2013 Miami Marlins Thread: Looking Forward

[Erick]

On a 1 year deal it makes sense not to spend cash but if u offer Upton or Bourn a 4 year deal,u got a CF for 8-10 mil a year for the next 4 years

They are both going to get a lot of money.

There are conflicting reports on how good Upton really is and how much he is really worth. As of right now, his .OBP is under .300 (ok, maybe not, it's gone up to .301 recently!).

While I like Michael Bourn, I hope we don't give him a 4-year deal. Michael Bourn's value comes primarily from his amazing defense in CF. Speed is the first thing to go in a player. If Michael Bourn loses value defensively, you have another bad contract. It might be nice the first couple of years to watch him play defense in our park, but if you're paying him for 4, you want him to be good for 4 (and in this case, the latter part of the contract is probably more important since we're less likely to contend next year/soon).

[Big Z]

I think it makes plenty of sense.

Why spend on a weak free agent class if it's going to make no difference to the bottom line (making/not making the playoffs)?

I'd rather not spend foolishly again.
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This is funny considering you weren't saying those things at the time they happened. You even liked the Heath Bell signing, didn't you? Aren't you the guy who said "no more Leo problems" or whatever it was?

+ Loria wanted C.J. Wilson who took less money to play in his hometown. I don't think you can blame Loria for that.

I did like Bell, and I still do. I know the guy can turn it around, but we had the perfect guy in Cishek (who I liked for the job before the signing).

I agree, we did try for CJ and he decided to go home. Nothing we can do about that, but we could've still invested our free $ in a more productive way.
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They are both going to get a lot of money.

There are conflicting reports on how good Upton really is and how much he is really worth. As of right now, his .OBP is under .300 (ok, maybe not, it's gone up to .301 recently!).

While I like Michael Bourn, I hope we don't give him a 4-year deal. Michael Bourn's value comes primarily from his amazing defense in CF. Speed is the first thing to go in a player. If Michael Bourn loses value defensively, you have another bad contract. It might be nice the first couple of years to watch him play defense in our park, but if you're paying him for 4, you want him to be good for 4 (and in this case, the latter part of the contract is probably more important since we're less likely to contend next year/soon).

I am already tired of acquiring leadoff hitters. We need some pop in the lineup. If we are going to get an OF'er, I'm going all in on Justin Upton. We have some more pieces to offer now and I don't feel we have to get rid of Yelich or Fernandez to get a guy like that.

[emkayseven]

Correct me if I'm wrong but 3B and CF are the two toughest positions to find right now, right?

[Erick]

I did like Bell, and I still do. I know the guy can turn it around, but we had the perfect guy in Cishek (who I liked for the job before the signing).

I agree, we did try for CJ and he decided to go home. Nothing we can do about that, but we could've still invested our free $ in a more productive way.
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I am already tired of acquiring leadoff hitters. We need some pop in the lineup. If we are going to get an OF'er, I'm going all in on Justin Upton. We have some more pieces to offer now and I don't feel we have to get rid of Yelich or Fernandez to get a guy like that.

It just seems like a weird thing to bring up considering you were the person most excited about the Heath Bell signing/I've never really seen you post anything like that about Cishek.

As for Justin Upton, I do not think we can get him without giving up Yelich/Fernandez. For what it's worth, I'd love to give up Yelich+ for a player like Upton just like I would've liked to give up Morrison/Nolasco/whatever for Upton back when it was a rumor.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but 3B and CF are the two toughest positions to find right now, right?

3B is definitely the toughest.

[Big Z]

I wonder what Turner or Eovaldi can get us back in a return out there.

[lou]

Ya but Solano doesn't cost 10-12 million a season. Loria has made it clear he will NOT spend money next year other than to put a "competitive" team on the field

His thinking is why spend money on BJ Upton in 2013 when the team will still be bad?

