have a President of Baseball Operations (Beinfest) and GM (Hill). I am guessing Beinfest calls the shots and Hill's his bitch.

Just as the article says, there's way too many people with direction (Too many cooks syndrome). It's freaking ridiculous.

[lou]

Luckily, shitty players that Lou inexplicably falls in love with rarely find their way to the Marlins.

I hate to dignify you with a response, however I don't understand how a guy who has averaged a 3.9 WAR the past 6 seasons aged 22-27 is "shitty." Maybe you can explain that to me. His short comings with his contact rates/inconsistency are obvious, but the bottom line is he has performed. In fact, if you do a 2007-2012 split, BJ Upton is 5th in WAR in CF those years (Granderson, Hamilton, Beltran, Victorino). That overall base consistency doesn't count for something? Since you apparently take everything so literally, I don't think BJ Upton is the 5th best CF in baseball right now, he's probably more in the 7-12 range (he is 10th currently, and this is one of his weaker years). I don't see anything wrong with this.

Even if he regresses dramatically, he's what a 2.5 WAR player, which would be an average starter at his position? If the price for BJ is right in free agency, I would say 4-5 years at around $45-50, that would be a good signing for the franchise. If it gets nuts and someone offers something ludicrous like 5/$75, by all means no. The risk/reward doesn't make sense at that point. The floor is an average starter, and he clearly has upside to do much better than that based on his career/age/projection. Likewise, no one is going to be surprised if he goes all Granderson power one of these years. I think he would be worth the risk at the right price, especially concerning the Marlins lack of a true long term CF. Ruggiano isn't that guy (although I do think he will be useful for a few seasons). By all accounts, Yelich is a LF from every report out there. I guess this makes me an asshole?

More so, I am not in love with BJ Upton. He just could be a good fit for the franchise, and it's a good year to go CF shopping as a good half dozen are available. If I could pick the non-Hamilton CF out there who may be available to get, it wouldn't be BJ. I'd trade the non Yelich/Fernandez farm for Span. He's safer and cheaper than BJ long term. But who knows what Minnesota's front office is going to do. BJ will be available and they should look into him and Bourn at a minimum and see if they aren't priced out of their value.

Actually, I have pointed this out fairly regularly over the years as far as Lou is concerned, both on here and on the board who shall not be named. This didnt come out of thin air. I just get a wild hair every now and then and honestly there have been other players, Gathright was just the most ridiculous(and no, he was never "pretty good", Gathright at his best could be considered "not completely worthless").

You have? Who are you? Are you Marlins2003? or his kid? And it's comical to 'defend' any argument for a player who completely failed at the MLB level, however he would have been a better flyer for the organization than Reggie fucking Abercrombie or Joe Borchard and cost relatively nothing as a trade acquisition. I don't know why you have an axe to grind on a rather stupid move and how this is any sort of argument as to any future discussion.

I thought Hermida was going to be this awesome almost Brian Giles in his prime guy, Uggla was going to be a poor man's Ty Wigginton, and Maybin a better Mike Cameron. Why don't you go big if you want to talk shit.

Its ok to be a dick from time to time.

I think you [Erick] are a fucking tool too but you arent worth the time or energy.

Thanks sweetie. I am glad I am worth your time. Stop being such a Tood.

[Ramp]

I really hope Tood catches on

[Valid]

I don't think an "average starter" is worth 10-12 million dollars per year on a long-term contract. Sorry.

B.J. Upton is tough to evaluate because different sites don't value him the same way. BR doesn't value him like fangraphs does. A lot of his value comes from his defense yet fangraphs has him as an average defender this year.

I don't see how you can easily say that we'd be "lucky" to get him. Seems like a risk to me, especially for a team that doesn't project to be contending anytime soon.

Upton's tools don't necessarily get better with age; they tend to get worse.

If you're telling me that Upton is a guaranteed 4 WAR, cool.

Saying an average starter is worth 10-12 million seems like throwing money around for no reason.

Yeah. This.

Given that the FA market is very slim this year and CFs are very tough to come by as it is, Upton is going to command a lot more than he is worth, possibly even more than $10-12M. I mean, we all saw the type of contracts that Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford got, so I don't think for a second that Upton isn't going to use those deals as a model for what he should get (Swisher has already said he is going to do just that).

Upton hasn't put up a good OBP since 2008. Since then, he has put up OBPs of .313, .322, .331, and, this year, a paltry .302. His K rate has gone from 20.9% in '08 to 27.4% this year, and his out-of-zone swing percentage has more than doubled since '08: 15% to 33.1%. That is just crazy. To add to this, his contact percentage since '08 has dipped from 80.5% to 69.1%.

He isn't all that spectacular defensively, either. He was actually fairly average in 2010 and 2011, and this season, he has actually been below average with a -0.3 UZR and a -0.5 UZR/150.

Sorry, but that is not the kind of player I want the FO to invest big money in long-term, especially taking into account how much we spent this past offseason just to come in last place in the division.

[lou]

That is all nice and I get it, but still ignores a 3.9 WAR average (fangraphs) last 6 years, and if you want to use the baseball reference one, he has averaged a 3.1 WAR the last 6 years. Five of those years he has been 3 or better. Pretty consistent despite those lower OBP and poor contact rates. He's gonna be over 3 WAR this season using either formula. If that's the baseline, his speed and defense keep him an average starter as the downside, and his power potential lends some belief of upside, I don't see a problem if the price is right.

A 3+ WAR player in free agency is a good signing for $10-12 a year, especially ages 28-31 range. If you are right and the salaries sky rocket to say 5/$75 (no way Crawford/Werth territory), I would be hesitant too and pass because at some point the risk/reward makes it not worth it and that point you are paying for pure projection. $45-50 over 4-5 years seems fair to me and wouldn't kill payroll even if he's "average."

If the price is right, he fits. It's that simple. I'm not saying there aren't better ideas, there are, but this would not be a bad option if the salary is right. He's a pretty good player at a position of need.

[Valid]

I understand the 3.9 WAR and everything, but Upton is a perfect example of why I don't like using WAR as a be-all-end-all stat. He has been an average to below average hitter (depending on how you look at it) and an average defensive player for several years now.

I mean, Cameron Maybin had a higher WAR than Stanton last year, and I don't think there is a single one of us that would rather have had Maybin than Stanton.

I think the stats I posted about Upton signify a rapidly declining player who is going to get drastically overpaid this offseason.

[Bobbob1313]

Yeah, I think WAR is a fine stat, but I also don't think it is accurately accounting for BJ Upton's contributions.

[Valid]

Bobbob and I just agreed. The world must be coming to an end tonight.

[Bobbob1313]

Fuck you, Jeff Green eats babies.