FanGraphs: Don’t Crucify the Marlins for Making Smart Moves

[lou]

But on the flipside, if we spend the money stupidly just to spend it, I think that's even worse.

Like if my options are give BJ Upton 13 million a year or save money for a 2014 FA, I'd rather do the latter.


Because BJ Upton isn't very good.

It's tough to say how I feel about him when 4/6 years he is throwing up 4+ WARs and is going to be in absolute 28-32 prime on a 3-5 year deal. Bourn and Melky are just tremendous lately. Melky falls into that 28-32 range, and Bourn would be 30-34 range.

I can see the bad in all of them, BJ fluctuates like crazy, whiffs a ton and can't hit for periods of time, Bourn has no power and if he slows down end of that deal, he'll literally be Juan Pierre useless (even though JP doing good this year), and Melky, despite a year and a half of sheer bashing, could still stop hitting and could he really cover all that ground in CF over life of the deal.

I get all of it. I just think it's coming. That's the deepest FA position next year, and I think based on all of their past performance and age, they are probably all worth a gamble to this front office. Don't know if it will work, but I think it's coming. Even if it's Victorino for 3 years and not one of those 3 "bigger" ones. They have missed on center field for almost a decade. Literally.

[Bobbob1313]

It's tough to say how I feel about him when 4/6 years he is throwing up 4+ WARs

Problem with this is that's only if you are sold on FG's WAR as a definitive measure of value.

Fangraphs has him at 21 WAR since 07.
B-R.com has him at 12.1.

That's a pretty huge gap. Not sure I'm willing to say "He's a 4+ win player."

[Anonymous]

I'm sorry I am outlaying a rational 3 year salary outlay for the franchise based off the team just shedding massive levels of payroll.

The entire last 2 days is JOHNSON OMG. Well, now look at it. Those teams are relatively going to be the same moving forward. Maybe I am wrong about the center field purchase, but I really really think it's coming. Other than that, it is what it is with the organizational assets.

Based on raw data, and using $100 million as a baseline, I think it's a smart question, do they keep Johnson, or is it better moving forward over the next 3 years to get a stud calibre 3B like Olt, more pitching depth, and "salary relief" through being able to sign a #3/4 on a 3 year deal, and use extra funds to patch holes elsewhere on the team.

It's a tough question. Ace, or young 3B/flexibility (again another assumption, I feel they only trade JJ for a 3B package, or I guess an amazing 2B could work too, but yea).

I think the Marlins will probably notice the fact that there aren't many third baseman available within the next two years, be blown away by the Rangers offer after they get desperate and accept the Rangers trade.

We have about 7 starting pitching candidates within the next 2 seasons but no one coming up within the infield. That's not even counting who we might get from Texas.

[lou]

Upon further consideration after taking a 30 min baseball break.

I really want Olt/other guys, but I'm keeping Johnson for 2013. I'm bringing in a CF longterm, SP 3/4 on a 1 year (Javy Vazquez god willingly), and moderate veteran help for LF/3B. Maybe a better backup catcher too money permitting.

If the team is contending, I trade away non-Fernandez minor league pitching for a 2B/3B upgrade (wherever Bonifacio isn't) in July. If not contending, I do exactly what they did in 2012, I move Johnson, Nolasco, and god willingly Buck or Bell, and get best players available. If they can get a Turner level prospect for Anibal/Infante, they can get a Turner level prospect for Johnson from a contender next trade deadline. Maybe not a huge 3-4 guy package, but at least one young guy, and I would target a 2B/3B to slot into 2014 and longterm. Everyone else, salary relief if possible and marginal AA relievers is fine.

Come 2014, if they contended, resign JJ, accept the black hole at 2B/3B opposite Bonifacio another year, and promote rest of rotation/bench from within. Not ideal, but likely still a very strong team. If the didn't contend, there is $15-20 million to spend on 2 starting pitchers and the bench, as they will have filled the "opposite' Bonifacio spot the preceding deadline by dishing JJ.

This lets them move forward as strong as they can in 2013, and if they suck again, go for the longterm 2B/3B option next deadline and try again with new starting pitchers in 2014.
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I think the Marlins will probably notice the fact that there aren't many third baseman available within the next two years, be blown away by the Rangers offer after they get desperate and accept the Rangers trade.

We have about 7 starting pitching candidates within the next 2 seasons but no one coming up within the infield. That's not even counting who we might get from Texas.

I think we can couch it in terms of "longterm 2B/3B." While Bonifacio should be at 2B, if they can nab an above average longterm player at either spot that is club controlled for awhile, either serves the same purpose and worry about the other when Bonifacio is gone post 2014.

As I just typed the above, I think after way to much thought into this, I'm sticking with that route and keeping JJ.

But I can say, if there is some astronomical "Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon" deal that Texas offers with Olt, Martin, and a premium rotational arm, obviously everything is out the window and they might be forced into taking that.

Wait and see on that. I guess it boils down to being "blown away." I'm probably happy either way. I'm only not happy if they don't get a good package.

[kusch]

Is it possible Cano becomes available? Or is NY definitely exercising the option?

[lou]

Definitely exercising the option

[HUGG]

Totally random made up thing in my head: it'd be nice if the Pirates decided they wanted CLee and we could get Jordy Mercer from them.

He's certainly worth sticking at either 2B or 3B for the rest of the season and seeing what he does.

Ideally, he'd become a utility infielder, but could be slightly better than the "black hole" option for the next couple years.

And he seems like a realistic type of piece to be able to get for Lee. Prospect not ranked in their top 20.

[lou]

If Carlos Lee gets a Matt Dominguez type for 2B or 3B, I am down.

Yes, I realize what I just said.

[Erick]

I know most will disagree, but I'd like to say that I still dislike the pointless Carlos Lee trade.

[lou]

I know most will disagree, but I'd like to say that I still dislike the pointless Carlos Lee trade.

They thought they would get better, they didn't, and Stanton got hurt. It was a modest trade that was supposed to set up something bigger I'm sure, but then they kept sucking and the trades happened. This is not something to care about, and end of the day, he will recoup nearly everything that was sent out. They'll get something for him, so no harm done to anything.

[nny]

I don't really think we'll get much for Lee at all.

-He's sucked even more since then
-Houston ate a ton of money to trade him, so we had to pay more in specs

[Mainge]

Absolutely hated that Lee trade.

[Chewford]

The Lee trade was nothing. I'd rather have Murphy over Matt Dominguez at 3B for the time being and Rob Rassmussen was literally my 8th grade science teacher.
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trollin' trollin' trollin'

Well, a lot of people defended the last fire sale and were condescending saying this team would be oh so excellent those years as a result. And here we are now.

[Bobbob1313]

Well, a lot of people defended the last fire sale and were condescending saying this team would be oh so excellent those years as a result. And here we are now.

I think there is a difference between having flawed logic and having an outcome be different than what you said it could be.