Which makes NO sense since if u get better players the team will get better but that is what he thinks.
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Smart Idea would be to trade JJ for a package of prospects(ML Ready Arms and a young position guy who is close to ready) then with the money saved sign a CF for 3 years or so

Signing BJ Upton, who despite everyone saying "isn't very good" seems to put up a good amount of 4 WAR seasons (4 of last 6 years, a 3.2 so far this year and counting which is solid and a 2.4 in 2009) and he is 28 years old. I think at worst he is an average starter which is probably worth the money if he falls in around 4-5 at $12 a year, and he does have upside if he ever puts it completely together. That isn't just spending money on 2013. That is signing a guy to deal with the position for when you are good. Huge organizational hole. If not BJ, go trade Hand, Ozuna and someone else for Span. They can't just assume they can fill the position later. CF class is super deep. This is the perfect time to get one.

Any 2B/3B free agent option they get is not going to cost $10-12 million a year. They would be looking at some shmuck like Macier Izturis or Alberto Callaspo on a 1/$2.5 deal or something.

[Mainge]

Didn't know average starter equaled very good. Good to know.

[Erick]

at worst he is an average starter which is probably worth the money if he falls in around 4-5 at $12 a year

I don't understand how that makes sense.
I'd much rather play Ruggiano in CF if that's the case.

[lou]

Didn't know average starter equaled very good. Good to know.

I'm not sure what your point is besides trying to be sarcastic, but BJ has averaged a 3.9 WAR the last 6 years. I get the strikeout rates and lower OBP is a little scary, but it's hard to ignore a 6 season sample sizes ages 22-27 where a guy is basically a 4 WAR player. If the price is right, he could be a great signing and fill an enormous organizational hole. The Marlins would be extremely lucky to get him.
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I don't understand how that makes sense.
I'd much rather play Ruggiano in CF if that's the case.

I'm sorry? If you can get a solid starter in free agency, it's worth $10-12 million a year. Look around baseball at free agency prices?

And I'd much rather play Ruggiano in LF and get him a platoon partner for right handers. I'm not building future teams on a 30 year old with a .416 BABIP, but I have no problem handing him LF next year to see if he's still productive hitting .260 in a Cody kind of way.

The team needs a CF. This isn't a profound theory I came up with. It's obvious.

[Erick]

I'm not sure what your point is besides trying to be sarcastic, but BJ has averaged a 3.9 WAR the last 6 years. I get the strikeout rates and lower OBP is a little scary, but it's hard to ignore a 6 season sample sizes ages 22-27 where a guy is basically a 4 WAR player. If the price is right, he could be a great signing and fill an enormous organizational hole. The Marlins would be extremely lucky to get him.
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I'm sorry? If you can get a solid starter in free agency, it's worth $10-12 million a year. Look around baseball at free agency prices?

And I'd much rather play Ruggiano in LF and get him a platoon partner for right handers. I'm not building future teams on a 30 year old with a .416 BABIP, but I have no problem handing him LF next year to see if he's still productive hitting .260 in a Cody kind of way.

The team needs a CF. This isn't a profound theory I came up with. It's obvious.

I don't think an "average starter" is worth 10-12 million dollars per year on a long-term contract. Sorry.

B.J. Upton is tough to evaluate because different sites don't value him the same way. BR doesn't value him like fangraphs does. A lot of his value comes from his defense yet fangraphs has him as an average defender this year.

I don't see how you can easily say that we'd be "lucky" to get him. Seems like a risk to me, especially for a team that doesn't project to be contending anytime soon.

Upton's tools don't necessarily get better with age; they tend to get worse.

If you're telling me that Upton is a guaranteed 4 WAR, cool.

Saying an average starter is worth 10-12 million seems like throwing money around for no reason.

Ruggiano's .BABIP is unsustainable, but I'm guessing he can put up a .740-.750ish (if not better) .OPS with above average defense. In other words, we have B.J. Upton with an extra 10-12 million dollars to spend on other areas of the team.

Also, if you're looking for a "worst-case scenario, average starter still worth the money" type of deal, guys like Angel Pagan and Cody Ross are available at a cheaper price.

[lou]

I just don't get this front office. They can maintain a payroll around $100 million and do this:

-Add legitimate CF
-Add a legitimate 3rd SP/200 IP
-Add a stopgap 2B/3B opposite Bonifacio
-Add 1-3 veteran cheap bench bats/maybe reliever
-Buyout Stanton for 7
-Swallow your pride and move Nolasco and Eovaldi to the bullpen

This is a good team

C - Buck/Brantly
1B - Lomo
2B - Bonifacio/Veteran 2B/3B
3B - Bonifacio/Veteran 2B/3B
SS - Reyes
LF - Rugg
CF - Legit free agent
RF - Staton
B - Dobbs, Solano, catcher, two more veteran infielders

SP - Johnson, Buerhle, Free agent 3, Turner, Leblanc/Hand
Pen - Cishek, Bell, Nolasco, Eovaldi, Webb Dunn, Jennings/whoever

And if shit goes right, yelich, fernandez, conley, and maybe some others are coming up in July.

Commits to longterm needs in CF and rotation, a ton of money comes off the books after 2013 to account for reyes/buerhle/stanton raises in 2014, and only thing on paper that doesn't have a body is 3B (which according to TJ, there are 2 in 13 draft worthy of top 6-8 picks and Marlins should be able to get one).

I don't get it. It's an easy offseason. They have to do this not just to start setting up the team for success when the "kids" start peaking, but to show the fan base they aren't complete dickheads. Do they not realize they are going to sell no season tickets next year?

It's just insane. I can't get over it.
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I don't think an "average starter" is worth 10-12 million dollars per year on a long-term contract. Sorry.

B.J. Upton is tough to evaluate because different sites don't value him the same way. BR doesn't value him like fangraphs does. A lot of his value comes from his defense yet fangraphs has him as an average defender this year.

I don't see how you can easily say that we'd be "lucky" to get him. Seems like a risk to me, especially for a team that doesn't project to be contending anytime soon.

Upton's tools don't necessarily get better with age; they tend to get worse.

If you're telling me that Upton is a guaranteed 4 WAR, cool.

Saying an average starter is worth 10-12 million seems like throwing money around for no reason.

Ruggiano's .BABIP is unsustainable, but I'm guessing he can put up a .740-.750ish (if not better) .OPS with above average defense. In other words, we have B.J. Upton with an extra 10-12 million dollars to spend on other areas of the team.

Also, if you're looking for a "worst-case scenario, average starter still worth the money" type of deal, guys like Angel Pagan and Cody Ross are available at a cheaper price.

Well you mighty not like that, but that's what they cost. And great, let's have a whole outfield of good problems if you want to project Ruggiano to the 4 WAR level. Sounds awesome. Also I know its an example, but I wouldn't expect a Cody Ross reunion. Pagan could be interesting but I think he may cost the same annual as BJ, just a year or so less. He's having a nice year. Does that really change anything for discussion purposes as to what they should do this offseason?

And yes, the Marlins will be lucky to sign any major free agent after what they pulled. They will need to move fast and offer legit fair market offers and not fuck around.

I'm expecting disaster, but I can hope. Hopefully they at least buyout Stanton among the crap moves they are going to make. At least we know that when they sell the team in a few years the new administration at least still has him.

[Erick]

I want Nolasco to stay in the rotation. See what happens the first few months in '13. If he does well, trade him. If he doesn't, it's the last year of the contract, anyway.

I don't understand why you'd want to move him to the bullpen. It's not as if the difference between playoffs/no playoffs is whether or not Nolasco stays in the rotation. He's not worse than "LeBlanc/Hand," and he'll probably put up similar, if not better, #'s than Turner next year.

He's also not going to gain value closing because the saves are going to go to Cishek (who's earned the role this year) or Bell (who's also getting paid a shitload of money).

Lets keep Nolasco in the rotation one more year and never watch him pitch for the Marlins again after '13, please.

[Big Z]

I'd insert Ruggs in CF and try to acquire Ludwick, Ross or Swisher (depending on how much $ they want).

Nolasco is not a guy I want to pitch another inning in a Marlins uniform again. Get rid of Nolasco.

I would love to replace Nolasco with Anibal and let the rest of the rotation work itself out. Starters 1-2-3 would be JJ Buehrle and Anibal.

[Erick]

How do you "get rid of Nolasco?" It's not as if teams are lining up to acquire him via trade.

[Big Z]

Don't expect to receive anything in return.